River Flood Warning 4, NWS Lincoln, IL

283 
WGUS83 KILX 201613
FLSILX

FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1013 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...
  Spoon River at London Mills affecting Fulton and Knox Counties.
  Spoon River at Seville affecting Fulton County.

.Significant rises continue along the Spoon River, in response to
1 to 1.5 inches of rain falling overnight, plus the snow melt of
the past couple days. As the ground is frozen, all of this is 
running off. The rain and melting snow will continue to push the
river upward, and flooding should develop early Friday morning.

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC057-095-210613-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0003.140221T1021Z-140223T1424Z/
/LNMI2.1.ER.140221T1021Z.140222T0600Z.140223T0824Z.NO/
1013 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Spoon River at London Mills. 
* from late tonight to Sunday morning.
* At  945 AM Thursday the stage was 7.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow morning and 
  continue to rise to near 18.0 feet by early Saturday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by early Sunday morning.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Fri    Sat    Sun

Spoon River
 London Mills      15   7.3 Thu 10 AM   15.6   17.9   14.4


&&

LAT...LON 4081 9020 4079 9012 4070 9024 4058 9027
      4059 9036 4071 9032             

$$

ILC057-210612-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0004.140221T2120Z-140223T1836Z/
/SEVI2.1.ER.140221T2120Z.140222T1200Z.140223T1236Z.UU/
1013 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Spoon River at Seville. 
* from Friday afternoon to Sunday afternoon.
* At  945 AM Thursday the stage was 9.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 24.0 feet by Saturday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Easterly access road to Seville inundated.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Fri    Sat    Sun

Spoon River
 Seville           22   9.4 Thu 10 AM   18.6   24.0   22.1


&&

LAT...LON 4059 9036 4058 9027 4045 9029 4037 9011
      4030 9015 4041 9040             

$$
Geelhart

074 
WGUS83 KILX 210231
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
831 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Spoon River at London Mills affecting Fulton and Knox Counties
  Spoon River at Seville affecting Fulton County

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC057-095-211631-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0003.140221T0241Z-140224T0210Z/
/LNMI2.1.ER.140221T0241Z.140222T0600Z.140223T2010Z.NO/
831 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Spoon River at London Mills. 
* until Sunday evening.
* At  745 PM Thursday the stage was 14.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 20.0 feet by early Saturday morning.The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Sunday afternoon.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Fri    Sat    Sun

Spoon River
 London Mills      15  14.8 Thu 8 PM    17.8   20.0   16.5


&&

LAT...LON 4081 9020 4079 9012 4070 9024 4058 9027
      4059 9036 4071 9032             

$$

ILC057-211630-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0004.140221T0842Z-140223T1930Z/
/SEVI2.1.ER.140221T0842Z.140222T0600Z.140223T1330Z.UU/
831 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Spoon River at Seville. 
* from late tonight to Sunday afternoon.
* At  745 PM Thursday the stage was 19.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow morning and 
  continue to rise to near 24.7 feet by early Saturday morning.The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Residences in Bernadotte begin to flood.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Fri    Sat    Sun

Spoon River
 Seville           22  19.9 Thu 8 PM    23.1   24.6   22.3


&&

LAT...LON 4059 9036 4058 9027 4045 9029 4037 9011
      4030 9015 4041 9040             

$$

135 
WGUS83 KILX 211708
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1108 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Spoon River at London Mills affecting Fulton and Knox Counties
  Spoon River at Seville affecting Fulton County

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC057-095-220708-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140223T2327Z/
/LNMI2.1.ER.140221T0201Z.140222T0600Z.140223T1727Z.NO/
1108 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Spoon River at London Mills. 
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At 1045 AM Friday the stage was 19.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 20.0 feet by 
  early tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Sunday morning.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Sat    Sun    Mon

Spoon River
 London Mills      15  19.5 Fri 11 AM   19.5   16.0   12.3


&&

LAT...LON 4081 9020 4079 9012 4070 9024 4058 9027
      4059 9036 4071 9032             

$$

ILC057-220000-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140222T0000Z/
/SEVI2.1.ER.140221T0534Z.140221T1030Z.140221T1800Z.UU/
1108 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Spoon River at Seville. 
* until this evening.
* At 1045 AM Friday the stage was 22.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this afternoon.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Water begins to flood agricultural areas 
  near the river.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Sat    Sun    Mon

Spoon River
 Seville           22  22.1 Fri 11 AM   21.2   18.7   15.8


&&

LAT...LON 4059 9036 4058 9027 4045 9029 4037 9011
      4030 9015 4041 9040             

$$

197 
WGUS83 KILX 212022
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
222 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2014
 

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Illinois...

  Spoon River at Seville affecting Fulton County

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation. River levels are 
expected to continue falling.

Since flooding has subsided, this will be the last statement for this
flooding event.

ILC057-212052-
/O.CAN.KILX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140222T0000Z/
/SEVI2.1.ER.140221T0534Z.140221T1030Z.140221T1737Z.UU/
222 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Spoon River at Seville.
* At  145 PM Friday the stage was 21.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 1137 AM Friday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 21.2 feet by tomorrow
  morning.

&&

                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Sat    Sun    Mon

Spoon River
 Seville           22  21.9 Fri 2 PM    21.2   18.7   15.8

&&

LAT...LON 4059 9036 4058 9027 4045 9029 4037 9011
      4030 9015 4041 9040             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
856 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 856 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2014

Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage across
northern Missouri/southern Iowa on the nose of a strengthening
low-level jet. As this jet energy shifts northeastward, rain will
spread into west-central Illinois by around midnight then across
the remainder of the area overnight. Based on trajectory of jet,
greatest rain chances will remain focused across the northern half
of the KILX CWA where categorical POPs are currently in place. 00z
NAM forecast soundings show a pronounced layer of elevated
instability developing as well, supporting the threat for a few
thunderstorms with small hail.

Based on 00z NAM and coordination with surrounding offices, will
be issuing a High Wind Watch for tomorrow evening. Low pressure
deepens from 992mb over eastern Kansas Thursday morning to 984mb
over southwest Wisconsin by evening. Impressive pressure rises in
the wake of the low and passing cold front will lead to very
strong winds, possibly gusting over 50 mph. Zone update will be
issued shortly.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 548 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2014

Challenging TAF forecast begins later tonight and continues
through 00Z/Fri as a low pressure system develops to our west and
rapidly strengthens, tracking into southern WI Thu evening. A
strong low level jet is forecast to develop across the region
tonight and bring a rapid increase in showers and thunderstorms
after midnight. This process is already underway across northern
MO. Model forecasts show 50kt winds at 1500 ft AGL overnight and
have included LLWS through 12/13Z. Waves of showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected for much of Thursday morning and into
the afternoon, along with IFR ceilings and visibilities. Some
stronger storms possible during the afternoon ahead of a strong
could front would be capable of brief greatly reduced cig/vsbys
and variable gusty winds but did not include in this set of TAFS
due to timing/location uncertainty. Strong cold front is progged
to move west to east across TAF sites from 21-23Z ending the
shower/storm threat. Strong/gusty south winds ahead of the front
will veer to the southwest behind the front, and increase with gusts
to 35 kts.

25
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 220 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2014

Pleasant weather conditions prevail across central through
southeast Illinois early this afternoon as weak high pressure
drifts across the region. Already seeing an increase in high
level cloudiness in advance of our next potent weather system
pushing into the Rockies. Early afternoon temperatures range
from the mid 30s over the heavier snowpacked areas across our
north and east counties...to around 50 degrees along the I-70
corridor.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms to produce locally heavy rainfall over
the next 24 to 30 hours, especially across the north half of the
forecast area, increasing the threat for flooding along area rivers
and streams. Secondary concern will be the severe threat which SPC
has shifted further south and east with its latest Day 2 outlook.

Model-wise, the NAM-WRF has trended further southeast with the track
of the surface low, as it elongates the wave over Missouri, resulting
in a flatter trajectory, at least initially, before the wave deepens
as the upper system closes off and becomes more negatively tilted
later in the forecast period. Meanwhile...the preferred GFS and
latest ECMWF solutions continue from their previous forecasts in
taking the surface low further west and north, which is supported
by the latest Short Range Ensembles. Impressive 850 mb theta-e
advection for February develops later this evening as the low level
jet increases to our west. This should result in rapid development
of showers and thunderstorms to our southwest, which should track
northeast later this evening into our west in the 03z to 06z time
frame and over the remainder of the area by dawn Thursday. Models
showing Most Unstable Capes of 150-300 j/kg across parts of northeast
Missouri by late tonight so some of the convection will have the
capability of producing hail in addition to some locally heavy
rainfall. Initially, higher POPs will be from west central through
east central Illinois, north of the 850 mb warm front, which by
morning should be north of our area. Precipitable water values by
late Thursday morning soar to 1.20 inches over the southern half of
our forecast area, well above normal for the middle of February.

Heaviest rainfall looks to be along and north of a Rushville to
Springfield to Champaign line where 0.80 to 1.25 inches will fall
by Thursday afternoon. Unfortunately, this where the deeper snowpack
is located, so we will continue to rapidly melt off the snow thru
tomorrow evening with nowhere for the water to go as the ground
remains frozen. Initially, the snowpack may be able to absorb
some of the rain but as we continue to advect higher dew point air
into the region Thursday morning, its going to be a losing battle
with runoff problems in most areas into the evening hours. River
levels along the Illinois, Spoon and Sangamon basins will be most
affected over the next couple of days based on the current QPF
forecasts, with our far southeast rivers seeing the potential for
significant rises for later in the week.  With the current track
of the surface low, temperatures are going to vary widely across
the forecast area with readings warming into the upper 40s far
north to possibly approaching 70 degrees south of Interstate 70.

As far as the severe threat is concerned, the rather large snow
pack centered over the north half of our area will produce a very
pronounced near surface stable layer/weak buoyancy which should
limit the potential for damaging winds at the surface across at
least the north half of the forecast area. As a result, SPC has
adjusted the Day2 slight risk further south, mainly along the I-70
corridor for tomorrow afternoon. Looking back on some of the CIPS
Analog guidance from the past several days, the main area of concern
for more widespread severe weather has been consistently over parts
of southern and southeast Illinois, with this mornings analogs depicting
a more significant area for widespread severe weather just southeast
of I-70 into parts of west central Ky into Tennessee. With the deep
layerd shear profiles depicted on models with this intensifying
surface and upper air system, we can't rule out some low topped
convection further north which may produce some localized 60-65
mph winds, but at this time it appears the more widespread threat
will be over southeast Illinois tomorrow afternoon.

As the surface low intensifies later tomorrow morning and tracks
west of the Illinois River, the cold front is expected to race
across our area during the afternoon. As the low tracks well to
our north late tomorrow afternoon, strong pressure rises will follow
the passage of the cold front tomorrow evening bringing the threat
for at least advisory type wind gusts for at least our north half
thru the evening hours. With the speed of the system, it appears any
precip transition to snow will be to our west and north Thursday night.
Not a great deal of cold air to funnel southeast in the wake of
the system for Friday with afternoon temperatures expected to top
out in the 40s. Models continue to show a weak disturbance tracking
over our area Friday night, but forcing and moisture not impressive
with this system, so other than some low chance POPs across the
north, not expecting much from this feature as it tracks to our
east by Saturday dragging a cold front southeast through the
forecast area.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

All medium range models indicate another negative height anomaly sets
up again near James Bay resulting in a return to much colder weather
for the remainder of the month. Canadian high pressure will be edging
southeast into the region during this period bringing a gradual downturn
in temperatures as we head into a new work week. Several weak disturbances
embedded in the northwest flow will bring light snow chances late Sunday
and again late Monday into early Tuesday with below normal temperatures
once again dominating the weather across the Midwest.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH from 3 AM CST Thursday through Thursday afternoon
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>053.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>053-201200-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-
MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
311 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER HALF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-72. THE RAINFALL AND
WATER FROM SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS...
ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND WHERE STORM DRAINS ARE
CLOGGED BY ICE AND SNOW. THE COPIOUS MOISTURE MAY ALSO RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME
STRONG WINDS. ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. RIVER
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND SOME THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR RIVER FLOODING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS...AS THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND WATER RUNOFF
CAUSE ICE TO BREAK UP AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM.

STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE STORM
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY THURSDAY
EVENING...HIGHEST NORTH OF I-74.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-201200-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
311 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE STARTING TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE APPROACHING STORM WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-70...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY. THE RAINFALL AND WATER FROM SNOW
MELT WILL CAUSE A FEW FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND WHERE STORM DRAINS ARE CLOGGED BY ICE AND SNOW.
RIVER LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL...AND SOME RIVER FLOODING
MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE STORM
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH LIKELY THURSDAY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GEELHART