Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Lincoln, IL

May 21, 2014Coles County, Douglas County, Edgar County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 21, 2014, 4:41 PM CDT for Coles County, Douglas County, Edgar County, Illinois. It was in force for 64 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 2014, 4:41 PM CDT (21:41 UTC)
Expired: May 21, 2014, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Lincoln, IL
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 2.75 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

Counties Coles County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL

The radar

The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 21, 4:55 PM CDT	HAIL 1.5	5 S Newman, IL	DELAYED REPORT.
May 21, 5:00 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Brocton, IL	HAIL SIZE WAS MAINLY PEAS TO NICKELS WITH LARGEST HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 14 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 21, 2:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 806 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -144 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1032 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 156 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 108 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

500 
WUUS53 KILX 212141
SVRILX
ILC029-041-045-212245-
/O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0037.140521T2141Z-140521T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
441 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN COLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  SOUTHERN EDGAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 438 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OAKLAND...
  AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

  HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.
           EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
           SIDING AND VEHICLES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARIS...BROCTON...KANSAS...REDMON...OLIVER...VERMILION...ISABEL...
  BORTON AND BELL RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3948 8769 3949 8769 3948 8792 3964 8817
      3980 8807 3965 8752 3948 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 293DEG 28KT 3967 8799

HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

CHS

2 follow-up statements

724 
WWUS53 KILX 212210
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
510 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

ILC029-041-212220-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-140521T2245Z/
COLES IL-DOUGLAS IL-
510 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS AND
NORTHEASTERN COLES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3948 8769 3949 8769 3949 8793 3951 8796
      3975 8796 3965 8752 3948 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 307DEG 29KT 3956 8783

$$

ILC045-212245-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-140521T2245Z/
EDGAR IL-
510 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN EDGAR
COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 507 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KANSAS...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARIS...OLIVER...VERMILION AND BELL RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3948 8769 3949 8769 3949 8793 3951 8796
      3975 8796 3965 8752 3948 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 307DEG 29KT 3956 8783

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

CHS

859 
WWUS53 KILX 212220
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
520 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

ILC045-212230-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-140521T2245Z/
EDGAR IL-
520 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN EDGAR COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

LAT...LON 3948 8769 3949 8769 3949 8793 3951 8796
      3975 8796 3965 8752 3948 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 307DEG 29KT 3951 8775

$$

CHS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 21, 1:58 PM CDT, 2 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 21, 1:58 PM CDT, 2 hours 43 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
158 PM CDT Wed May 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 158 PM CDT Wed May 21 2014

Severe storm potential will highlight the short term. A brief period
of cooler temps will close out the week, before a long wave ridge
builds into our area for the weekend. As that ridge slides east
later this weekend, a few late afternoon thunderstorms could bubble
up in our western areas on Sunday and Memorial Day as moisture
and heat return to IL.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.

The initial severe thunderstorm watch #164 does not include any of
IL, but we still expect some thunderstorms to develop along the
cold front in IL later this afternoon. At 18z/1 pm, the front
extended on a line through Bloomington and Rushville. Surface
dewpoints ahead of the front had climbed into the mid 60s, with
air temps in the mid to upper 80s. Surface based CAPEs were in the
2800-3300 J/kg, with 0-6km wind shear of 35-50kts. LAPS soundings
were indicating little to no cap above the LCL. We should see some
of the storms become strong in our area, with very large hail the
main hazard and damaging winds possible. Supercell formation
appears likely at the onset, with the better chances of linear
progression most likely occurring after the storms advance eastward
into Indiana. The cumulus field on across C IL appears to be
deepening, with some towering cu. A watch may be needed in IL in
the 2-3 pm time frame.

Will maintain high chance PoPs the rest of the afternoon and into
the evening, as coverage could be limited by breaks in the line of
storm cells that develop.

The latest 4km model HRRR output shows rather limited coverage of
storms on an E-W line along and south of I-72, with storms
generally south of our CWA by 06z/1am. Will keep PoPs after
midnight limited to the far southern areas.

The cold front forward progress will slow down and stall near the
southern tip of IL, keeping shower and storm chances close by to
the south and west of our forecast area. We held onto a narrow
area of slight chance PoPs along our far southern counties on
Thurs and Thur night as a result.

Surface high pressure and a building ridge aloft should help keep
our area rain free on Friday and Saturday as moisture return will
be primarily into the Missouri and areas west.

A brief cooler period will occur from Thursday into Friday behind
today's cold front. Highs will still linger right around normal in
the mid to upper 70s. Saturday will see temps begin a warming
trend, but highs will still remain mainly in the upper 70s.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.

Warming through a deeper layer will develop on Sunday as the
surface ridge axis slides east of Illinois and southerly return
flow increases. Low and mid level moisture content will increase as
well, with dewpoints returning to the 60s west of I-55 on Sunday.
Thunderstorm chances will be mainly west of our forecast area, in
the vicinity of a surface trough along the Mississippi river
valley. Instability params support storm progression into western
IL, so we went with low chance and slight chance PoPs west of
I-55. A weakening of the surface trough and increasing cap
strength on Memorial Day may help to diminish storm chances a
little. However, an weak disturbance in the 400-600 mb layer
could cause a few isolated storms. We went with slight chance PoPs
NW of a line from Springfield to Champaign, for mainly late
afternoon/early evening storm potential. Most areas should remain
dry though. Memorial Day looks to be the warmest day of the
holiday weekend, as highs return to the mid 80s. Dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s will make it feel a bit humid outside as well.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the ECMWF, and to some extent the GFS,
progress an upper low into the ridge, triggering a wider coverage
of showers and storms. Low chance PoPs were included for all our
counties Tuesday and Wednesday to account for the relative
agreement on a wetter solution. Increasing clouds and rain
potential should keep high temps in the 70s both days.

Shimon
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1247 PM CDT Wed May 21 2014

A frontal boundary will sag south into central IL this afternoon
and evening. Some isolated to scatted storm are expected to
develop this afternoon along and ahead of the front, though
coverage is expected to be too low to include in TAFS beyond VCTS.
If a terminal is impacted by TSRA, short reduction to IFR
possible with brief strong/gusty winds. Otherwise VFR expected
through Thu AM with diurnal cumulus this afternoon and scattered
mid clouds overnight. W/SW winds ahead of the front will veer to
the north this evening after the frontal passage, generally
remaining under 10 kts.

25
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 21, 3:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
326 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

ILZ029-031-037-038-042>046-053>057-062-063-221100-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-
MACON-MCLEAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
326 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORM
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY WEST OF I-55.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH 8 PM.

ILZ027-028-030-036-040-041-047>052-061-221100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-SANGAMON-
SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-
326 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS...WITH HAIL OVER 1 INCH AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NORTHWEST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY WEST OF
I-55.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 8 PM.

ILZ066>068-071>073-221100-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
326 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

MINOR FLOODING WILL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER UPSTREAM
OF VINCENNES AND DOWNSTREAM OF TERRE HAUTE THROUGH SUNSET THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SHIMON

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 21, 4:07 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
407 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             CHAMPAIGN               40.11N 88.26W
05/21/2014  M0.75 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HAIL REPORTED AT THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CITY BY NWS
            EMPLOYEE.

&&

GOETSCH

Local storm report, May 21, 4:11 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
411 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     HAIL             4 NW TUSCOLA            39.84N 88.33W
05/21/2014  M2.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0407 PM     HAIL             3 NW TUSCOLA            39.83N 88.32W
05/21/2014  M1.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0410 PM     HAIL             TUSCOLA                 39.80N 88.28W
05/21/2014  M1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHIMON

Local storm report, May 21, 4:16 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
416 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             4 E TUSCOLA             39.80N 88.21W
05/21/2014  M1.50 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORT - RELAYED BY COUNTY EMA

&&

SHIMON

Local storm report, May 21, 4:23 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
423 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             TUSCOLA                 39.80N 88.28W
05/21/2014  M1.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL FELL FOR 10 MINUTES FROM 405 PM TO 415 PM. LARGEST
            HAIL STONES WERE THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.

&&

SHIMON

Local storm report, May 21, 4:28 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
428 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             3 NW TUSCOLA            39.83N 88.32W
05/21/2014  M2.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGEST HAIL SIZE REACHED 2.25 INCHES JUST BEFORE ENDING

&&

SHIMON

Local storm report, May 21, 4:40 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
440 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             1 WNW TUSCOLA           39.80N 88.30W
05/21/2014  M4.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGEST HAILSTONES WERE 4 INCHES. MANY 3 INCH HAILSTONES
            NEARBY. 4 INCH HAIL ALSO REPORTED BY NSSL/SHAVE PROJECT.

&&

SHIMON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 2:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	DeWitt, McLean, Piatt	57 min
May 21, 2:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Vermilion	47 min
May 21, 3:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Champaign, Douglas, Piatt	54 min
May 21, 3:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Champaign	63 min
May 21, 3:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Champaign, Coles, Douglas, Edgar	47 min
May 21, 4:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Champaign, Edgar, Vermilion	44 min
May 21, 4:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Vermilion	64 min
May 21, 4:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Champaign, Piatt	66 min
May 21, 5:23 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ILX	Champaign, Piatt	6 hr
May 21, 5:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Champaign	48 min
May 21, 6:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Champaign, Douglas, Edgar, Vermilion	62 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.