Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Lincoln, IL

059 
WWUS53 KILX 212043
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
343 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

ILC019-041-147-212115-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-140521T2115Z/
PIATT IL-CHAMPAIGN IL-DOUGLAS IL-
343 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
DOUGLAS...SOUTHWESTERN CHAMPAIGN AND EAST CENTRAL PIATT COUNTIES
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 342 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ATWOOD...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOLONO...PESOTUM...SADORUS AND WILLARD AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3981 8821 3986 8858 4005 8856 4005 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 281DEG 26KT 3987 8846

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

CHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
158 PM CDT Wed May 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 158 PM CDT Wed May 21 2014

Severe storm potential will highlight the short term. A brief period
of cooler temps will close out the week, before a long wave ridge
builds into our area for the weekend. As that ridge slides east
later this weekend, a few late afternoon thunderstorms could bubble
up in our western areas on Sunday and Memorial Day as moisture
and heat return to IL.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.

The initial severe thunderstorm watch #164 does not include any of
IL, but we still expect some thunderstorms to develop along the
cold front in IL later this afternoon. At 18z/1 pm, the front
extended on a line through Bloomington and Rushville. Surface
dewpoints ahead of the front had climbed into the mid 60s, with
air temps in the mid to upper 80s. Surface based CAPEs were in the
2800-3300 J/kg, with 0-6km wind shear of 35-50kts. LAPS soundings
were indicating little to no cap above the LCL. We should see some
of the storms become strong in our area, with very large hail the
main hazard and damaging winds possible. Supercell formation
appears likely at the onset, with the better chances of linear
progression most likely occurring after the storms advance eastward
into Indiana. The cumulus field on across C IL appears to be
deepening, with some towering cu. A watch may be needed in IL in
the 2-3 pm time frame.

Will maintain high chance PoPs the rest of the afternoon and into
the evening, as coverage could be limited by breaks in the line of
storm cells that develop.

The latest 4km model HRRR output shows rather limited coverage of
storms on an E-W line along and south of I-72, with storms
generally south of our CWA by 06z/1am. Will keep PoPs after
midnight limited to the far southern areas.

The cold front forward progress will slow down and stall near the
southern tip of IL, keeping shower and storm chances close by to
the south and west of our forecast area. We held onto a narrow
area of slight chance PoPs along our far southern counties on
Thurs and Thur night as a result.

Surface high pressure and a building ridge aloft should help keep
our area rain free on Friday and Saturday as moisture return will
be primarily into the Missouri and areas west.

A brief cooler period will occur from Thursday into Friday behind
today's cold front. Highs will still linger right around normal in
the mid to upper 70s. Saturday will see temps begin a warming
trend, but highs will still remain mainly in the upper 70s.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday.

Warming through a deeper layer will develop on Sunday as the
surface ridge axis slides east of Illinois and southerly return
flow increases. Low and mid level moisture content will increase as
well, with dewpoints returning to the 60s west of I-55 on Sunday.
Thunderstorm chances will be mainly west of our forecast area, in
the vicinity of a surface trough along the Mississippi river
valley. Instability params support storm progression into western
IL, so we went with low chance and slight chance PoPs west of
I-55. A weakening of the surface trough and increasing cap
strength on Memorial Day may help to diminish storm chances a
little. However, an weak disturbance in the 400-600 mb layer
could cause a few isolated storms. We went with slight chance PoPs
NW of a line from Springfield to Champaign, for mainly late
afternoon/early evening storm potential. Most areas should remain
dry though. Memorial Day looks to be the warmest day of the
holiday weekend, as highs return to the mid 80s. Dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s will make it feel a bit humid outside as well.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the ECMWF, and to some extent the GFS,
progress an upper low into the ridge, triggering a wider coverage
of showers and storms. Low chance PoPs were included for all our
counties Tuesday and Wednesday to account for the relative
agreement on a wetter solution. Increasing clouds and rain
potential should keep high temps in the 70s both days.

Shimon
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1247 PM CDT Wed May 21 2014

A frontal boundary will sag south into central IL this afternoon
and evening. Some isolated to scatted storm are expected to
develop this afternoon along and ahead of the front, though
coverage is expected to be too low to include in TAFS beyond VCTS.
If a terminal is impacted by TSRA, short reduction to IFR
possible with brief strong/gusty winds. Otherwise VFR expected
through Thu AM with diurnal cumulus this afternoon and scattered
mid clouds overnight. W/SW winds ahead of the front will veer to
the north this evening after the frontal passage, generally
remaining under 10 kts.

25
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

ILZ027>031-036-037-221700-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
1146 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-040>057-061-221700-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
1146 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 7 PM TODAY
SOUTHEAST OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-221700-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
1146 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

MINOR FLOODING WILL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER UPSTREAM
OF VINCENNES AND DOWNSTREAM OF TERRE HAUTE THROUGH SUNSET THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF AN
EFFINGHAM TO LAWRENCEVILLE LINE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
313 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             2 W ROSSVILLE           40.38N 87.71W
05/21/2014  M1.00 INCH       VERMILION          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 1 INCH HAIL TO COUNTY
            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

GOETSCH