Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
545 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED EARLY TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA THIS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW IS STILL VALID AND THINKING THAT SVR
THREAT OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OF CWA IS NOT EXISTENT...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE RAPID LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ENERGY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
STORMS THROUGH CWA WILL HAVE TO BE BROUGHT WITH THE FRONT AND IT
JUST APPEARS TO HAVE SOME SHEAR IN ITS FAVOR. ACTIVE CELLS ALONG
IT HAVE PUSHED OUT A BLANKETING CLOUD DECK THAT WILL INHIBIT THE
INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR THEM TO PRODUCE A TORNADIC SUPERCELL.
SOME ISOLD SEVERE IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND N OF I-70 CORRIDOR. PREV DISC FOLLOWS->

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN CWA WILL
NOT PERMIT ANY RUNAWAY TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DE-STABILIZE DURING THE REMAINING BULK OF
DAYLIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
EXTENDING SSW THROUGH INDIANA EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO OHIO IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...THINK THAT THE TOR THREAT IS MINIMIZED OUTSIDE
OF THE IMMEDIATE LINE OVER MAJORITY OF CWA. TIMING PROG HAS THE
LINE IN WESTERN CWA AT ABOUT 5:30-6 PM AND I JUST CAN'T SEE THE
INSTABILITY HOLDING TOUGH OVER SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 6 THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME...THOUGH IT IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL ALONG THE LINE TO PERSIST
AND CROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE VALID WATCH TIME OF 9PM.

TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE AFTER THE UPPER LOW CROSSES
NEAR THE 6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS IT COMBINES TO PUSH NW FLOW
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR TOMORROW...AT
LEAST A VERY BKN CU FIELD. SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD SPRINKLES APPEAR
TO BE INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH SOUTH
TO THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THAT FAR SOUTH
ON TUES OR WED.

CUTOFF LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH
A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.

LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
313 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-281915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
313 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON HAVE AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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