Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1023 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OHIO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
MID DAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. MULTIPLE MODES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE MODE
WILL BE MORE IN THE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER
LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. DUE TO THIS THERE IS A HIGHER THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO ANYWHERE IN THE FA. THERE IS A DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. CONTINUED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD LEAD TO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AROUND
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KCVG THROUGH THE MID MORNING
AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST BY THIS EVENING AND WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ063>065-
     070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...LATTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
422 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088-
280830-
FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-
CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-
ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-
CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
SCIOTO-
422 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 71.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-280830-
WAYNE-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-
MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-
422 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

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