Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT...STRETCHING FROM IOWA TO NORTHWEST KS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AFTER 22Z FROM THE
COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE/STRONG HEATING ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPS
REMAIN VERY WARM. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN KS THIS EVENING...A PROGGED 40 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS IN THE 01Z-05Z TIME FRAME. EXTREME INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 3000-4500 J/KG) WILL BE IN PLACE LATE THIS PM/EARLY
EVE...AS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER FLOW INCREASES DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KNOTS. THIS SUPPORTS SEVERE MULTICELL AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES LATE THIS PM/EARLY EVE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO ALONG THE FRONT
GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE LATER
IN THE EVE/OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BECOMING HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING. THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST BRIEF
STORM ECHO TRAINING IN THIS AREA...WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
INCREASING TO 3-4 KM AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW'S OF 1.75-2.40
INCHES. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
SW/SCNTRL KS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL HOLD ONTO
LINGERING STORM CHANCES IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE OUR AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY-THURSDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE MEAN UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A BELT OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
SEMI-PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN
PROSPECTS FOR STORM COMPLEXES IS PROGGED JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (20-40%) APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...WITH SEASONALLY VERY
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION...SOME LOCALLY STRONG AND WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  84  64  82 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  86  62  82 / 100  20  10  10
NEWTON          68  84  62  81 /  90  20  10  10
ELDORADO        67  83  63  81 /  70  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  84  65  83 /  80  50  20  10
RUSSELL         63  84  58  81 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      63  84  59  81 /  30  20  10   0
SALINA          66  85  59  82 /  20  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       66  85  61  81 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  84  66  83 /  50  40  30  10
CHANUTE         69  83  64  81 /  50  30  10  10
IOLA            69  82  63  80 /  40  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  83  65  82 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ067>069-082-083-
091>093.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
835 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-020145-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
835 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
HAVING THE HIGHEST THREAT. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. IN
ADDITION...VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING. THE HIGHEST
FLOOD THREAT IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG THE COW CREEK
IN RICE AND NORTHEAST RENO COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1059 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

KSZ051-067-068-010430-
HARVEY-MCPHERSON-RENO-
1059 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  RENO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1055 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SYLVIA TO
  BUHLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BURRTON...BUHLER...NICKERSON...INMAN AND WILLOWBROOK.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9848 3817 9822 3816 9821 3817 9792
      3833 9792 3833 9755 3791 9754 3791 9770
      3773 9805 3773 9845 3789 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 236DEG 14KT 3796 9842 3811 9776

PEARCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1105 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     FLOOD            HUTCHINSON              38.07N 97.91W
06/30/2014                   RENO               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING ACROSS HUTCHINSON.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1112 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             6 W HUTCHINSON          38.07N 98.02W
06/30/2014  E1.00 INCH       RENO               KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT.

&&

ADK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1112 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

KSZ052-010445-
MARION-
1112 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOESSEL...OR 15 MILES WEST OF
  MARION...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARION...LEHIGH...HILLSBORO AND MARION LAKE.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 9701 3817 9715 3818 9716 3817 9737
      3818 9737 3836 9738 3840 9737 3841 9701
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 202DEG 16KT 3828 9728

PEARCE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

KSZ068-010515-
HARVEY-
1141 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALTON...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF
  NEWTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WALTON.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 9751 3818 9750 3818 9715 3798 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 255DEG 12KT 3813 9730

PEARCE