Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Wichita, KS

202 
WWUS53 KICT 010159
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
859 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

KSC155-010230-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0175.000000T0000Z-140701T0230Z/
RENO KS-
859 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN RENO
COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 855 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST 
OF PARTRIDGE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING 
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST RENO COUNTY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. 

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRETTY PRAIRIE...HAVEN...YODER AND CHENEY LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3799 9829 3797 9770 3774 9770 3773 9846
      3785 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 282DEG 21KT 3789 9801

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

KLEINSASSER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT...STRETCHING FROM IOWA TO NORTHWEST KS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AFTER 22Z FROM THE
COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE/STRONG HEATING ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPS
REMAIN VERY WARM. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN KS THIS EVENING...A PROGGED 40 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS IN THE 01Z-05Z TIME FRAME. EXTREME INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 3000-4500 J/KG) WILL BE IN PLACE LATE THIS PM/EARLY
EVE...AS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER FLOW INCREASES DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KNOTS. THIS SUPPORTS SEVERE MULTICELL AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES LATE THIS PM/EARLY EVE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO ALONG THE FRONT
GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE LATER
IN THE EVE/OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BECOMING HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING. THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST BRIEF
STORM ECHO TRAINING IN THIS AREA...WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
INCREASING TO 3-4 KM AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW'S OF 1.75-2.40
INCHES. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
SW/SCNTRL KS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS OUT LATE
TONIGHT.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL HOLD ONTO
LINGERING STORM CHANCES IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE OUR AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY-THURSDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE MEAN UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A BELT OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
SEMI-PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN
PROSPECTS FOR STORM COMPLEXES IS PROGGED JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (20-40%) APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...WITH SEASONALLY VERY
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MID-EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WILL INCLUDE MVFR CATEGORY WITH TSRA
MENTION FOR NOW. AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE IMMINENT FOR A
TERMINAL...WILL LIKELY AMEND FOR LOWER IFR CATEGORY AS NEEDED.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  84  64  82 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  86  62  82 /  70  20  10  10
NEWTON          68  84  62  81 /  70  20  10  10
ELDORADO        67  83  63  81 /  70  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  84  65  83 /  80  50  20  10
RUSSELL         63  84  58  81 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      63  84  59  81 /  30  20  10   0
SALINA          66  85  59  82 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       66  85  61  81 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  84  66  83 /  50  40  30  10
CHANUTE         69  83  64  81 /  50  30  10  10
IOLA            69  82  63  80 /  50  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  83  65  82 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ067>069-082-083-
091>093.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
835 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-020145-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
835 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
HAVING THE HIGHEST THREAT. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. IN
ADDITION...VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING. THE HIGHEST
FLOOD THREAT IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG THE COW CREEK
IN RICE AND NORTHEAST RENO COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP