Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
247 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A STORMY START TO THE DAY TODAY, A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS ONGOING
AT THE MOMENT ACROSS THE HUN CWFA. THE MCS THAT ROLLED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH/EAST, BUT ANOTHER
MCS IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW AS OF THIS WRITING. NW FLOW ALOFT IS
THANKS TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/SRN TX, WITH A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW NE OF THE GREAT LAKES CREATING A PINWHEEL EFFECT
ALOFT, DRIVING THESE FEATURES TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AS THEY DEVELOP
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC MAP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NRN FL, WHICH IS TRANSLATING TO W/SW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS REPORTED ON REGIONAL
METARS. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED WEST TO EAST EXTENDING FROM
NRN AR EASTWARD THROUGH TN AND INTO THE VIRGINIAS.

THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT WILL
REVOLVE AROUND THE CURRENT MCS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA, AND THE NEXT
MCS YET TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT ONE. SB CAPES
~2500 J/KG WILL YIELD MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUSTAIN THESE STORMS
THIS EVENING, CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ~60-70MPH AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL. AMPLE CAPE IS PRESENT IN THE -10C TO -30C REGION ALOFT, SO AM
NOT DISCOUNTING THIS THREAT JUST YET. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT, BY FAR, AS WE'VE SEEN REPORTED UPSTREAM OVER ERN
AR/WRN TN. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE SECONDARY THREAT, WITH AT
LEAST 1-2" POSSIBLE (PWATS ~1.7-1.8"). THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING ISSUES THAT CREPT UP THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST MCS (MAINLY
OVER NE LIMESTONE/NW MADISON COUNTY). 4-5" OF RAIN FELL OVER SOME OF
THESE LOCATIONS, SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT FALLS WILL IMMEDIATELY
CONVERT TO RUNOFF IN THESE AREAS. A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9PM THIS EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE HUN CWFA.

NAM/WRFNMM SHOW THE SECOND MCS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT OVER NE/KS AND MARCHING E/SE TOWARD THE AREA, LIKELY
ARRIVING AROUND 12Z (LIKE THE ONE THIS MORNING DID). AS SUCH, POPS
WERE INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FIRST ONE LINGERING INTO LATE
TONIGHT/THE SECOND ARRIVING CLOSER TO 12Z. POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED
FOR TOMORROW AS THE NEXT MCS TRAVERSES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH REDUCED INSOLATION/INCREASED CLOUD COVER
(CONCURRENT WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH SAGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW). THIS SHOULD HELP TO SPARK
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE THE UPPER
HIGH OVER TX BREAKS DOWN AND REMOVES THE "MCS PARADE" FROM THE
FORECAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND THE BOUNDARY LURKING IN THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A DISTURBANCE CLIPPING THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
DEVELOPING A STRONGER UPPER LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUE/WED.
THE GFS IS MORE NE WITH THIS FEATURE (OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION)
WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS FEATURE CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY (OVER
THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY). EITHER WAY, AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY. AFTN HIGHS
WILL HOVER BETWEEN 85-90F AND MORNING LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
70F THROUGH THURSDAY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THAT
BEING SAID...IN AN UNSTABLE/STORMY NW FLOW...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY PM. NEW ACTIVITY WAS FORMING
OVER THE REGION AS OF TAF ISSUANCE. A T-STORM COMPLEX NOW EAST OF
THE OZARKS COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY...WITH TEMPO
CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS TO MVFR (AND POSSIBLY LOWER) AND ERRATIC WINDS IN
THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD END LATER IN
THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO MVFR
FOG/MIST BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    71  86  69  89 /  70  80  30  30
SHOALS        71  87  68  90 /  70  80  30  30
VINEMONT      69  85  67  88 /  70  70  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  69  84  67  87 /  70  80  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   68  84  66  88 /  70  70  30  30
FORT PAYNE    68  84  66  88 /  60  70  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
519 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-061000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
519 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

AT 520 PM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
FAYETTEVILLE THROUGH HUNTSVILLE AND INTO CULLMAN COUNTY. THESE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS LOW BUT NOT ZERO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS DIMINISHES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER STORM
CHANCES...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE FROM THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
516 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW JONES CHAPEL      34.23N 87.06W
06/05/2014                   CULLMAN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE ELKWOOD           34.96N 86.68W
06/05/2014                   MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOCKING SCOTT ROAD JUST NORTH OF BOBO SECTION
            ROAD.

&&

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
532 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E HUNTSVILLE          34.72N 86.54W
06/05/2014                   MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG WEST POINTE DRIVE SE OVER MONTE SANO.

&&

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
535 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW ARAB              34.30N 86.56W
06/05/2014                   CULLMAN            AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
539 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W NORMAL              34.79N 86.67W
06/05/2014                   MADISON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AND UNKNOWN DAMAGE TO GAS STATION NEAR AL HWY
            53 AND HWY 255.

&&

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
542 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE MOORES MILL       34.79N 86.50W
06/05/2014                   MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

DJN