Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
247 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A STORMY START TO THE DAY TODAY, A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS ONGOING
AT THE MOMENT ACROSS THE HUN CWFA. THE MCS THAT ROLLED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH/EAST, BUT ANOTHER
MCS IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW AS OF THIS WRITING. NW FLOW ALOFT IS
THANKS TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/SRN TX, WITH A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW NE OF THE GREAT LAKES CREATING A PINWHEEL EFFECT
ALOFT, DRIVING THESE FEATURES TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AS THEY DEVELOP
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC MAP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NRN FL, WHICH IS TRANSLATING TO W/SW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS REPORTED ON REGIONAL
METARS. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED WEST TO EAST EXTENDING FROM
NRN AR EASTWARD THROUGH TN AND INTO THE VIRGINIAS.

THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT WILL
REVOLVE AROUND THE CURRENT MCS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA, AND THE NEXT
MCS YET TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT ONE. SB CAPES
~2500 J/KG WILL YIELD MORE THAN ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUSTAIN THESE STORMS
THIS EVENING, CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ~60-70MPH AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL. AMPLE CAPE IS PRESENT IN THE -10C TO -30C REGION ALOFT, SO AM
NOT DISCOUNTING THIS THREAT JUST YET. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT, BY FAR, AS WE'VE SEEN REPORTED UPSTREAM OVER ERN
AR/WRN TN. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE SECONDARY THREAT, WITH AT
LEAST 1-2" POSSIBLE (PWATS ~1.7-1.8"). THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING ISSUES THAT CREPT UP THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST MCS (MAINLY
OVER NE LIMESTONE/NW MADISON COUNTY). 4-5" OF RAIN FELL OVER SOME OF
THESE LOCATIONS, SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT FALLS WILL IMMEDIATELY
CONVERT TO RUNOFF IN THESE AREAS. A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9PM THIS EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE HUN CWFA.

NAM/WRFNMM SHOW THE SECOND MCS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT OVER NE/KS AND MARCHING E/SE TOWARD THE AREA, LIKELY
ARRIVING AROUND 12Z (LIKE THE ONE THIS MORNING DID). AS SUCH, POPS
WERE INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FIRST ONE LINGERING INTO LATE
TONIGHT/THE SECOND ARRIVING CLOSER TO 12Z. POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED
FOR TOMORROW AS THE NEXT MCS TRAVERSES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH REDUCED INSOLATION/INCREASED CLOUD COVER
(CONCURRENT WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH SAGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW). THIS SHOULD HELP TO SPARK
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE THE UPPER
HIGH OVER TX BREAKS DOWN AND REMOVES THE "MCS PARADE" FROM THE
FORECAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND THE BOUNDARY LURKING IN THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A DISTURBANCE CLIPPING THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
DEVELOPING A STRONGER UPPER LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUE/WED.
THE GFS IS MORE NE WITH THIS FEATURE (OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION)
WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS FEATURE CLOSER TO THE TN VALLEY (OVER
THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY). EITHER WAY, AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY. AFTN HIGHS
WILL HOVER BETWEEN 85-90F AND MORNING LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
70F THROUGH THURSDAY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THAT
BEING SAID...IN AN UNSTABLE/STORMY NW FLOW...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY PM. NEW ACTIVITY WAS FORMING
OVER THE REGION AS OF TAF ISSUANCE. A T-STORM COMPLEX NOW EAST OF
THE OZARKS COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY...WITH TEMPO
CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS TO MVFR (AND POSSIBLY LOWER) AND ERRATIC WINDS IN
THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD END LATER IN
THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO MVFR
FOG/MIST BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    71  86  69  89 /  70  80  30  30
SHOALS        71  87  68  90 /  70  80  30  30
VINEMONT      69  85  67  88 /  70  70  30  30
FAYETTEVILLE  69  84  67  87 /  70  80  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   68  84  66  88 /  70  70  30  30
FORT PAYNE    68  84  66  88 /  60  70  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1259 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-061030-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1259 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
IMPACTING NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RUNOFF FROM
EXCESSIVE RAINS COULD LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS DIMINISHES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER STORM
CHANCES...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE FROM THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY.

RSB

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