Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1243 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1024 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS UP IN OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK
OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT IN KY...AN MCS
IS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE COMPLEX IS WHERE THE 850MB CONVERGENCE IS
ALONG WITH THE BEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...CAPE AND SHEAR.
WITH CONDITIONS NOT AS FAVORABLE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
AREA...LOOKING FOR THE MCS TO WEAKEN. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. AS IT DRAWS CLOSER...ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD POP UP
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. EXACT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS
CHALLENGING SINCE IT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. THE NAM
WANTED TO HAVE IT AT OUR DOORSTEP BY MIDNIGHT WHILE THE GFS WAS ONTO
SOMETHING WITH SLOWING THE TIMING DOWN. RIGHT NOW LOOKING FOR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TO SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 2-4AM AND
NORTH AL SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

AS FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS...RAISED POPS TO AROUND 50 PERCENT IN
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT EVERYWHERE ELSE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RADAR TRENDS AND THE APPROACHING MCS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN NORTH CENTRAL TN WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO N AL AROUND 05/08Z. THIS LINE HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVERALL
OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND MODELS FOREAST THIS LINE TO BREAK UP AS IT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. HOWEVER...LIKELY NOT BEFORE -TSRA
AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 05/08Z AND 05/10Z. THIS COULD BRING AT
LEAST SOME MVFR CIGS TO THE TERMINALS DURING THAT PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 05/10Z...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
STORM TRENDS TO SEE IF THEY FALL APART EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
IF CLOUD COVER STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE...ONLY SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEREFORE INCLUDED VCSH FROM 05/18Z TO 05/21Z.

KTW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-051000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
646 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND AFTER 2 AM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
ALABAMA. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS
IN SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA. A
WEAKENING TREND MAY OCCUR AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A LOWER CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
REQUESTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
152 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

TNZ076-096-050730-
MOORE TN-LINCOLN TN-
152 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOORE AND CENTRAL LINCOLN UNTIL
230 AM CDT...

AT 144 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LEWISBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...LYNCHBURG...PETERSBURG...HOWELL...BOONSHILL...
BELLEVILLE...CAMARGO...BOONEVILLE...MULBERRY AND SKINEM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.
SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 8625 3539 8628 3537 8626 3537 8628
      3536 8626 3518 8639 3505 8667 3508 8683
      3526 8683 3525 8675 3531 8668 3533 8660
      3537 8659 3535 8654 3536 8649 3533 8646
      3532 8642 3535 8641 3536 8633 3541 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 311DEG 33KT 3551 8684

KTW