Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WET AND STORMY PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 155 AM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LARGELY
RESULTING FROM A SW UPSLOPE FLOW...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE
GEORGIA AND SW NC. SBCAPE RANGES FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG FROM ROUGHLY
THE NC BORDER SOUTH. MEANWHILE...BACKDOOR COOL/WEDGE FRONT HAS
PENETRATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT. THIS HAS TEMPORARILY
ENDED THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND
PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS. FARTHER WEST...THE SEVERE THREAT VERY
MUCH REMAINS IN THE UNSTABLE/STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WHERE A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM. THUS FAR...UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN
LOW-TOPPED...AS THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED FROM THE RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR OVER THE GA/SC PIEDMONT. MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE...EXHIBITING TRANSIENT STRONG
ROTATION AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT LATER THIS MORNING WHEN
CONVECTION FINALLY EMERGES ACROSS THE SC PIEDMONT...INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL THAT A CELL OR TWO COULD INTERACT WITH THE WEDGE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THIS WINDOW MAY CLOSE QUICKLY...AS INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE.

MEANWHILE...A SHORT FUSE HYDRO THREAT MAY BE UNFOLDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST NC MTNS...AS FAST-MOVING CELLS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN TRAINING IN SOME AREAS...AND THIS DOESN/T LOOK TO END
ANYTIME SOON.

AS OF 955 PM EDT MONDAY...WITH FALLING LCL/S AND A STRENGTHENING
LLVL WIND FIELD...A COUPLE MINI-SUPERCELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
OVER SE TN. NONE OF THESE ARE A THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THE INCREASING TENDENCY FOR SMALLER...DISCRETE STORMS TO SPIN IS
VERY INTERESTING. THE STORMS THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED OVER WRN GA
FIZZLED...THOUGH THIS MAKES SENSE LOOKING AT THE STRONG ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR EVIDENT ON THE 00 UTC BIRMINGHAM SOUNDING.
HOWEVER...THE UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NE GA MTNS AND THE
ENCROACHING AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER NW GEORGIA BODES
WELL FOR EROSION OF THE CAP AND INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HRRR...SPC WRF AND HI RES
WRF-NMM ALL INCREASE CONVECTION OVER THE WRN PART OF THE FA IN A FEW
HOURS. THEREFORE I CUT POPS BACK PRETTY MUCH TO ZERO FOR A FEW HOURS
OVER THE ERN ZONES...BUT I HAVE POPS RAMP UP QUICKLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF NC...SC AND NE
GA. SOME SEVERE STORMS...AND THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
EXIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE STEEP MID LLVL LAPSE RATES AND 0-1
KN HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 INDICATED BY THE RUC.

AS OF 625 PM EDT...TRIMMED POPS BACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
VERY LITTLE IS HAPPENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT PRESENT.
HOWEVER...DISCRETE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER
ERN AL AND WRN GA...AND MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS BRING THOSE
STORMS INTO THE FA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ONE OF THESE STORMS HAS JUST
SPLIT...INDICATING NASCENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE THERMAL
AND KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. THE LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL OVER NRN AL IS LIKELY TO
TRACK JUST WEST OF THE FA IN SEVERAL HOURS...TRAVELING UP THE GREAT
VALLEY OF TN. HOWEVER...IF THIS CELL TURNS MORE TO THE RIGHT...IT
TOO MAY AFFECT THE WRN ZONES IN SEVERAL HOURS.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS REALLY FOR A LONG DURATION EVENT...BUT VERY HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD LEAD TO MORE OF A FLASHY
CHARACTER TO ANY FLOODING. WILL START THE SW MTN SECTION WATCH AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY...BUT START THE
REST OF THE AREA AT 6 AM ON TUE. REALIZE THAT THAT IS JUST THE START
OF THE EVENT THOUGH...WITH THE FFA CONTINUING INTO WED NIGHT.

SO FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE SFC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED IN
ALONG A CENTRAL NC FOOTHILLS TO NEAR KCLT LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
SEEMS IT HAS STALLED THERE. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTN...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM ERN RIDGE MOVING E OF THE APPALACHIANS. A
DEEPER MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW UNDERWAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN SOUNDINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY
CLIMB...ALONG WITH INCREASED SHEAR IN THE STRONGER AND DEEPER WIND
FIELDS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION REMAINS THE PRIMARY DIFFICULTY
WITH THE FORECAST. THE FIRST ROUND MAY RESULT FROM WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TRIGGERING CELLS ALONG THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE
WRN NC PIEDMONT. THIS TRIGGERING WILL OVERLAP WITH THE BEST AREA OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG SFC BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR SE
OF KCLT. FORTUNATELY...STEERING FLOW WILL ADVECT MUCH OF THIS LATE
AFTN CONVECTION QUICKLY TO OUR EAST. SECOND...SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
NE FROM THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER GA MAY ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN FINALLY MORE ORGANIZED BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE W OVERNIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE
MCS. 850 MB FLOW SHOULD ALSO BACK AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT...WITH A 50
TO 60 KT SRLY JET LIKELY ARRIVING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO POSE
THE GREATEST SEVERE TSTMS RISK AS THE ACTIVITY CROSSES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. THE RESULT OF ALL THESE FEATURES WILL BE A
STEADY UPTICK IN CONVECTION AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY GIVEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE SLOWLY MOVING POTENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  MODEST WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WARM CONVEYOR BELT STREAMS WAVES OF HIGH
THETAE AIR INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GA.  LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST ZONE OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85...EASTWARD INTO THE I77 CORRIDOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY AS A
LINE WITH POTENTIAL BOWING SEGMENTS.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE VEERED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST AT THIS POINT...DUE TO FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO DISPLAY RIGHT TURNING HODOGRAPHS AND SBCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG...WILL NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TORNADOES ALONG POTENTIAL QLCS DEVELOPMENT.  THE PRIMARY THREATS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH HYDRO CONCERNS BECOMING EVEN MORE PREVALENT DUE TO
PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL LEADING TO FAVORABLE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
FOR FLOODING.  EXPECTING MANY RIVERS TO REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD
STAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE OF CONVECTION EXITS TO THE
EAST...ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTRIBUTING TO
THE POTENTIALLY ONGOING FLOOD THREAT.  HOWEVER...PROFILES BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION AS OVERALL BUOYANCY WILL BE
LIMITED.  THESE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE TN BORDER A FEW HOURS BEHIND.  THUS...POPS FINALLY
TAPER DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LEVEL POPS
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 AS THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...DESPITE DEPARTURE OF THE PESKY CLOSED
UPPER LOW...A BROAD UPPER TROF PATTERN WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES PASSING
THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER FLOW.  THEREFORE...POPS INCREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LEVELS REGION-WIDE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
INTRUDES.  THE BROAD UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT TO SEA ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS OUT WEST AND
ADVECTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS.  PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
DEVELOPING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT NE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AIRFIELD NORTH OF WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK
NORTH...TURNING WINDS TO THE S/SE...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS ATTM...BUT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION IS EXTREMELY SLOW. IN FACT...IT WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL PRIOR TO 12Z. NEVERTHELESS...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY...SO TEMPOS
FOR SHRA HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED. OTHERWISE...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING...AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
TEMPO. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TSRA WILL NOT OCCUR CONTINUOUSLY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE SEEN
MORE OFTEN THAN NOT...THUS CATEGORICAL TSRA HAS BEEN CARRIED FROM
ABOUT MID-MORNING ONWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TSRA...RESULTING IN OCCL IFR VISBY WILL CONTINUE AT
KAVL/KHKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. KHKY SHOULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD
OF IFR (OR LOWER) CIGS LATER THIS MORNING...AS WARM/MOIST AIR ALOFT
OVERSPREADS COOLER AIR NORTH OF WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. TSRA WILL
EVENTUALLY APPROACH THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS...BUT IT WILL TAKE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION OVER NE GEORGIA MAKES IT
THAT FAR. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TSRA WILL NOT OCCUR CONTINUOUSLY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE SEEN
MORE OFTEN THAN NOT...THUS CATEGORICAL TSRA HAS BEEN CARRIED FROM
ABOUT MID-MORNING ONWARD.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     MED   76%     MED   66%     LOW   53%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     MED   70%     MED   71%     MED   66%
KAVL       MED   74%     MED   66%     MED   66%     MED   68%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     MED   79%     MED   74%     MED   79%
KGMU       HIGH  88%     MED   71%     MED   74%     MED   72%
KAND       HIGH  81%     MED   65%     MED   68%     MED   63%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR GAZ018-026-028-029.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-
     501>510.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062>065.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SCZ004>014-019.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1251 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

GAZ018-026-028-NCZ049-050-505>510-SCZ004>006-010-300500-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-YANCEY-MITCHELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-
1251 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 114 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
..WEDNESDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND BY MID-WEEK. AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF LANDSLIDES AND SLOPE FAILURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>003-300500-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
1251 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 114 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
..WEDNESDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND BY MID-WEEK. AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF LANDSLIDES AND SLOPE FAILURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ029-NCZ033-068>072-082-503-504-SCZ007>009-011>014-019-300500-
ELBERT-AVERY-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1251 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL YIELD CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
..WEDNESDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND BY MID-WEEK. AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF LANDSLIDES AND SLOPE FAILURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-501-502-300500-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-
1251 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
..WEDNESDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND BY MID-WEEK. AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF LANDSLIDES AND SLOPE FAILURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

NCZ064-SCZ001-002-290645-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
220 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PICKENS...NORTHERN
OCONEE AND SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM EDT...

AT 216 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNTAIN REST...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WALHALLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  SALEM...
  DEVILS FORK STATE PARK...
  GORGES STATE PARK...
  LAKE TOXAWAY...

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3493 8315 3494 8312 3500 8310 3503 8301
      3506 8305 3517 8294 3511 8269 3508 8275
      3506 8276 3505 8274 3506 8270 3475 8311
      3484 8326

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

NCZ053-064-065-SCZ002-003-290715-
BUNCOMBE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-PICKENS
MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
234 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL PICKENS...
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON AND
EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM EDT...

AT 230 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF
LOOKING GLASS TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCKY BOTTOM TO SALEM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ROCKY BOTTOM...
  BILTMORE FOREST...
  I-40 AT HIGHWAY 74...
  DUPONT STATE FOREST...
  FAIRVIEW...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC DEVICES. TRY TO
UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3580 8234 3575 8234 3571 8227 3569 8230
      3563 8227 3559 8229 3549 8223 3544 8228
      3540 8226 3537 8227 3527 8235 3485 8283
      3534 8281

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

NCZ049-050-053-064-065-505-SCZ002-003-290715-
BUNCOMBE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-MCDOWELL
MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-YANCEY-
237 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PICKENS...
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...WESTERN MCDOWELL...SOUTHERN YANCEY...
EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MITCHELL...HENDERSON AND BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM EDT...

AT 234 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BARNARDSVILLE TO
DUPONT STATE FOREST TO KEOWEE TOXAWAY STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ARDEN...
  ROCKY BOTTOM...
  BURNSVILLE...
  SWANNANOA...
  FAIRVIEW...
  BLACK MOUNTAIN...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3546 8225 3544 8228 3533 8230 3528 8235
      3511 8238 3490 8291 3497 8292 3574 8264
      3580 8251 3582 8242 3586 8242 3605 8206

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

NCZ053-064-065-507>510-SCZ002-003-290800-
BUNCOMBE-EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-GREENVILLE
MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD
MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
320 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL PICKENS...
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...WESTERN POLK...
EAST CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM EDT...

AT 316 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAESARS HEAD...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BREVARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  JONES GAP STATE PARK...
  HIGHWAY 25 AT HIGHWAY 11...
  FLAT ROCK...
  LAKE ADGER...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3554 8249 3543 8200 3496 8262 3510 8275

NED

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