Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WET AND STORMY PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM EDT MONDAY...WITH FALLING LCL/S AND A STRENGTHENING
LLVL WIND FIELD...A COUPLE MINI-SUPERCELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
OVER SE TN. NONE OF THESE ARE A THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THE INCREASING TENDENCY FOR SMALLER...DISCRETE STORMS TO SPIN IS
VERY INTERESTING. THE STORMS THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED OVER WRN GA
FIZZLED...THOUGH THIS MAKES SENSE LOOKING AT THE STRONG ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR EVIDENT ON THE 00 UTC BIRMINGHAM SOUNDING.
HOWEVER...THE UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NE GA MTNS AND THE
ENCROACHING AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER NW GEORGIA BODES
WELL FOR ERROSION OF THE CAP AND INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HRRR...SPC WRF AND HI RES
WRF-NMM ALL INCREASE CONVECTION OVER THE WRN PART OF THE FA IN A FEW
HOURS. THEREFORE I CUT POPS BACK PRETTY MUCH TO ZERO FOR A FEW HOURS
OVER THE ERN ZONES...BUT I HAVE POPS RAMP UP QUICKLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF NC...SC AND NE
GA. SOME SEVERE STORMS...AND THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
EXIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE STEEP MID LLVL LAPSE RATES AND 0-1
KN HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 INDICATED BY THE RUC.

AS OF 625 PM EDT...TRIMMED POPS BACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
VERY LITTLE IS HAPPENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT PRESENT.
HOWEVER...DISCRETE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER
ERN AL AND WRN GA...AND MANY OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS BRING THOSE
STORMS INTO THE FA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. ONE OF THESE STORMS HAS JUST
SPLIT...INDICATING NASCENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE THERMAL
AND KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. THE LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL OVER NRN AL IS LIKELY TO
TRACK JUST WEST OF THE FA IN SEVERAL HOURS...TRAVELING UP THE GREAT
VALLEY OF TN. HOWEVER...IF THIS CELL TURNS MORE TO THE RIGHT...IT
TOO MAY AFFECT THE WRN ZONES IN SEVERAL HOURS.

AS OF 245 PM EDT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS IS REALLY FOR A LONG DURATION EVENT...BUT VERY HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD LEAD TO MORE OF A FLASHY
CHARACTER TO ANY FLOODING. WILL START THE SW MTN SECTION WATCH AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY...BUT START THE
REST OF THE AREA AT 6 AM ON TUE. REALIZE THAT THAT IS JUST THE START
OF THE EVENT THOUGH...WITH THE FFA CONTINUING INTO WED NIGHT.

SO FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE SFC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SETTLED IN
ALONG A CENTRAL NC FOOTHILLS TO NEAR KCLT LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
SEEMS IT HAS STALLED THERE. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTN...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM ERN RIDGE MOVING E OF THE APPALACHIANS. A
DEEPER MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW UNDERWAY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN SOUNDINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY
CLIMB...ALONG WITH INCREASED SHEAR IN THE STRONGER AND DEEPER WIND
FIELDS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION REMAINS THE PRIMARY DIFFICULTY
WITH THE FORECAST. THE FIRST ROUND MAY RESULT FROM WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TRIGGERING CELLS ALONG THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE
WRN NC PIEDMONT. THIS TRIGGERING WILL OVERLAP WITH THE BEST AREA OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG SFC BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR SE
OF KCLT. FORTUNATELY...STEERING FLOW WILL ADVECT MUCH OF THIS LATE
AFTN CONVECTION QUICKLY TO OUR EAST. SECOND...SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
NE FROM THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER GA MAY ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN FINALLY MORE ORGANIZED BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE W OVERNIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE
MCS. 850 MB FLOW SHOULD ALSO BACK AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT...WITH A 50
TO 60 KT SRLY JET LIKELY ARRIVING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO POSE
THE GREATEST SEVERE TSTMS RISK AS THE ACTIVITY CROSSES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. THE RESULT OF ALL THESE FEATURES WILL BE A
STEADY UPTICK IN CONVECTION AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY GIVEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM EDT MONDAY...WITH FALLING LCL/S AND A STRENGTHENING
LLVL WIND FIELD...A COUPLE MINI-SUPERCELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
OVER SE TN. NONE OF THESE ARE A THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THE INCREASING TENDENCY FOR SMALLER...DISCRETE STORMS TO SPIN IS
VERY INTERESTING. THE STORMS THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED OVER WRN GA
FIZZLED...THOUGH THIS MAKES SENSE LOOKING AT THE STRONG ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR EVIDENT ON THE 00 UTC BIRMINGHAM SOUNDING.
HOWEVER...THE UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NE GA MTNS AND THE
ENCROACHING AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER NW GEORGIA BODES
WELL FOR ERROSION OF THE CAP AND INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HRRR...SPC WRF AND HI RES
WRF-NMM ALL INCREASE CONVECTION OVER THE WRN PART OF THE FA IN A FEW
HOURS. THEREFORE I CUT POPS BACK PRETTY MUCH TO ZERO FOR A FEW HOURS
OVER THE ERN ZONES...BUT I HAVE POPS RAMP UP QUICKLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF NC...SC AND NE
GA. SOME SEVERE STORMS...AND THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
EXIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH THE STEEP MID LLVL LAPSE RATES AND 0-1
KN HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 INDICATED BY THE RUC.

AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...THE OP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AT
LEAST TWO MORE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS THE ENTIRE
AREA...AS A GARGANTUAN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER THE
COUNTRY/S MIDSECTION. THE FIRST ROUND LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY EVE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...AS A BULLS EYE OF 400-200MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT-REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWFA. THE
FORCING WILL BE IN COMBINATION WITH A WARM-CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP
GULF MOISTURE TRAINING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT. PWATS WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GEFS ANOMALY PAGE. SO I EXPECT NEAR 100% POP FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. RAIN RATES COULD BE QUITE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS FCST SNDGS
SHOW LINGERING MUCAPE OF 600-1000 J/KG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS. I LIKE THE LATEST WPC QPF...WHICH PAINTS 1.0-2.5" OF QPF
OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. THIS WILL LIKELY START
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING PROBLEMS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR/MOIST AIR MASS IN THE 50S MTNS
AND 60S PIEDMONT.

THE SECOND ROUND OF UPPER FORCING WILL BE COUPLED WITH THE ACTUAL
FROPA ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE LARGE UPPER VORTEX WOBBLES EAST SLIGHTLY
ACRS THE MIDWEST AND BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. CATEGORICAL
POPS CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF QPF EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTAL QPF OF 3-5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN...ISOLD TO SCATTERED
LANDSLIDES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS. SEVERE WX WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN AS WELL...ESP DURING THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN INSTBY WILL PEAK
AGAIN (SBCAPE BACK UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG)...WHILE SHEAR PROFILES
IMPROVE TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE DAY
3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS A SLGT RISK FOR THE ENTIRE
CWFA...WITH A 30% AREA FROM I-85 AND SOUTH. THE WORDING IN THE HWO
FOR BOTH THE FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT LOOKS GOOD...SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WILL BE MADE FOR WEDNESDAY/S PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK. TEMPS
WILL BE KEPT MAINLY IN THE 70S DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS/PRECIP ONGOING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
SLOWER ON BRINGING A DRY SLOT INTO THE CWFA FROM THE WEST...AS UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO OPEN BACK UP INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. STILL
EXPECT POPS TO TAPER OFF...ESP WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THEN TO JUST A SLGT CHC LINGERING DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY EASTERN HALF AND CHC POP SOUTHEAST OF CHARLOTTE. WITH THE
UPPER FLOW STILL BLOCKED...A SLOWER TREND MAKES SENSE. SFC WAVES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS THE MIDLANDS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC...SO PRECIP COULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA. AT THIS TIME...I DON/T EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL QPF. STILL...
MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. MIN
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND MAX TEMPS THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL...WITH SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
FRIDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT AND VERY BROAD UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AS HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THEY FALL OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY ZONAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR NORTH.

AT THE SFC...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING NE
OF THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY FRI. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BNDY WILL
LIKELY BE TO OUR EAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR SPREADING OVER THE FCST AREA. ON SAT...THE LONG RANGE
MODELS APPEAR TO SPIN UP A WEAK LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA AND
THEN MOVE IT UP THE SE COAST. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON SAT...HOWEVER THE EXTENT
OF THE MOISTURE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS...BY SUN
BROADER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND KEEP THINGS DRY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
STILL PRESENT FOR MOST OF FRI A PART OF SAT AND THEN DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUN AND MON. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY
MAY AND STEADILY WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AIRFIELD...RESULTING IN LIGHT NE WINDS. THIS AIRFLOW SHOULD PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER BACK TO SE.
MFVR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE TUE. BASED
ON THE TIMING OF THE STORMS OVER WRN GA...AND THE LATEST MESOSCALE
MODER OUTPUT...CONVECTION SHOULD REACH THE AIRFIELD AROUND 5 OR 6
UTC TONIGHT...AND THE TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A COUPLE
HOURS. WE/VE BEEN PUSHING THE THUNDERSTORMS BACK FOR A LONG TIME IT
SEEMS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS WILL MOVE IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSTMS
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE. TIMING IS TOUGH AND IN ORDER TO STAY WITHIN
THE RECOMMENDED NUMBER OF LINES IN THE TAF...I JUST HAVE VCSH
AFTER 18 UTC...THOUGH CHANCES ARE GOOD TEMPO OR PREVAILIHG WILL BE
NEEDED AFTER THIS TIME IN LATER UPDATES.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TRENDS FOR CHARLOTTE AS AT THE OTHER
SITES...THOUGH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE A FEW HOURS EARLIER
OVER THE UPSTATE TONIGHT AS THESE SITES ARE CLOSER TO THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER WRN GA. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT ACROSS
THE UPSTATE OR THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  99%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     MED   78%     HIGH  82%     MED   74%
KHKY       HIGH  87%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  94%     MED   76%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  96%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR GAZ018-026-028-029.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-
     501>510.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062>065.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR SCZ004>014-019.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1025 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ004>014-019-300230-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1025 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL YIELD
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
..WEDNESDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND BY MID-WEEK. AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF LANDSLIDES AND SLOPE FAILURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>003-300230-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
1025 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
YIELD CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
..WEDNESDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND BY MID-WEEK. AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN
INCREASED RISK OF LANDSLIDES AND SLOPE FAILURES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014

NCZ051-059-062-063-290315-
MACON-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-SWAIN-
1027 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT JACKSON...SOUTH CENTRAL SWAIN
AND MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

AT 1025 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF OTTO...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING NEAR SCALY
MOUNTAIN...ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN JACKSON...MACON AND SOUTHERN SWAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

FRANKLIN AND SYLVA...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

LAT...LON 3534 8364 3538 8359 3546 8358 3553 8332
      3538 8302 3500 8317 3499 8352 3503 8354
      3505 8357 3512 8362 3515 8366 3515 8371
      3516 8373

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1148 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014

NCZ051-052-059-062-290430-
HAYWOOD-MACON-NORTHERN JACKSON-SWAIN-
1148 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN JACKSON...EASTERN
SWAIN...NORTH CENTRAL MACON AND SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH
1230 AM EDT...

AT 1147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF CULLOWHEE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SYLVA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN SWAIN...NORTHERN JACKSON...NORTHERN MACON AND
SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...BALSAM...MAGGIE VALLEY...WAYNESVILLE AND LAKE
JUNALUSKA...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

LAT...LON 3565 8318 3543 8280 3524 8313 3523 8322
      3519 8322 3516 8328 3528 8344

MOORE