Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY AND
THEN ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...UPDATE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WRN PIEDMONT OF NC
AND NRN SC. SEVERAL HORIZONTAL ROLLS SEEN ON KGSP RADAR AND
ADDITIONAL CELLS WILL DEVELOP IN LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

AS OF 430 PM...HAVE UPDATED THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVER THE WRN ZONES. POP HAS BEEN BUMPED TO
CATEGORICAL OVER THE WESTERN PART AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ANYTHING TO STOP THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE IT REACHES THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. THE LINE LOOKS QUITE FORMIDABLE OFF
TO THE WEST AND WE MAY HAVE SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE OVER THE
MTNS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WIND GETS CHANNELED THROUGH FAVORABLE
VALLEYS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE WATCH...HARD TO SAY HOW LONG THE LINE
WILL REMAIN VIGOROUS AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE HEATING AND THE LINE
OUTRUNS SOME OF THE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. PEOPLE OVER THE UPSTATE
AND NC FOOTHILLS/WRN PIEDMONT SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 215 PM...IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...VSBL SAT PIC AT 1745Z STILL
SHOWS A SUPPRESSED CU FIELD ACROSS THE WEASTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA.
THEREFORE...IT STILL LOOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE ALONG WITH THE HOT TEMPS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM CENTRAL
TN...S THROUGH AL. THIS WILL MOVE NE AND SHOULD REACH FAR WEST
NC...NE GA AROUND 22Z AND THEN MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH 06Z. THE
NCEP WRF ARW EAST SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO.
OUTSIDE OF SOME WIDELY SCT CONVECTION OVER THE RIDGE TOPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RAMP UP POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...BUT NOT
TAKE THE HIGHER POPS INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND CLT AREA. SPC HAS
MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO FAR W NC/NE GA AND THE FAR W UPSTATE
IN THEIR DAY 1 OUTLOOK MOST LIKLEY DUE TO THE ANTICIPATATION OF THE
BEFORE-MENTIONED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AFFECTING THAT AREA.

ON WED...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING TO THE WEST THE LAST
FEW DAYS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
IMPROVE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MOISTURE FLUX
FROM THE GULF. THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE BUT NOT TO
EXCESSIVE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.5-1.75 RANGE. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES...BUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WHERE TRAINING CELLS OCCUR.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO GENERATE MOST GRID
FIELDS EXCEPT POP. MIN TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE WED'S MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER/SFC TROFS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ONGOING
CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER LOSS OF HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CONVECTIVE
DECAY.  THUS...WILL TAPER INITIAL WIDESPREAD LIKELY POPS SLOWLY TO
SOLID CHANCE LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR ANY
DEEP CONVECTION TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THEREFORE THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IS
CELL TRAINING OCCURS OVER A GIVEN AREA.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PUSH TO THE
EAST THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD...ALONG WITH ENHANCED UPPER SUPPORT WILL
YIELD INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  PROFILES WILL BE RATHER MOIST ON THURSDAY
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WHICH WILL INHIBIT HEATING AND IN
TURN REDUCE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.  THUS...NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY.  THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL YET AGAIN AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
AND HALF.  AS THE UPPER FORCING PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AND WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT
FADES...EXPECTING COVERAGE TO DIMINISH.  POPS WILL TAPER DOWN
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE
CHANCE LEVEL POPS RESIDE.

CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER RH FIELDS INDICATE YET ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THEREBY LIMITING HEATING.  THAT SAID...SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE
MODEST LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH COMBINED WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL WORK TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP TO SOLID CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL ACTUALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AS FORECAST SKY COVER WILL
DAMPEN HEATING.  THIS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WORK TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THIS MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z SATURDAY.
AT THAT TIME...THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE 500MB FLOW IS WELL NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN MOST CANADA. A TROUGH AXIS AT
THAT TIME EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS OUR AREA.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NATION
WITH MOST OF THE MAIN ENERGY BEING NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL SATURDAY...PERHAPS JUST UNDER NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY WITH AXIS
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. THE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL SKIRT
THE PIEDMONT REGION EACH DAY BEING HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND
CENTRAL SC. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A BIT OVER THE SE STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON WED. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH.

THE GFS CONTINUES WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN ON DAY 7
AS IT HAS AROUND DAY 7 FOR WELL OVER A WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...ATMOSPHERE STILL SUPRESSED PER THE UNIMPRESSIVE CU FIELD
ON THE LATEST VSBL SAT PIC. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT KCLT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER TN WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING TO
KCLT TONIGHT. THUS...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE INTHE TAF THROUGH TONIGHT.
ON WED...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH SPREADING SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY SOME RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...ATMOSPHERE ALSO IS STILL SUPPRESSED PER THE UNIMPRESSIVE
CU FIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE LATEST VSBL SAT PIC.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING FORM CENTRAL TN...S INTO AL. THIS WILL MAKE A RUN
EASTWARD AND REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ABOUT 00Z. STORMS SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN THEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO AN UPPER RIDGE.
HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A TEMPO AT KAND WHERE THE STORMS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF MAKING IT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR
NOW. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND BEEF UP THUNDER FORECAST IF IT APPEARS
THE THUNDERSTORM COPMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER.

OUTLOOK...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED NIGHT ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT THAT MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY AGAIN THU INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN
VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     LOW   54%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...LG/PM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

GAZ028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ002-003-005>014-019-111930-
HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
328 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-SCZ001-004-111930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-
328 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

CDG

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