Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
804 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT WILL
MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM STATESVILLE TO GASTONIA AND
GREENWOOD. SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING AROUND WEST OF THERE
AND RESIDUAL CAPE REMAINS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO THE ENTIRE WATCH
WILL BE KEPT AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR. WILL BE ABLE TO PARE AWAY
PARTS OF THE WATCH AFTER SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING. TEMPS WILL BE
TWEAKED FOR AREAS OF RAIN COOLED AIR.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIG
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE CWFA.  MEANWHILE ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS PROVIDING ENHANCED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION.  FORECAST WILL
HIGHLIGHT CHANCE POPS REGIONWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION
ALONG WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE APPS. POPS TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES INTO THE LATE
EVENING WITH POPS LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.  PATCHY FOG
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MID MORNING WITH COVERAGE BEING MOST
DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER REGARDING VISIBILITY RESTRICITONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE PUSHES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THE OLD QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.  MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INITIALIZE RATHER WEAK BEFORE RAMPING UP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85.  THEREFORE EXPECTING THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON
TUESDAY TO BE ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE AXIS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS
STRETCHING TOWARDS OR EVEN EXCEEDING 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS ON
TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON SKY COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY ON WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MO. MOVES NE AND
FILLS. A REMANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THU. AT THE SURFACE...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY LOSE SWAY OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THU. AS THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS GULF INFLOW IMPROVES WITH TIME.

IN REGARD TO CONVECTION...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS EARLY ON. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVER DONE IN
HANGING ONTO SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MUCH OF TUE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER FORCING. HENCE...WILL
STEER THE TUE NIGHT FORECAST MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE DRYER NAM.
ON WED...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL AGAIN SPIKE DURING MAX AFTERNOON
HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CASE TO BE MADE FOR
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WED NIGHT AS UPPER
DIVERGANCE IMPROVES AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE
UPSLOPE...ALONG WITH IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST WED NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT
REACH THE AREA.

THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK
AS SBCAPE BECOMES MORE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/CLOUDS. PWATS GRADUALLY INCREASE AND GENERALLY PEAK AROUND
1.75 INCHES. HENCE AS WE GET INTO WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT INTO THU...A
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPS. USED SUPERBLEND/
WEIGHTED MODEL DATA FOR TEMPS/POPS. POPS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FROM
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND LOWER...ESPECIALLY ON
THU AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROMOTES MORE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...AT 00Z FRIDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE OUR
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH RESULTED AFTER
THE CLOSED 500MB LOW OPENED OVER THE MIDWEST DURING MID WEEK. CAPES
OF 1000 TO 1500 OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THURSDAY ALONG
WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THESE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH ON FRIDAY AIDING IN MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE GFS HAS A LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM ACROSS TENNESSEE ON
FRIDAY WITH THE RESULTING COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW BECOMING UPSLOPE
FROM THE SE INTO OUR NC...SC AND GA MTNS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. IF
THIS LIGHT 5 TO 10KT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PANS OUT...THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE MUCH OF SAT AND SUN WHICH OF COURSE WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS SHOW BEST INSTABILITY IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD BEING ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 IN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS FORECAST STARTING NEXT WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN
AROUND DAY 7 OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.  THIS CONTINUES TO OCCUR EACH
DAY PROGRESSIVELY PRODUCING THIS SYSTEM AROUND DAY 7 GOING BACK AT
LEAST TO A WEEK AGO. WE CAN ONLY TAKE IT SERIOUSLY IF OTHER MODELS
START TO AGREE.

TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE INITIAL HOUR...THEN
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WIND COMING BACK AROUND
TO SW. THERE COULD BE OTHER SHOWERS OR STORMS BUT THEY ARE NOT
LIKELY AND WILL AMEND TAF AS NECESSARY. RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAS
UPPED THE LIKELIHOOD THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY
10Z AT THE LATEST...BUT IT COULD BE EVEN EARLIER THAN THAT. MVFR
CEILING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS LIFT AND
SCATTER. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SO A PROB30 WILL BE CARRIED. EXPECT WIND FROM THE SW.

ELSEWHERE...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE OTHER
TAF SITES...SO WE WILL DEAL MAINLY WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WINDS
MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY OUTFLOWS...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT FROM
THE S OR SW. EXPECT SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK...AT
LEAST ON A TEMPORARY BASIS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO
FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH
MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM. BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  82%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     MED   75%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO/VISIN
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
902 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101315-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
902 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STORMS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

CDG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

NCZ035-036-056-092330-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-IREDELL-
644 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL IREDELL...NORTH
CENTRAL CATAWBA AND SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CONOVER...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF NEWTON...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CLAREMONT...
  LOOKOUT SHOALS LAKE...
  STONY POINT...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3590 8097 3576 8090 3570 8125 3580 8131

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
655 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

SCZ011-019-092345-
ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
655 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN GREENWOOD AND
SOUTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 654 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TROY...
  GREENWOOD...
  NINETY SIX...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3406 8234 3405 8242 3407 8247 3415 8249
      3425 8202 3421 8195 3420 8192 3412 8187
      3402 8196 3399 8223 3401 8226 3399 8227
      3398 8232

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
701 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

NCZ036-037-057-092345-
DAVIE-IREDELL-ROWAN-
701 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ROWAN...EAST
CENTRAL IREDELL AND DAVIE COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 700 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF HARMONY...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF STATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  HARMONY...
  MOCKSVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3588 8037 3589 8041 3585 8038 3582 8047
      3576 8045 3578 8089 3600 8091 3603 8043
      3601 8041 3599 8041 3597 8038 3589 8036

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

SCZ014-100045-
CHESTER-
755 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY
THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 754 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF RICHBURG...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  RICHBURG...
  GREAT FALLS RESERVOIR...
  FISHING CREEK RESERVOIR...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3467 8088 3465 8089 3455 8087 3454 8088
      3454 8097 3455 8106 3455 8113 3469 8117
      3475 8087 3470 8085

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
758 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

NCZ036-037-057-100045-
DAVIE-IREDELL-ROWAN-
758 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROWAN...EAST CENTRAL IREDELL AND
SOUTHERN DAVIE COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 754 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLEVELAND...OR 10 MILES EAST OF
STATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CLEVELAND...
  COOLEEMEE...
  SALISBURY...
  SPENCER...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3555 8024 3558 8088 3590 8083 3596 8037
      3589 8036 3588 8041 3585 8038 3582 8047
      3574 8045 3572 8038 3573 8034 3571 8032
      3568 8033 3564 8028 3562 8024

KRENTZ