Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1124 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014

UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AS SUPERCELL IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RIGHT MOVER MOTIONS WOULD TAKE IT SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. OTHER ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL UPPER FLOW MOVES EAST OF
THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THEN NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TONIGHT.  SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK FEATURES ARE SHOWING UP IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING...WHICH MATCHES UP REASONABLY WELL
WITH THE HIGHER QPF FIELDS DEPICTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THERE IS A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
A PORTION OF THE SURFACE LOW EXTENDS NORTHWARDS AS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH/LEE TROUGH.  AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY 06Z...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME STORM REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH/INVERTED TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO.  IF THAT HAPPENS...THE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY
EVENTUALLY PHASE IN WITH THE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WINDS TURN
EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WITH
LOCALIZED INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS BETWEEN 05-09Z AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED AFTER
09Z BY MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SWATH OF STORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.  CURRENT FEELING BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
EARLY MORNING RH VALUES NEARING SATURATION...COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF
FOG BETWEEN 09-13Z IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS...SO
HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING.

THE NAM BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE FA
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THERE IS 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
AVAILABLE EACH DAY. WIND SHEAR OF 35 TO 45KTS SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PLAN TO TIE HIGHER POPS
NEAR THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.  30-40 PERCENT POPS WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST FA NEAR THE FRONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHEAST. PLAN TO KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN INCREASE THEM TO HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE WARM FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE FA. LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. CHANCES WILL START TO DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. SATURDAY WILL START WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST WITH THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE PLACED NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS NEAR THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S. MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS
WELL.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE THE
FORCING FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE MID 80S BY
WEDNESDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER
60S IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014

MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT COULD IMPACT EITHER
KGLD OR KMCK WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
306 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-051245-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
306 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2014 /406 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AFTER 5 PM. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND NORTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1145 PM MDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     HAIL             10 N WILD HORSE         38.96N 103.00W
06/04/2014  E1.00 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GUSTS OVER 60MPH AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN 15 MINUTES.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JJM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1225 AM MDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     HAIL             16 S FLAGLER            39.06N 103.07W
06/04/2014  E1.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROKE HOUSE WINDOWS. ALSO REPORTED 1.8 INCHES OF RAIN IN
            15 MINUTES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1226 AM MDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     HEAVY RAIN       16 S FLAGLER            39.06N 103.07W
06/04/2014  E1.80 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FELL IN ABOUT 15 MINUTES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1226 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2014

COZ091-092-KSZ013-027-050645-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-SHERMAN-WALLACE-
1226 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...KIT
CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 1225 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF
BURLINGTON TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BETHUNE TO 13 MILES NORTH OF
FIRSTVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 10246 3956 10223 3957 10175 3920 10183
      3892 10197 3894 10259
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 266DEG 36KT 3943 10221 3920 10234
          3901 10247

HUSTED