Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
532 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO TREND HIGHER POPS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LINGERING WEDGE FRONT...THEN PUSHING FURTHER EAST
THIS EVENING PER THE CONSENSUS OF LATEST HI-RES SOLUTIONS. MORNING
CLOUD DECK ALLOWED FOR SOLAR SHELTERING AND IN-SITU REINFORCEMENT
OF THE WEDGE TODAY...DELAYING THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD AND
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED SKY COVER
ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A WARM LAYER
AROUND H5 IS DAMPENING THE AMOUNT OF THUNDER AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH
OF THE TSTORMS. THIS HAS BECOME MORE OF A BREATHING IN DAY FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER SUNSET. ALL MODELS HAVE
THE NEXT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY. WITH NO
WARM LAYER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND WITH HIGHER CAPES...EXPECT MORE
THUNDER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WEDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE THIS MORNING HAS EXITED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AS WINDS IN MOST AREAS HAVE GONE
SOUTHWEST. A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE CWA IN THE UNSTABLE MOISTURE AIRMASS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEDGE MAY BUILD BACK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
AGAIN SUNDAY WHICH IS CREATING A PROBLEMATIC TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR THE GVL/AHN/NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH
A MAV/MET BLEND FOR THOSE AREAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

17

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. 12Z GFS MODEL RUN IS TRENDING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
ALL-IN-ALL THESE TRENDS ARE WELL REPRESENTED IN THE CURRENT LONG
TERM FORECAST GRIDS AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION
BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES A FRONT SHOULD GET PUSHED INTO GEORGIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
SHOW DRIER AIR SINKING INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE SHOWN MINIMAL POPS
FOR THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THE AIR MASS LOOKS STABLE
ENOUGH ON THURSDAY SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER NIGHTS
EXPECTED MID WEEK...AFTERNOONS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOST CIGS HAVE GONE OR WILL BE AT VFR BY 18Z ISSUANCE. CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REFORM LATE TONIGHT...BECOMING VFR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS HAVE GONE OR WILL SOON BE GOING WEST/SOUTHWEST
AND WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST. SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  87  71  87 /  60  60  60  40
ATLANTA         72  86  72  88 /  60  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  79  67  82 /  60  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  87  70  89 /  60  60  60  40
COLUMBUS        74  89  74  93 /  60  60  60  50
GAINESVILLE     71  83  71  85 /  60  60  60  40
MACON           72  89  72  92 /  60  60  60  50
ROME            71  88  71  89 /  50  60  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  72  88  72  90 /  60  60  60  40
VIDALIA         73  92  73  94 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17/BAKER
LONG TERM...41/20
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1210 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-100900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1210 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND
INTERACT WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AIR
SHOULD SPREAD INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
557 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ031-092230-
557 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN PAULDING COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 555 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER UNION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PAULDING COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE UNION...YORKVILLE...DALLAS...NEW HOPE...NEW
GEORGIA...BROWNSVILLE AND HIRAM. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 8501 3395 8498 3397 8497 3396 8474
      3395 8474 3394 8472 3379 8473 3377 8489
      3382 8503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 297DEG 15KT 3388 8495

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
619 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ042-043-092300-
619 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN CARROLL AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 616 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TREASURE LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CARROLL AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SEATON LAKE...ABILENE...CLEM...VILLA
RICA...TREASURE LAKE...LAKE VAL-DO-MAR...HANNAH...BYERS CROSSROADS...
FAIRPLAY...BILL ARP...WINSTON...SWEETWATER CREEK STATE PARK...
DOUGLASVILLE...CHAPEL HILL AND LITHIA SPRINGS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 8507 3373 8505 3379 8473 3381 8470
      3380 8463 3377 8459 3374 8458 3366 8466
      3362 8474 3363 8475 3360 8480 3355 8483
      3352 8482 3349 8486 3354 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 268DEG 16KT 3363 8495

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
634 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ031-032-092300-
634 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN PAULDING
AND COBB COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 631 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HIRAM...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PAULDING AND COBB COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS
AROUND DALLAS...NEW GEORGIA...BROWNSVILLE...HIRAM...LOST MOUNTAIN
PARK...POWDER SPRINGS...JIM R MILLER PARK AND AUSTELL. RESIDENTS IN
THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES
SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3392 8489 3397 8457 3376 8459 3380 8463
      3380 8472 3379 8473 3377 8482 3377 8489
      3378 8490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 269DEG 15KT 3384 8479

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
643 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ056-058-070-071-092315-
643 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN SPALDING...MONROE...LAMAR AND BUTTS COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 641 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CHAPPEL MILL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS SPALDING...MONROE...LAMAR AND BUTTS COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE LIBERTY
HILL...JOHNSTONVILLE...GOGGINS...CHAPPEL MILL...ALDORA...
BARNESVILLE...MCKIBBEN...WALKER MILL...COLLIER...HIGH FALLS STATE
PARK...BLOUNT...FORSYTH...INDIAN SPRINGS STATE PARK...FLOVILLA AND
DAMES FERRY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 8383 3327 8383 3324 8381 3321 8383
      3319 8381 3318 8383 3315 8381 3313 8382
      3303 8372 3300 8373 3302 8417 3329 8420
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 269DEG 20KT 3314 8405

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
711 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ058-059-071-072-092345-
711 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND 45 MPH
WINDS IN MONROE...JONES...BUTTS AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
EDT...

AT 708 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BLOUNT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS MONROE...JONES...BUTTS AND JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BLOUNT...
COLLIER...HIGH FALLS STATE PARK...FORSYTH...MCKIBBEN...INDIAN SPRINGS
STATE PARK...FLOVILLA...JACKSON...BERNER...PLANT SCHERER...
JULIETTE...BOLINGBROKE...MCELHENEYS CROSSROADS...JARRELL PLANTATION
AND DAMES FERRY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3292 8370 3295 8371 3295 8373 3293 8375
      3299 8404 3320 8404 3320 8412 3325 8412
      3328 8409 3330 8410 3330 8367 3291 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 277DEG 14KT 3314 8391

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
755 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ059-060-072-073-100030-
755 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND 45 MPH
WINDS IN PUTNAM...JONES...BALDWIN AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
EDT...

AT 754 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM ADGATEVILLE TO WAYSIDE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS PUTNAM...JONES...BALDWIN AND JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE JARRELL
PLANTATION...MCELHENEYS CROSSROADS...MONTICELLO...ADGATEVILLE...
WAYSIDE...CLINTON...ROUND OAK...HILLSBORO...PIEDMONT...POSTELL...
BRADLEY...GRAY...JAMES...BROWNS CROSSING AND MOUNTAIN SPRINGS. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 8368 3298 8372 3303 8372 3313 8382
      3318 8383 3319 8381 3321 8383 3325 8381
      3333 8384 3334 8386 3333 8334 3313 8334
      3294 8331 3288 8344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 271DEG 15KT 3324 8371 3313 8370
          3302 8363