Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
532 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO TREND HIGHER POPS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LINGERING WEDGE FRONT...THEN PUSHING FURTHER EAST
THIS EVENING PER THE CONSENSUS OF LATEST HI-RES SOLUTIONS. MORNING
CLOUD DECK ALLOWED FOR SOLAR SHELTERING AND IN-SITU REINFORCEMENT
OF THE WEDGE TODAY...DELAYING THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD AND
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. HAVE THEREFORE ADJUSTED SKY COVER
ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A WARM LAYER
AROUND H5 IS DAMPENING THE AMOUNT OF THUNDER AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH
OF THE TSTORMS. THIS HAS BECOME MORE OF A BREATHING IN DAY FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER SUNSET. ALL MODELS HAVE
THE NEXT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY. WITH NO
WARM LAYER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND WITH HIGHER CAPES...EXPECT MORE
THUNDER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE WEDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE THIS MORNING HAS EXITED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AS WINDS IN MOST AREAS HAVE GONE
SOUTHWEST. A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE CWA IN THE UNSTABLE MOISTURE AIRMASS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEDGE MAY BUILD BACK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
AGAIN SUNDAY WHICH IS CREATING A PROBLEMATIC TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR THE GVL/AHN/NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH
A MAV/MET BLEND FOR THOSE AREAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

17

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. 12Z GFS MODEL RUN IS TRENDING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
ALL-IN-ALL THESE TRENDS ARE WELL REPRESENTED IN THE CURRENT LONG
TERM FORECAST GRIDS AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION
BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES A FRONT SHOULD GET PUSHED INTO GEORGIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
SHOW DRIER AIR SINKING INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE SHOWN MINIMAL POPS
FOR THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THE AIR MASS LOOKS STABLE
ENOUGH ON THURSDAY SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER NIGHTS
EXPECTED MID WEEK...AFTERNOONS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOST CIGS HAVE GONE OR WILL BE AT VFR BY 18Z ISSUANCE. CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REFORM LATE TONIGHT...BECOMING VFR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS HAVE GONE OR WILL SOON BE GOING WEST/SOUTHWEST
AND WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST. SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  87  71  87 /  60  60  60  40
ATLANTA         72  86  72  88 /  60  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  79  67  82 /  60  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  87  70  89 /  60  60  60  40
COLUMBUS        74  89  74  93 /  60  60  60  50
GAINESVILLE     71  83  71  85 /  60  60  60  40
MACON           72  89  72  92 /  60  60  60  50
ROME            71  88  71  89 /  50  60  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  72  88  72  90 /  60  60  60  40
VIDALIA         73  92  73  94 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17/BAKER
LONG TERM...41/20
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1210 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-100900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1210 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND
INTERACT WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AIR
SHOULD SPREAD INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ080-091>093-092030-
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN SCHLEY...MARION...MACON AND TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RUPERT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SCHLEY...MARION...MACON AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CEDAR CREEK...FIVE
POINTS...TAZEWELL...MAUK...CHARING...CONCORD...BUTLER...RUPERT...
MURRAYS CROSSROADS...FOUNTAINVILLE...BARTLETT...GARDEN VALLEY...
HICKS...IDEAL AND POTTERVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 8454 3259 8438 3257 8405 3255 8404
      3255 8402 3253 8400 3250 8402 3251 8399
      3223 8415 3223 8418 3222 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 291DEG 9KT 3247 8430

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
433 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ080-091>093-092100-
433 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN SCHLEY...MARION...MACON AND TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 432 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TAZEWELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS SCHLEY...MARION...MACON AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE FIVE
POINTS...BRANTLEY...TAZEWELL...BUENA VISTA...MAUK...CHARING...CEDAR
CREEK...CONCORD...IDEAL...WALLS CROSSING...MURRAYS CROSSROADS...
ELLAVILLE...PUTNAM...DOYLE AND RUPERT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3253 8421 3245 8405 3216 8436 3233 8462
      3251 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 306DEG 5KT 3238 8443

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ067>069-079-092130-
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN TALBOT...PIKE...MERIWETHER AND UPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 458 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WOODBURY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TALBOT...PIKE...MERIWETHER AND UPSON COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MOLENA...RALEIGH...
IMLAC...WOODBURY...WARM SPRINGS...MANCHESTER...GAY...SPREWELL BLUFF
STATE PARK...PLEASANT HILL...CREST...ROWLAND...BIG LAZER CREEK WMA...
REDBONE CROSSROADS...HANNAHS MILL AND ATWATER. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 8459 3303 8426 3303 8427 3299 8427
      3299 8418 3273 8430 3272 8431 3272 8433
      3287 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 289DEG 11KT 3297 8452

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
529 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ042-092215-
529 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN CARROLL COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 525 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOUNT ZION TO 6 MILES WEST OF BLACKJACK
MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CARROLL COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE MOUNT ZION...BOWDON JUNCTION...BOWDON...JOHN TANNER
STATE PARK...BLACKJACK MOUNTAIN...ABILENE...TYUS...TREASURE LAKE...
ROOPVILLE AND CARROLLTON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3366 8528 3370 8515 3369 8511 3371 8508
      3371 8490 3364 8490 3352 8503 3343 8506
      3342 8522 3344 8531 3361 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 268DEG 10KT 3364 8519 3352 8533
          3344 8535

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
553 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ089-090-092245-
553 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND 40 MPH WINDS IN
MUSCOGEE AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 550 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BENNING PARK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MUSCOGEE AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FORT BENNING/LAWSON ARMY
AIR FIELD...LAUREL HILLS...COLUMBUS METROPOLITAN AIRPORT...GREEN
ISLAND HILLS...HIGHLAND PARK...AVONDALE...SAINT MARYS HILLS...BENNING
PARK...CARTER ACRES...BATTLE PARK...COLUMBUS...ROSE
HILL...EDGEWOOD...BIBB CITY AND CUSTER ROAD TERRACE. THESE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND OTHER NORMALLY
PRONE OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8501 3249 8466 3223 8466 3235 8501
      3236 8499 3239 8499 3243 8497 3246 8501
      3249 8500 3252 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 285DEG 7KT 3243 8493

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
555 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ091-092-092300-
555 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND 40 MPH WINDS IN
SCHLEY AND MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 552 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DRANEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SCHLEY AND MARION COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ZELLOBEE...BUENA VISTA...DRANEVILLE...
DOYLE...PUTNAM...WALLS CROSSING...CONCORD...LA CROSSE...MURRAYS
CROSSROADS AND ELLAVILLE. THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND OTHER NORMALLY PRONE OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3219 8460 3221 8460 3223 8463 3224 8466
      3238 8466 3233 8425 3230 8425 3229 8422
      3216 8423 3217 8426 3216 8428 3217 8442
      3215 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 279DEG 8KT 3224 8453