Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
124 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SHORT
TERM...HOWEVER THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES AND THEY DID NOT HANDLE THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WELL YESTERDAY. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL IMPACT THE AREA...AS NAM IS OUTLIER IN DEVELOPING A SHORT
WAVE OVER MS/AL BY THIS EVENING...AND SHOWS COLD AIR DAMMING
SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST GA BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW..HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO GFS/ECMWF/SREF...KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AFTER THIS MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS
INTO TN VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GA THROUGH TOMORROW PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
BEST POP CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS WITH
THE BETTER INSTABILITIES... PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND WITH
SATURATED GROUNDS PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO
DEVELOP. ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS AL INTO GA
COULD SEE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER BY LATE MORNING
ALLOWING HEATING EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TRICKY AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW LONG CLOUDS/RAIN LINGER
AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. MAV TEMPERATURES DID PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY
AND PLAN TO START THERE AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO ADJUST AS
NECESSARY.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES A FRONT SHOULD GET PUSHED INTO GEORGIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
SHOW DRIER AIR SINKING INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE SHOWN MINIMAL POPS
FOR THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THE AIR MASS LOOKS STABLE
ENOUGH ON THURSDAY SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER NIGHTS
EXPECTED MID WEEK...AFTERNOONS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOST CIGS HAVE GONE OR WILL BE AT VFR BY 18Z ISSUANCE. CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REFORM LATE TONIGHT...BECOMING VFR LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS HAVE GONE OR WILL SOON BE GOIN WEST/SOUTHWEST
AND WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST. SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  72  86  70 /  60  60  50  40
ATLANTA         88  72  86  73 /  60  60  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     81  67  80  66 /  70  70  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    87  72  87  70 /  60  60  50  40
COLUMBUS        92  74  90  74 /  50  50  50  40
GAINESVILLE     84  71  82  71 /  60  60  50  40
MACON           91  73  89  72 /  60  60  50  40
ROME            88  72  87  71 /  60  60  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  89  72  88  71 /  60  60  50  40
VIDALIA         91  74  91  75 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...ATWELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1210 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-100900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1210 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND
INTERACT WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AIR
SHOULD SPREAD INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1057 AM EDT SAT AUG 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE FLOYD              33.84N  84.58W
08/08/2014                   COBB               GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED 4 TREES AND MULTIPLE LARGE LIMBS DOWN
            ALONG FLOYD ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400781

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
129 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ093-095-105-091800-
129 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN MACON...DOOLY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 127 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WHITEWATER STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MACON...DOOLY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FOUNTAINVILLE...BARTLETT...GARDEN
VALLEY...WHITEWATER STATE PARK...CLEARVIEW...OGLETHORPE...
MONTEZUMA...FLINT RIVER WMA...UNADILLA...PINEHURST...LILLY...
DOOLING...BYROMVILLE AND FIVE POINTS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8404 3217 8403 3219 8405 3219 8410
      3221 8414 3223 8414 3223 8417 3226 8422
      3230 8423 3247 8412 3229 8366 3205 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 299DEG 17KT 3234 8407