Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FIRING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY /ALBEIT DIFFUSE/
REMAINING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. CONTINUED MENTION OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...BUT ENVIRONMENT IS MORE STABLE AND INITIATION
WILL BE DIFFICULT IF AT ALL.

AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP ON THE AREA AND RETROGRADES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT TREND OF SHOWING GOOD
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE BETTER FRIDAY...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO ADVERTISE MUCH. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ON EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT SHIFTS...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE
REMAINING SOUTHERN CWA WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO USE THE MODEL BLEND WHICH AS BEEN APPROPRIATE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR /BUT LARGELY BELOW/ 100 DEGREES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. PLEASE USE
EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE SUMMER HEAT.

31

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LONG TERM
BEGINS WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY AREA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE FAVORED
THE NORTH FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER
THAT...RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS ESPECIALLY SHOWS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH GA. OTHERWISE IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE BASICALLY A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE FRONT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD WILL GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE STATE.

41/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT CU 5-6KFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. VCSH ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND NEAR CSG.
WINDS WILL FAVOR NW WITH A FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH NE...AND
GENERALLY 7KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  70  95 /  20  30  20  50
ATLANTA         73  92  73  92 /  20  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  85  66  85 /  20  40  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    67  91  69  90 /  20  30  20  50
COLUMBUS        73  95  73  95 /  20  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  91  72  90 /  20  30  20  50
MACON           69  96  70  95 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            68  92  69  89 /  20  30  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  68  92  69  92 /  20  30  20  30
VIDALIA         72  96  73  95 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31