Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE HAS BEGUN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST...LOSING ITS GRASP
ON THE AREA. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHERE ACTIVITY SEEMED CONFINED TO
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH NO PARTICULAR FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALREADY HAVE GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE
GREATER ATL METRO AREA AND IN THE SE CWA. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND WITH LITTLE
OVERALL MOVEMENT TO THESE STORMS...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGH
RETREATED FROM THE AREA AND AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND APPROACH NORTH GEORGIA. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
AMPLE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO
SUNDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE SEEN MORE ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND HAVE KEPT POPS HIGHEST THERE AND ALONG THE EASTERN CWA
BORDER AS A RESULT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN TRENDS IN COVERAGE
EXPECTED...WITH ALL OR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL KEEP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN WHAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND EXPECT
THIS CLOSER-TO-SEASONAL-NORMS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

31

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TRENDS OUTLINED IN PREVIOUS LONG
TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WNW BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY AND THEN BECOMES WSW INTO THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER PATTERNS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL GIVE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA OR SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. AMPLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...MOST SO FROM MONDAY ON...AND MOST SO DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES VARYING ONLY SLIGHTLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

BDL

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF A TEMPO FOR -TSRA IS NECESSARY.
NW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING TO 8-10KT BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY.
COVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION IS HIGHER FOR SATURDAY...AND
HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR 19-23Z FOR -TSRA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  94  69  93 /  20  20  20  30
ATLANTA         73  90  71  90 /  20  30  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     65  85  64  86 /  20  30  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  90  67  89 /  20  30  20  20
COLUMBUS        74  95  73  93 /  20  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  90  70  89 /  20  30  20  30
MACON           70  95  70  93 /  20  30  20  30
ROME            69  89  67  89 /  20  40  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  91  68  91 /  20  30  20  20
VIDALIA         73  96  73  93 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED..
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
322 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

GAZ031-041-042-201945-
322 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN PAULDING...
CARROLL AND HARALSON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
GUST FRONT AHEAD OF A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BREMEN TO
NEW GEORGIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. WI

WINDS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THIS LINE.
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE GUST FRONT
PASSES. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL AFTER THE
GUSTY WINDS AND STORMS HAVE PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3376 8490 3367 8512 3381 8521 3388 8503
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 316DEG 10KT 3379 8507

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

GAZ052-053-066-202030-
354 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN NORTHERN TROUP...SOUTHWESTERN COWETA AND SOUTHEASTERN HEARD
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 349 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED JUST EAST OF POWERS CROSSROADS. ANOTHER
STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF CORINTH...BOTH MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS TROUP...COWETA AND HEARD COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
HARRISONVILLE...CORINTH AND HOGANSVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 8486 3318 8486 3308 8497 3323 8500
      3334 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 348DEG 10KT 3331 8496 3322 8497

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
424 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

GAZ104-105-202100-
424 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA SIZED
HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS IN SUMTER AND DOOLY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

AT 420 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR THE FLINT RIVER WMA...MOVING SOUTH
AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SUMTER AND DOOLY COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FLINT RIVER WMA...PENNINGTON...METHVINS...
DRAYTON...LAMAR...HUNTINGTON...COBB...LESLIE AND DESOTO. MOVE
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8410 3215 8397 3203 8394 3202 8396
      3192 8392 3191 8393 3191 8420
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 003DEG 8KT 3210 8402

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
509 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

GAZ055-202145-
509 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN CLAYTON COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 508 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR MORROW...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS CLAYTON COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE FORT GILLEM...LAKE CITY...MORROW...
RIVERDALE...FOREST PARK...JONESBORO...LAKE SPIVEY...IRONDALE...
LOVEJOY...JW SMITH RESERVOIR AND BONANZA.

&&

LAT...LON 3363 8433 3355 8428 3354 8429 3349 8428
      3344 8429 3344 8435 3342 8436 3341 8438
      3343 8441 3345 8438 3347 8438 3350 8442
      3355 8444 3355 8446 3361 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 348DEG 9KT 3355 8434

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
534 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

GAZ092-093-104-202200-
534 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN SUMTER...SCHLEY AND MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTH OF FOUNTAINVILLE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SUMTER...SCHLEY AND MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FOUNTAINVILLE...BUMPHEAD...
ANDERSONVILLE...ANDERSONVILLE NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE...
PENNINGTON...METHVINS AND NEW ERA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM
HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3211 8405 3210 8423 3229 8426 3231 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 355DEG 11KT 3223 8415

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
542 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

GAZ069-081-202215-
542 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA SIZED
HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS IN UPSON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...

AT 538 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROBERTA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS UPSON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ROBERTA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3268 8415 3284 8419 3285 8412 3285 8410
      3270 8398 3268 8410 3268 8411 3267 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 337DEG 9KT 3280 8412