Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1139 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...GENERALLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT WARMING TRENDS...AND TO TRY TO PIN DOWN
POP/WX TIMING TO HOURLY INTERVALS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
/THUNDERSTORMS/ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 8 PM...AND
REALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER...EXCEPT POTENTIALLY IN FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODELS AS THEY COME
IN THIS MORNING AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.

31

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ITS HOLD ON THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS...IT IS HARD TO FAVOR ANY ONE AREA OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND. BUT HAVE STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEPT CHANCE
POPS FOR NORTH AND WEST...SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY MAY
BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AREA WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTH GA.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON HOW FAR INTO THE STATE THIS FRONT WILL
GET...BUT GFS/NAM INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY MAY SINK INTO CENTRAL ZONES
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY LATE
SATURDAY. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE...ON THE WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE. MAY BE A BIT COOLER NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE POSSIBLE.

41

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WNW BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY AND THEN BECOMES WSW INTO THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER
PATTERNS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL GIVE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA OR SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...MOST SO FROM MONDAY ON...AND MOST SO DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES VARYING ONLY SLIGHTLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT FOR THIS
TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL AROUND 15Z AND
THEN THEY SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST 10KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  71  93  71 /  30  20  50  20
ATLANTA         93  73  89  73 /  30  20  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     87  65  85  66 /  40  30  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    91  69  89  69 /  30  20  50  20
COLUMBUS        96  73  94  73 /  30  20  30  30
GAINESVILLE     91  71  88  71 /  30  20  50  20
MACON           95  71  94  71 /  20  20  30  30
ROME            92  70  88  70 /  30  20  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  69  90  69 /  30  20  40  20
VIDALIA         96  73  95  73 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED..
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1053 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW BLAIRSVILLE       34.93N  83.99W
06/19/2014                   UNION              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6 TREES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. TWO WERE AT
            THIS LOCATION...TWO OTHERS WERE THROUGHOUT BLAIRSVILLE
            AND ONE WAS NEAR SUCCHES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400717

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
121 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

GAZ011-019-201745-
121 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 118 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES WEST OF COOSA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES...INCLUDING
AREAS AROUND COOSA. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS.
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3436 8540 3425 8524 3409 8540 3418 8545
      3426 8547
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 316DEG 9KT 3423 8542

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

GAZ019-201815-
143 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
IN FLOYD COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
COOSA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS FLOYD COUNTY...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND COOSA
AND CAVE SPRING. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3413 8511 3408 8534 3420 8540 3428 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 319DEG 12KT 3418 8536