Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FIRING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY /ALBEIT DIFFUSE/
REMAINING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. CONTINUED MENTION OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...BUT ENVIRONMENT IS MORE STABLE AND INITIATION
WILL BE DIFFICULT IF AT ALL.

AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP ON THE AREA AND RETROGRADES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT TREND OF SHOWING GOOD
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE BETTER FRIDAY...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO ADVERTISE MUCH. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ON EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT SHIFTS...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE
REMAINING SOUTHERN CWA WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO USE THE MODEL BLEND WHICH AS BEEN APPROPRIATE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR /BUT LARGELY BELOW/ 100 DEGREES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. PLEASE USE
EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE SUMMER HEAT.

31

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LONG TERM
BEGINS WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY AREA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE FAVORED
THE NORTH FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER
THAT...RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS ESPECIALLY SHOWS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH GA. OTHERWISE IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE BASICALLY A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE FRONT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD WILL GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE STATE.

41/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT CU 5-6KFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. VCSH ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND NEAR CSG.
WINDS WILL FAVOR NW WITH A FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH NE...AND
GENERALLY 7KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  70  95 /  20  30  20  50
ATLANTA         73  92  73  92 /  20  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  85  66  85 /  20  40  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    67  91  69  90 /  20  30  20  50
COLUMBUS        73  95  73  95 /  20  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  91  72  90 /  20  30  20  50
MACON           69  96  70  95 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            68  92  69  89 /  20  30  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  68  92  69  92 /  20  30  20  30
VIDALIA         72  96  73  95 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
433 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-200845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
433 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
419 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

GAZ005>007-192115-
419 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN MURRAY...FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ETON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MURRAY...FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SUMAC...GREGORY...NORTH
GEORGIA SPEEDWAY...TENNGA...CHATSWORTH...CISCO...ETON...CRANDALL...
RAMHURST...FORT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...TAILS CREEK...MOUNTAINTOWN...
HIGDON...COLWELL AND COHUTTA WILDERNESS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 8445 3467 8456 3469 8491 3471 8494
      3472 8485 3473 8487 3473 8486 3479 8487
      3480 8484 3481 8486 3484 8485 3487 8482
      3492 8484 3499 8479 3499 8425
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 280DEG 7KT 3482 8481

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
507 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

GAZ006>009-015-016-192145-
507 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WHITE...UNION...TOWNS...LUMPKIN...FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

AT 503 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM VOGEL STATE PARK TO MARGRET...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WHITE...UNION...TOWNS...LUMPKIN...FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES
THROUGH 545 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE CAMP MERRILL...HAWK MOUNTAIN SHELTER...OWLTOWN...STOVER CREEK
SHELTER...MARGRET...GADDISTOWN...VOGEL STATE PARK...GOOCH MOUNTAIN
SHELTER...LOW GAP SHELTER...WHITLEY GAP SHELTER...CAMP COLEMAN
LAKE...BLOOD MOUNTAIN SHELTER...TURNERS CORNER...PORTER SPRINGS AND
WOODS HOLE SHELTER. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8374 3475 8379 3458 8390 3466 8429
      3478 8411 3484 8406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 272DEG 7KT 3478 8393 3476 8396
          3475 8410

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
515 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             CANAL LAKE              34.90N  84.00W
06/19/2014  E1.00 INCH       UNION              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            UNION COUNTY 911 CENTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL
            NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400707

JLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
519 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

GAZ008-009-015-016-192145-
519 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WHITE...UNION...TOWNS AND LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 517 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HIAWASSEE TO TRACK ROCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WHITE...UNION...TOWNS AND LUMPKIN COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE HIAWASSEE...
BRASSTOWN BALD...YOUNG HARRIS...TRACK ROCK...MACEDONIA...BLUE
MOUNTAIN SHELTER...QUALATCHEE LAKE...SMITHGALL WOODS CONSERVATION
AREA...UNICOI STATE PARK...ANNA RUBY FALLS...ROBERTSTOWN...HELEN...
SAUTEE...CLEVELAND AND PLUM ORCHARD GAP SHELTER. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8354 3493 8359 3488 8365 3482 8365
      3480 8367 3475 8362 3465 8365 3454 8361
      3452 8364 3458 8391 3475 8380 3479 8374
      3482 8390 3499 8382 3500 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 308DEG 7KT 3496 8369 3484 8382
          3480 8385

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
546 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

GAZ015-016-023-192230-
546 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WHITE...LUMPKIN AND HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM ANNA RUBY FALLS TO MURRAYVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WHITE...LUMPKIN AND HALL COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE WHITLEY GAP SHELTER...
CAMP COLEMAN LAKE...TURNERS CORNER...DAHLONEGA...PORTER SPRINGS...
ANNA RUBY FALLS...QUALATCHEE LAKE...SMITHGALL WOODS CONSERVATION
AREA...ROBERTSTOWN...GARLAND...UNICOI STATE PARK...HELEN...
MURRAYVILLE...SAUTEE AND CLEVELAND. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8363 3473 8362 3465 8365 3454 8361
      3451 8365 3446 8363 3427 8375 3439 8399
      3440 8397 3444 8403 3464 8395 3472 8383
      3479 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 323DEG 11KT 3476 8376 3460 8392
          3444 8397