Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FIRING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY /ALBEIT DIFFUSE/
REMAINING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. CONTINUED MENTION OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...BUT ENVIRONMENT IS MORE STABLE AND INITIATION
WILL BE DIFFICULT IF AT ALL.

AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP ON THE AREA AND RETROGRADES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT TREND OF SHOWING GOOD
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE BETTER FRIDAY...BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO ADVERTISE MUCH. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ON EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT SHIFTS...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE
REMAINING SOUTHERN CWA WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND HAVE CONTINUED
TO USE THE MODEL BLEND WHICH AS BEEN APPROPRIATE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR /BUT LARGELY BELOW/ 100 DEGREES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. PLEASE USE
EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE SUMMER HEAT.

31

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LONG TERM
BEGINS WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY AREA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE FAVORED
THE NORTH FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER
THAT...RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS ESPECIALLY SHOWS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH GA. OTHERWISE IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE BASICALLY A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE FRONT AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD WILL GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE STATE.

41/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT CU 5-6KFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. VCSH ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND NEAR CSG.
WINDS WILL FAVOR NW WITH A FEW LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH NE...AND
GENERALLY 7KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  70  95 /  20  30  20  50
ATLANTA         73  92  73  92 /  20  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  85  66  85 /  20  40  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    67  91  69  90 /  20  30  20  50
COLUMBUS        73  95  73  95 /  20  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     71  91  72  90 /  20  30  20  50
MACON           69  96  70  95 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            68  92  69  89 /  20  30  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  68  92  69  92 /  20  30  20  30
VIDALIA         72  96  73  95 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
433 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-200845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
433 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

GAZ003>005-192015-
348 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN WHITFIELD...MURRAY AND CATOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM GRAYSVILLE TO DALTON...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WHITFIELD...MURRAY AND CATOOSA COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE DALTON...ROCKY
FACE...TUNNEL HILL...RINGGOLD...GRAYSVILLE...SALEM...VARNELL...NORTH
GEORGIA SPEEDWAY...DAWNVILLE...RAMHURST...FORT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
CHATSWORTH...ETON...CRANDALL AND SUMAC. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8465 3463 8466 3466 8493 3498 8517
      3499 8516 3499 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 276DEG 14KT 3498 8509 3484 8496
          3475 8488

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
359 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

GAZ002>004-192045-
359 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN WHITFIELD...WALKER AND CATOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 354 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LINWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHITFIELD...WALKER AND CATOOSA COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LAFAYETTE...LINWOOD...
NOBLE...ROCK SPRING...NAOMI...BEAUMONT...TILTON...MILL CREEK...WOOD
STATION AND VILLANOW. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 8491 3465 8535 3485 8525 3487 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 270DEG 6KT 3474 8526

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
415 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

GAZ006>008-192115-
415 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN UNION...FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HEMP TO CHERRY LOG...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS UNION...FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ELLIJAY...LOVING...
MINERAL BLUFF...BLUE RIDGE...MORGANTON...CHERRY LOG...NOTTELY DAM...
HEMP...IVY LOG...HURST...JONES CREEK...BLAIRSVILLE...PISGAH...MARGRET
AND DIAL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8394 3492 8390 3480 8406 3466 8427
      3470 8455 3487 8443 3499 8425 3499 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 280DEG 7KT 3491 8416 3486 8432
          3478 8445