Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT PUSHED THROUGH AND BROUGHT ALL THE
CONVECTION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAK
RIDGING HAS BUILT IN ALOFT AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS
FILTERING IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE WITH WEAK LAGGING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN SLOW TO FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THAT IT WILL START PICKING UP SHORTLY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE INSTABILITY IS
HIGHER AND INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE FELT A LITTLE BETTER.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS WILL
LIKELY PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...SO
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ACCORDINGLY. UPPER RIDGE
PUSHES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST PLACING THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF ANOTHER...STRONGER...
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTH GEORGIA...BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
AHEAD OF REMNANT CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PUSH IN CLOSER TO SUNRISE...
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO LAST NIGHT /THOUGH TEMPS DID GET
COOLER THAN FORECAST LAST NIGHT/...BUT GENERALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES EXCEPT AGAIN UP IN NORTHERN ZONES.

TDP

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FOR NOW...WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
500MB TROUGH. ATMOS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AT THE
SURFACE...SO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE TROUBLE
RESOLVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THIS FAR OUT...THE TIMING WILL BE HARD
TO NAIL DOWN. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA TO LIKELY.

THE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE PROGGING A LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE/E GA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE COULD HELP TO
INITIATE/FOCUS PRECIP.

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU 4-5KFT EXPECTED. ISOLATED TSRA
STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN TAFS BUT REMOVED TEMPO FROM
NORTHERN TAFS...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE. SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA ON MONDAY...POSSIBLY MORE NORTH
WITH INFLUENCE OFF UPPER SYSTEM. WINDS GENERALLY W THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION...LOW ON IMPACTS TO ATL.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  89  69  92 /  20  30  20  40
ATLANTA         70  87  71  88 /  20  30  20  40
BLAIRSVILLE     58  81  63  84 /  20  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    65  85  68  88 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        72  91  72  89 /  30  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     67  85  69  88 /  20  30  20  40
MACON           70  92  70  92 /  30  30  10  30
ROME            65  85  68  87 /  20  40  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  67  88  67  88 /  30  30  20  40
VIDALIA         72  92  74  94 /  40  30  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...TDP

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