Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
829 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014

.UPDATE...
I HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY STOUT WAVE SWEEPING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
AN ACTIVE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
EVENING AND SWEEPING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WELL IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA BEFORE SUN-UP. ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT TIMING WILL LIMIT
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOME...IT DOES NOT ELIMINATE THE
THREAT COMPLETELY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS EARLY IN THE
MORNING IT SHOULD LEAVE A STABLE COLD POOL IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND I
HAVE PUSHED THE BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BACK UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A BIT OF A MINIMUM SUNDAY MORNING.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY IS GENERALLY SUPPRESSING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THUS FAR WITH ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE TOPOGRAPHY IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
LIFT. SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...BUT THE SOUTHERN END WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT. EXPECT
TYPICAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE
PUSHES EAST BUT LEAVES WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO LAST A LITTLE LATER THAN
MIGHT OTHERWISE BE TYPICAL. WITH MODERATE CAPE VALUES...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD REMAIN
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BUT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE
MOISTURE LEVELS...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TDP

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY MONDAY WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION...SO POPS ARE A
LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS TREK NORTHWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MESOSCALE FEATURES SHOULD PROVIDE
ANY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AT THE SURFACE...AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY OF
STORMS. SO...NO CHANGES TO THE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP COOL TEMPERATURES OFF A FEW DEGREES.

NLISTEMAA

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z WITH
SCATTERED MVFR AND LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BY 08Z THROUGH 14Z.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH 04Z WITH SCATTERED OR BETTER COVERAGE
ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVING
ACROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z. WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS...BUT STRONGER AND
GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10KTS AFTER 14Z
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  90  68  90 /  50  50  40  40
ATLANTA         71  88  71  88 /  50  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  83  62  83 /  50  50  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  89  67  87 /  50  50  40  40
COLUMBUS        72  91  73  92 /  30  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     69  88  69  86 /  50  50  40  40
MACON           69  91  70  91 /  30  50  40  40
ROME            69  89  67  87 /  50  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  67  90  67  89 /  50  50  40  40
VIDALIA         70  88  73  91 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1105 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1105 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH ALABAMA WILL
MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
AND WESTCENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA AND THIS COULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
NEAR 45 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM DALTON...TO PEACHTREE CITY TO AMERICUS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL HELP ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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