Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2014

Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

October 2, 2014Randolph County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this special weather statement at Oct 2, 2014, 4:52 PM CDT for Randolph County, Missouri. It was in force for 23 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 2, 2014, 4:52 PM CDT (21:52 UTC)
Expired: Oct 2, 2014, 5:15 PM CDT
In force: 23 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO

County Randolph County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 169 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 277 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1377 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -76 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 736 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 226 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 200 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 4.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 2, 2:48 PM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 2:48 PM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
248 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The ongoing thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and early
evening ahead of a deep layer trough and an approaching cold front.
As of 19Z the cold front was just entering the northwest portion of
the CWA and slowly advancing eastward. The severe threat, hail and
wind, is very limited for our CWA and located across our far
southern counties along and south of a warm front. The front has
made very little northward progress due to reinforced cool air from
the morning/early afternoon convection to its north and thus it is
not expected to move much this afternoon. By later this evening the
warm sector will be shunted east with the passage of the
aforementioned cold front with much of the deeper convection east of
the CWA. There will be a low chance for post-frontal showers
and isolated elevated thunderstorms overnight tonight, but that
activity should not amount to much...per the HRRR and current 88D trends.

Near sunrise tomorrow a secondary cold front quickly moves in and
through the CWA behind the departing upper level trough. It will be rather
breezy behind the front with northwest winds gusting to as high as
30 MPH advecting much cooler and drier air.  There will also be a
low chance pops for widely scattered showers...very hit or
miss...and diurnally driven.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

Any clouds lingering into Friday evening over central Missouri will
be fast to scatter out leaving clear skies overnight. This will set
the stage for one of the coldest nights of the season so far with
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across much of the area. Some
guidance is bringing parts of northern Missouri down below freezing,
but this seems too cold since west winds should remain around 5 to 10
mph overnight. Coldest temperatures should be west of us, closer to
the low-level ridge axis. Could still see some patchy frost across
eastern KS into northern Missouri early Saturday morning particularly
in areas sheltered from a westerly wind.

This ridge axis will pass overhead on Saturday keeping temperatures
seasonably chilly with highs in the 50s. Southerly winds on the back
side of this feature will prevent Saturday night's temperatures from
getting much below 40 degrees while Sunday sees a nice warm up into
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

On Monday a very weak wave will rotate into the area on the back side
of a large Great Lakes upper trough. Could see a few showers from
this feature but overall precipitation chances are only 30 percent or
so. Once this passes through, slow height rises will build into the
Plains and allow temperatures to warm into the middle and upper 70s
by Weds and Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

There will be several more rounds of TSRA this afternoon that will
briefly lower VIS as they pass over the terminals. CIS should remain
IFR to perhaps low MVFR before a cold front moves through over the
next few hours. Behind the front current CIGS are IFR so I maintain
that into the evening before slow improvement tonight. Another cold
front arrives near sunrise tomorrow that will create breezy northwest
winds and a SCT-BKN cloud deck through much of the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-060.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ033-040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Pietrycha

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 2, 3:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 2, 12:02 PM CDT, 4 hours 50 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1202 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MOZ013-014-021>023-030-021730-
CALDWELL MO-CLINTON MO-DAVIESS MO-DE KALB MO-LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-
1202 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RAY...SOUTHWESTERN
LIVINGSTON...SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB...SOUTHERN DAVIESS...NORTHERN
CLINTON AND CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT NOON CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSBORN TO 7 MILES
SOUTH OF CAMERON TO POLO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CAMERON...MAYSVILLE...HAMILTON...GALLATIN...OSBORN...KINGSTON...
  COWGILL...BRAYMER...BRECKENRIDGE...KIDDER...WEATHERBY...WINSTON...
  SANTA ROSA...LUDLOW...ALTAMONT...MOORESVILLE...LOCK SPRINGS AND
  DAWN.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 42 AND 73.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3991 9380 3965 9357 3961 9367 3961 9376
      3957 9376 3945 9408 3960 9430 3973 9460
      3974 9460 4004 9418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 238DEG 36KT 3975 9439 3965 9419
          3956 9405

32

Special weather statement, Oct 2, 4:04 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

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Local storm report, Oct 2, 4:17 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 2, 4:23 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 2, 4:38 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 2, 4:52 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 1, 8:08 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper, Saline	4 days
Oct 1, 8:08 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper	59 hr
Oct 1, 8:08 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper	68 hr
Oct 1, 9:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Platte	38 min
Oct 1, 9:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Platte	31 min
Oct 1, 9:58 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Platte	6 hr
Oct 1, 10:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Ray	52 min
Oct 1, 10:30 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Ray	9 hr
Oct 1, 10:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Bates	45 min
Oct 1, 11:00 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton	9 hr
Oct 2, 12:12 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Randolph	8 hr
Oct 2, 12:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Cass	38 min
Oct 2, 12:39 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass	36 min
Oct 2, 4:44 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Johnson, Pettis	57 hr
Oct 2, 6:20 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Atchison	55 min
Oct 2, 7:00 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Cooper, Pettis	6 hr
Oct 2, 8:02 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Cooper, Howard, Randolph	4 hr
Oct 2, 8:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Platte	40 min
Oct 2, 8:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Ray	34 hr
Oct 2, 8:55 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cass, Henry, Johnson	57 hr
Oct 2, 8:55 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry	68 hr
Oct 2, 9:28 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Platte	3 hr
Oct 2, 9:34 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Holt	41 min
Oct 2, 9:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Ray	67 hr
Oct 2, 9:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Jackson, Lafayette, Ray	4 days
Oct 2, 9:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Lafayette, Saline	4 days
Oct 2, 9:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton, Saline	5 days
Oct 2, 9:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Chariton, Howard, Saline	3 days
Oct 2, 9:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper, Howard	4 days
Oct 2, 11:49 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Clay, Ray	33 hr
Oct 2, 11:49 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll	54 hr
Oct 2, 12:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Caldwell, Daviess	28 min
Oct 2, 12:30 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Cass, Clay, Jackson, Platte, Ray	3 hr
Oct 2, 3:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Henry	36 min
Oct 2, 4:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Saline	26 min
Oct 2, 4:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Pettis	22 min
Oct 2, 4:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Cooper	37 min
Oct 1, 7:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Atchison	39 min
Oct 1, 8:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Leavenworth	48 min
Oct 1, 9:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson, Leavenworth, Wyandotte	45 min
Oct 1, 9:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Wyandotte	33 min
Oct 1, 10:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Linn	44 min
Oct 1, 10:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Leavenworth	27 min
Oct 1, 11:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Johnson	33 min
Oct 1, 11:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson, Miami	51 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2014 Every special weather statement in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.