Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

One more day of active weather is expected before we experience a
tranquil fall like pattern for the remainder of the forecast period.
However, currently, ongoing thunderstorms are continuing across the
forecast area this morning. These storms are expected to continue
through the mid morning hours as a persistent 35-45KT LLJ will
continue to nose into the forecast area overriding a surface
boundary across the southern CWA. As the LLJ weakens and veers off
to the east this morning and storms weaken, we will turn our
attentions back across eastern Kansas where a stationary cold front
resides. An upper level shortwave wave ejecting out from an upper
level trough which is digging into the western High Plains this
morning will force the cold front eastward by mid/late morning.
Thunderstorms will then develop over the western CWA along the cold
front. However, the stationary boundary currently across the
southern CWA is expected to lift northward as a warm front during
the day leaving the area in the warm sector. Good instability may
lead to the potential for large hail early in the event. However,
these storms are eventually expected to form a linear structure with
damaging winds being the main threat for most of our area. These
storms will push east with the front across the CWA through the day
today continuing the severe weather threat. The front will exit the
area this evening however showers and a few thunderstorm may persist
tonight as the upper level trough shifts through the area.

The rest of the forecast period looks to be mostly dry with a
warming trend. Strong cold air advection coupled with strong
northwest flow aloft is expected across the area on Friday ushering
in much cooler temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 50s. The
only real concern in the extended period will come Friday
night/Saturday morning when temperatures could bottom out in the mid
to upper 30s producing a few hours of frost deposition. Any,
sensitive vegetation will need to be protected. With such a cool
start on Saturday, very little mixing, and continued northwest flow
aloft, highs Saturday will remain cool with highs in the mid 50s to
lower 60s. On Sunday, cold air advection subsides and northwest flow
aloft beings to relax. Highs Sunday will be near normal in the lower
60s to near 70.

Monday will provide the only chance for light precipitation across
the area. This will occur as a vort max rounding an upper level low
over western Ontario move through the region. Light rain will be
possible despite dry conditions. Highs will again be in the lower
60s to near 70.

There is some model discrepancies in the far reaches of the extended
as the EC moves a quick moving upper trough through the region on
Tuesday followed by upper level ridging building into the region in
its wake on Wednesday. The GFS depicts a shift to a more zonal
pattern. In any case, warmer temperatures will be in store by
Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

Thunderstorms have shifted south of the terminals this morning with
MVFR cigs over the terminals. Cigs at the terminals should lift back
to VFR by 14Z with bkn-ovc cigs btn 3-4kft except at STJ where MVFR cigs
will be slow to lift. A cold front will move thru the terminals by late
morning/early afternoon accompanied by sct ts. Have a TEMPO group for
-tsra at the terminals for the afternoon hours. Storms should shift
east of the terminals by this evening however there could be a period
of MVFR cigs behind the front this evening. Cigs will then sct
overnight as dry air moves into the region. Light south to
southeasterly winds this morning will shift to the NW behind the cold
front this morning/early afternoon and pick up to 10-15kts. Winds
will subside to 5-10kts tonight while remaining out of the NW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KSZ057-060.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR MOZ033-040-043>046-
     053-054.

&&

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
428 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-030930-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
428 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW STORMS
 COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
 OF A LINE FROM BURLINGTON KS TO LAMONI IA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
 WINDS ARE BOTH POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP...AND AN
 ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

 STORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD
 FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MOZ001-021215-
ATCHISON MO-
620 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON COUNTY UNTIL 715 AM
CDT...

AT 614 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AUBURN...OR 27 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FALLS CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TARKIO...ROCKPORT...FAIRFAX...WATSON...PHELPS CITY AND WESTBORO.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 120.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4058 9521 4048 9520 4046 9519 4027 9519
      4027 9556 4029 9556 4031 9561 4030 9565
      4032 9566 4034 9563 4041 9566 4043 9565
      4045 9565 4047 9570 4049 9569 4051 9570
      4059 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 1120Z 261DEG 30KT 4035 9589

LAFLIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
934 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ102-MOZ011-021515-
DONIPHAN KS-HOLT MO-
934 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HOLT AND NORTHERN
DONIPHAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

AT 931 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HIAWATHA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HIGHLAND...WHITE CLOUD...FOREST CITY...OREGON...IOWA POINT AND
  FANNING.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 68 AND 78.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4010 9506 4007 9506 4006 9505 3993 9500
      3992 9500 3990 9499 3981 9495 3979 9534
      4000 9534 4001 9532 4000 9531 4003 9535
      4003 9540 4003 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1434Z 258DEG 35KT 3988 9554

32

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1202 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MOZ013-014-021>023-030-021730-
CALDWELL MO-CLINTON MO-DAVIESS MO-DE KALB MO-LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-
1202 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RAY...SOUTHWESTERN
LIVINGSTON...SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB...SOUTHERN DAVIESS...NORTHERN
CLINTON AND CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT NOON CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSBORN TO 7 MILES
SOUTH OF CAMERON TO POLO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CAMERON...MAYSVILLE...HAMILTON...GALLATIN...OSBORN...KINGSTON...
  COWGILL...BRAYMER...BRECKENRIDGE...KIDDER...WEATHERBY...WINSTON...
  SANTA ROSA...LUDLOW...ALTAMONT...MOORESVILLE...LOCK SPRINGS AND
  DAWN.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 42 AND 73.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3991 9380 3965 9357 3961 9367 3961 9376
      3957 9376 3945 9408 3960 9430 3973 9460
      3974 9460 4004 9418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 238DEG 36KT 3975 9439 3965 9419
          3956 9405

32