Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1227 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

As of early afternoon, the majority of showers have exited the
forecast area, with only isolated showers or light drizzle present.
Visible satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across the
CWA. Retreating southern periphery of clouds have been noted north
of the warm front over SE KS into SW MO as of the past couple hours.
The warm front, analyzed from surface observations, radar fine
line, and cumulus field, currently stretches from Ponca City, OK to
Parsons, KS to just south of Springfield, MO. Eastern extent of this
boundary has experienced reinforced cold air from earlier and
ongoing weak convection, and even a slight southward jog of the
boundary near SGF.

Forecast concerns first hinge on potential for convection this
evening and overnight. Convective-resolving models (HRRR, EAX 4-km
WRF, LSX 12-km WRF, NAM NCEP) have shown similar outputs to
convective behavior and warm frontal position during the next 6-12
hours. Models have been very persistent in first developing
convection along the warm front in SE KS between 22-01Z. There
remains some uncertainty to how far north the warm front will reach
this evening. High-resolution model guidance places the boundary
within the southern two-tiers of counties in the CWA (Mound City to
Clinton) by early evening, but some of this northern extent may be
limited by the recent reinforcement of cooler air from showers just
north of the boundary along I-44. Nevertheless, expect the boundary
to be in/just south of the CWA by early/mid evening. Additional
convection is expected to develop along the warm front this evening,
and with a favorable environment for well-organized convection
including supercells, with large hail to golf ball-sized and damaging
wind gusts possible with these storms that remain along and just
south of the warm front. In addition, with the enhanced low-level
shear near/along the boundary, the potential for tornadoes will also
be possible. To the north of the boundary, additional convection will
develop between 02-05Z over much of the forecast area. Some of these
storms, especially south of Highway 36, will have a favorable
environment with ample elevated instability and wind shear to support
storms capable of producing severe hail. The highest probability of
these elevated storms producing severe weather will be between 02-08Z
in the CWA. Will also have to monitor any additional convection along
the warm front as it lifts northward overnight and whether the lowest
layer of the atmosphere cools and decouples. Lastly, areas along and
south of Interstate 70 received the bulk of rain this morning, with
precipitation totals exceeding one inch in many areas. With
additional moderate to heavy rainfall expected in some of these
already saturated areas tonight and Thursday, will issue a flash
flood watch for areas along Interstate 70 to account for the
potential for flash flooding.

A brief lull in the activity is anticipated during the mid morning
hours as convection moves out of the CWA. A surface low and an
accompanying cold front will move through the forecast area during
the afternoon hours. Assuming the atmosphere can recover from
earlier convection, strong dynamics/forcing should lead to another
round of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Storm mode remains in
question depending on the available instability and strong forcing,
but a brief period of discrete convection followed by an evolution
into a squall line is currently anticipated. Severe weather will be
possible, especially across the southeastern half of the CWA.
Additional details will be resolved following the convective
evolution from tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

As the departing surface low continues to wrap up and lifts off to
the northeast, unseasonably cold air will filter southward into the
forecast area on Friday into Friday night. Some of the wrap-around
precipitation may brush the northern edge of the forecast area,
possibly falling in the form of light snow across our northern tier
of counties, and a rain/snow mix a little further to the south. No
snow accumulation is expected, and very little precipitation is
possible. Highs on Friday will reach only into the 40s to perhaps
around 50 degrees, and below freezing temperatures are expected on
Friday night.

Another deepening longwave trough will head eastward across the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend, entrenching
the forecast area in west to southwest flow once again. However; a
lingering surface boundary across the southeastern U.S. and the
southern extent of the upper trough should keep any significant
precipitation south of the forecast area. On and off chances for
light rain showers are present Sunday through Tuesday, then cooler
and drier northwest flow will filter into the area again by midweek
as the upper trough pushes eastward. High temperatures this weekend
will be tempered by cloud cover and possible rain showers, and
should settle near or slightly below normal. By middle next week,
highs are more likely to remain a touch below normal as northwest
flow takes over.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Showers and occasional thunderstorms will affect the terminals
through 11Z-12Z. LIFR to VLIFR cigs with IFR vis will also remain in
the terminal sites through 15Z-16Z before finally lifting to IFR
cigs/vis. Tomorrow afternoon thunderstorms will again be possible but
is dependent on the placement of a cold front tomorrow afternoon. If
the front moves east of the terminals before storms fire conds will
remain dry if the cold front remains to the west of the terminals by
afternoon storm will fire out ahead of it and may possibly affect the
terminals. As such have included VCTS at MCI and MKC during the
afternoon. Cigs will lift up to high IFR/low MVFR by 18Z before
becoming MVFR behind the front tomorrow evening. Winds will be out of
the northeast tonight around 10kts and will gradually shift to the
east by daybreak. By mid morning winds will cont to shift to the
southeast before finally shifting to the south and picking up to
around 15kts with gusts to 25kts as a warm front moves through the
terminals during the early afternoon. The cold front will move
through the terminals between 22Z-23Z and winds will veer to the west
and pick up to 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KSZ057-105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR MOZ037>040-043>046.

&&

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
458 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-032200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
458 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED STRONG TO
 ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND
 LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH A SMALL RISK OF
 AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVER A SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
 WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
 POSSIBLE MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...
 DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
123 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     HAIL             AMORET                  38.26N 94.59W
04/03/2014  M1.00 INCH       BATES              MO   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

KBRONIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
127 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 AM     HAIL             NEW FRANKLIN            39.02N 92.74W
04/03/2014  M1.00 INCH       HOWARD             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

&&

KBRONIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
151 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 AM     HAIL             BUTLER                  38.26N 94.33W
04/03/2014  E1.25 INCH       BATES              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
154 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 AM     HAIL             BUTLER                  38.26N 94.33W
04/03/2014  E0.75 INCH       BATES              MO   PUBLIC

&&

MELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
158 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 AM     HAIL             MACON                   39.74N 92.47W
04/03/2014  E0.88 INCH       MACON              MO   AIRPLANE PILOT

            LASTED FOR 4 MINS.

&&

MELL

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