Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1227 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

As of early afternoon, the majority of showers have exited the
forecast area, with only isolated showers or light drizzle present.
Visible satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across the
CWA. Retreating southern periphery of clouds have been noted north
of the warm front over SE KS into SW MO as of the past couple hours.
The warm front, analyzed from surface observations, radar fine
line, and cumulus field, currently stretches from Ponca City, OK to
Parsons, KS to just south of Springfield, MO. Eastern extent of this
boundary has experienced reinforced cold air from earlier and
ongoing weak convection, and even a slight southward jog of the
boundary near SGF.

Forecast concerns first hinge on potential for convection this
evening and overnight. Convective-resolving models (HRRR, EAX 4-km
WRF, LSX 12-km WRF, NAM NCEP) have shown similar outputs to
convective behavior and warm frontal position during the next 6-12
hours. Models have been very persistent in first developing
convection along the warm front in SE KS between 22-01Z. There
remains some uncertainty to how far north the warm front will reach
this evening. High-resolution model guidance places the boundary
within the southern two-tiers of counties in the CWA (Mound City to
Clinton) by early evening, but some of this northern extent may be
limited by the recent reinforcement of cooler air from showers just
north of the boundary along I-44. Nevertheless, expect the boundary
to be in/just south of the CWA by early/mid evening. Additional
convection is expected to develop along the warm front this evening,
and with a favorable environment for well-organized convection
including supercells, with large hail to golf ball-sized and damaging
wind gusts possible with these storms that remain along and just
south of the warm front. In addition, with the enhanced low-level
shear near/along the boundary, the potential for tornadoes will also
be possible. To the north of the boundary, additional convection will
develop between 02-05Z over much of the forecast area. Some of these
storms, especially south of Highway 36, will have a favorable
environment with ample elevated instability and wind shear to support
storms capable of producing severe hail. The highest probability of
these elevated storms producing severe weather will be between 02-08Z
in the CWA. Will also have to monitor any additional convection along
the warm front as it lifts northward overnight and whether the lowest
layer of the atmosphere cools and decouples. Lastly, areas along and
south of Interstate 70 received the bulk of rain this morning, with
precipitation totals exceeding one inch in many areas. With
additional moderate to heavy rainfall expected in some of these
already saturated areas tonight and Thursday, will issue a flash
flood watch for areas along Interstate 70 to account for the
potential for flash flooding.

A brief lull in the activity is anticipated during the mid morning
hours as convection moves out of the CWA. A surface low and an
accompanying cold front will move through the forecast area during
the afternoon hours. Assuming the atmosphere can recover from
earlier convection, strong dynamics/forcing should lead to another
round of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Storm mode remains in
question depending on the available instability and strong forcing,
but a brief period of discrete convection followed by an evolution
into a squall line is currently anticipated. Severe weather will be
possible, especially across the southeastern half of the CWA.
Additional details will be resolved following the convective
evolution from tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

As the departing surface low continues to wrap up and lifts off to
the northeast, unseasonably cold air will filter southward into the
forecast area on Friday into Friday night. Some of the wrap-around
precipitation may brush the northern edge of the forecast area,
possibly falling in the form of light snow across our northern tier
of counties, and a rain/snow mix a little further to the south. No
snow accumulation is expected, and very little precipitation is
possible. Highs on Friday will reach only into the 40s to perhaps
around 50 degrees, and below freezing temperatures are expected on
Friday night.

Another deepening longwave trough will head eastward across the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend, entrenching
the forecast area in west to southwest flow once again. However; a
lingering surface boundary across the southeastern U.S. and the
southern extent of the upper trough should keep any significant
precipitation south of the forecast area. On and off chances for
light rain showers are present Sunday through Tuesday, then cooler
and drier northwest flow will filter into the area again by midweek
as the upper trough pushes eastward. High temperatures this weekend
will be tempered by cloud cover and possible rain showers, and
should settle near or slightly below normal. By middle next week,
highs are more likely to remain a touch below normal as northwest
flow takes over.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Showers and occasional thunderstorms will affect the terminals
through 11Z-12Z. LIFR to VLIFR cigs with IFR vis will also remain in
the terminal sites through 15Z-16Z before finally lifting to IFR
cigs/vis. Tomorrow afternoon thunderstorms will again be possible but
is dependent on the placement of a cold front tomorrow afternoon. If
the front moves east of the terminals before storms fire conds will
remain dry if the cold front remains to the west of the terminals by
afternoon storm will fire out ahead of it and may possibly affect the
terminals. As such have included VCTS at MCI and MKC during the
afternoon. Cigs will lift up to high IFR/low MVFR by 18Z before
becoming MVFR behind the front tomorrow evening. Winds will be out of
the northeast tonight around 10kts and will gradually shift to the
east by daybreak. By mid morning winds will cont to shift to the
southeast before finally shifting to the south and picking up to
around 15kts with gusts to 25kts as a warm front moves through the
terminals during the early afternoon. The cold front will move
through the terminals between 22Z-23Z and winds will veer to the west
and pick up to 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KSZ057-105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR MOZ037>040-043>046.

&&

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
458 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-032200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
458 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED STRONG TO
 ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND
 LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH A SMALL RISK OF
 AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVER A SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
 WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
 POSSIBLE MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...
 DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1104 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

MOZ044-054-030445-
HENRY MO-JOHNSON MO-
1104 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSON AND NORTHWESTERN HENRY
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1103 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF CREIGHTON...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
GARDEN CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WARRENSBURG...CHILHOWEE...LEETON...BLAIRSTOWN...POST OAK AND
  CENTERVIEW.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3852 9406 3857 9406 3857 9407 3863 9407
      3886 9374 3856 9354 3851 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0405Z 239DEG 30KT 3858 9402

CDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

KSZ060-030545-
LINN KS-
1201 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1159 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINCAID...OR 15 MILES WEST OF MOUND
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MOUND CITY...BLUE MOUND AND PRESCOTT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3804 9508 3825 9508 3833 9478 3804 9468
      3803 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 253DEG 24KT 3812 9509

CDB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1252 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             3 S PARKER              38.29N 94.99W
04/02/2014  E2.75 INCH       LINN               KS   STORM CHASER

            RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1253 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GARDEN CITY             38.56N 94.19W
04/03/2014                   CASS               MO   PUBLIC

            YARD AND STREET UNDER WATER

&&

LAFLIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
115 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

MOZ053-030645-
BATES MO-
115 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BATES COUNTY UNTIL
145 AM CDT...

AT 110 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF PLEASANTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WHICH MAY
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  AMORET...ADRIAN AND PASSAIC.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3819 9461 3828 9461 3831 9461 3846 9428
      3831 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 238DEG 27KT 3827 9454

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