Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
930 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 930 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

Strong convection over eastern KS is starting to get a boost from a
developing low-level jet which is maintaining and even increasing the
intensity of these storms even though they are crossing the warm
front and becoming elevated in nature. Elevated nature of these
storms will keep the main threats confined to large hail and heavy
rainfall, and some hail in the stronger storms could approach golf
ball size especially across Linn/Miami/Bates Counties.

Strengthening low level jet will push the focus for thunderstorm
activity closer to I-70 after midnight. MUCAPE and deep-layer shear
values near the I-70 corridor will be comparable to the current
environment over east central KS so elevated severe hail storms will
remain a threat as storms drift northward into the KC and Sedalia
between 06Z and 09Z. Bigger concern may be flooding as these storms will
have the potential to produce 1"-2" of rain near and just south of
the I-70 corridor...the same area which received similar amounts last
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

As of early afternoon, the majority of showers have exited the
forecast area, with only isolated showers or light drizzle present.
Visible satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across the
CWA. Retreating southern periphery of clouds have been noted north
of the warm front over SE KS into SW MO as of the past couple hours.
The warm front, analyzed from surface observations, radar fine
line, and cumulus field, currently stretches from Ponca City, OK to
Parsons, KS to just south of Springfield, MO. Eastern extent of this
boundary has experienced reinforced cold air from earlier and
ongoing weak convection, and even a slight southward jog of the
boundary near SGF.

Forecast concerns first hinge on potential for convection this
evening and overnight. Convective-resolving models (HRRR, EAX 4-km
WRF, LSX 12-km WRF, NAM NCEP) have shown similar outputs to
convective behavior and warm frontal position during the next 6-12
hours. Models have been very persistent in first developing
convection along the warm front in SE KS between 22-01Z. There
remains some uncertainty to how far north the warm front will reach
this evening. High-resolution model guidance places the boundary
within the southern two-tiers of counties in the CWA (Mound City to
Clinton) by early evening, but some of this northern extent may be
limited by the recent reinforcement of cooler air from showers just
north of the boundary along I-44. Nevertheless, expect the boundary
to be in/just south of the CWA by early/mid evening. Additional
convection is expected to develop along the warm front this evening,
and with a favorable environment for well-organized convection
including supercells, with large hail to golfball-sized and damaging
wind gusts possible with these storms that remain along and just
south of the warm front. In addition, with the enhanced low-level
shear near/along the boundary, the potential for tornadoes will also
be possible. To the north of the boundary, additional convection will
develop between 02-05Z over much of the forecast area. Some of these
storms, especially south of Highway 36, will have a favorable
environment with ample elevated instability and wind shear to support
storms capable of producing severe hail. The highest probability of
these elevated storms producing severe weather will be between 02-08Z
in the CWA. Will also have to monitor any additional convection along
the warm front as it lifts northward overnight and whether the lowest
layer of the atmosphere cools and decouples. Lastly, areas along and
south of Interstate 70 received the bulk of rain this morning, with
precipitation totals exceeding one inch in many areas. With
additional moderate to heavy rainfall expected in some of these
already saturated areas tonight and Thursday, will issue a flash
flood watch for areas along Interstate 70 to account for the
potential for flash flooding.

A brief lull in the activity is anticipated during the mid morning
hours as convection moves out of the CWA. A surface low and an
accompanying cold front will move through the forecast area during
the afternoon hours. Assuming the atmosphere can recover from
earlier convection, strong dynamics/forcing should lead to another
round of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Storm mode remains in
question depending on the available instability and strong forcing,
but a brief period of discrete convection followed by an evolution
into a squall line is currently anticipated. Severe weather will be
possible, especially across the southeastern half of the CWA.
Additional details will be resolved following the convective
evolution from tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

As the departing surface low continues to wrap up and lifts off to
the northeast, unseasonably cold air will filter southward into the
forecast area on Friday into Friday night. Some of the wrap-around
precipitation may brush the northern edge of the forecast area,
possibly falling in the form of light snow across our northern tier
of counties, and a rain/snow mix a little further to the south. No
snow accumulation is expected, and very little precipitation is
possible. Highs on Friday will reach only into the 40s to perhaps
around 50 degrees, and below freezing temperatures are expected on
Friday night.

Another deepening longwave trough will head eastward across the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend, entrenching
the forecast area in west to southwest flow once again. However; a
lingering surface boundary across the southeastern U.S. and the
southern extent of the upper trough should keep any significant
precipitation south of the forecast area. On and off chances for
light rain showers are present Sunday through Tuesday, then cooler
and drier northwest flow will filter into the area again by midweek
as the upper trough pushes eastward. High temperatures this weekend
will be tempered by cloud cover and possible rain showers, and
should settle near or slightly below normal. By middle next week,
highs are more likely to remain a touch below normal as northwest
flow takes over.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

Watching closely thunderstorms developing near CNU as they track
northeast into western MO. Latest short term guidance suggests these
should stay mainly south of the KC area for several
hours...eventually reaching IXD/OJC late this evening, toward MCI
near or shortly after midnight and into the STJ-IRK corridor before
sunrise. Before storms move in, widespread low clouds will remain in
place near and north of the MO River and may even lower a bit after
dark bringing ceiling close to airfield minimums for some airports.
Additional storms are possible Thurs morning before a front moves
through during the afternoon but timing this activity is difficult.
Therefore kept a vague VCTS through this period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR KSZ057-105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR MOZ037>040-
     043>046.

&&

MESOSCALE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             LINWOOD                 39.00N 95.03W
04/02/2014  E1.00 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LAFLIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1104 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

MOZ044-054-030445-
HENRY MO-JOHNSON MO-
1104 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSON AND NORTHWESTERN HENRY
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1103 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF CREIGHTON...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
GARDEN CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WARRENSBURG...CHILHOWEE...LEETON...BLAIRSTOWN...POST OAK AND
  CENTERVIEW.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3852 9406 3857 9406 3857 9407 3863 9407
      3886 9374 3856 9354 3851 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0405Z 239DEG 30KT 3858 9402

CDB