Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Kansas City, MO

074 
WWUS53 KEAX 040658
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
158 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

MOC121-040708-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-140604T0700Z/
MACON MO-
158 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 200 AM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3961 9262 3972 9248 3996 9236 3996 9229
      3961 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 0658Z 278DEG 42KT 3996 9201 3978 9197
          3962 9218

$$

CDB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1210 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

Further updates to the forecast for a new severe watch box. The
veering low level jet will continue to interact with the cold pool
being put down by the thunderstorms extending across southeast
Nebraska through northern Missouri. This is expected to maintain
storms along the instability gradient allowing the storms to settle
farther south into west central and central Missouri. Character of
the storms as they settle into west central and central Missouri
should be dominated by large hail and the potential for damaging
winds, but these storms will also include torrential rain. For this
reason have also expanded the flash flood watch to mirror the
existing tornado and severe thunderstorm watches.

UPDATE Issued at 1029 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Based on rainfall rates observed with the storms in far northern
Missouri, have opted to expand the flash flood watch to include all
the counties that tornado watch 210 include. This includes the KC
metro. Rainfall rates of two inches per hour, and some higher, will
be likely with the storms that occur late tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Tornado watch 210 has been expanded south from its original coverage
area based on storm motion associated with the activity currently in
southeast Nebraska. The storms are beginning to turn more southeast
as the low level jet begins to veer this evening. Main threat with
the storms is going to be large hail, damaging winds and torrential
rain. Tornadoes can't be ruled out, but they are not the primary
threat at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Significant severe episode well underway although the vast majority
of the CWA is dry and will remain so until around sunset when the
upstream MCS/eventual Derecho presses into northern MO. Northern MO
remains under the highest threat for both severe storms as well as
flooding type rainfall. This due to the location of a nearly
stationary front draped across far northern MO and is depicted by
change in character of the cu field and surface obs. Small cluster
of severe storms tracking along the MO/IA border is being enhanced
by strong 0-6km shear of 50-65kts while the 0-1km shear around 20kts
is likely just not strong enough to support for tornadic activity.
However, these values will increase as evening approaches so any
additional storms which form ahead of the approaching MCS will have
a greater chance to spawn tornadoes. A look at the STJ hodograph for
this evening shows why. Impressive as is the MUCAPES of
3000-4000J/kg.

12Z ECMWF and HRRR appear to have best fit of evolution of the large
MCS and backbuilding convection now underway across northern NE.
Current radar trends and HRRR output surge the MCS southeast through
the north central and northeast CWA this evening while the
backbuilding convection over northern NE slides through northwest MO
and northeast KS with possibilities of reaching the KC Metro after
midnight. Current Flash Flood watch over northern MO looks on track.

Convection will finally exit the eastern CWA during the per-dawn
hours of Wednesday morning. A post-frontal cold front will trail and
eventually sweep through the CWA on Wednesday. The cold air
advection will lag allowing favorable mixing of the elevated warm layer
to mix down resulting in another very warm day. Could see highs
around 90 across the far southern CWA. Will keep slight chance PoPs
across this area as peak heating and some convergence along the
front could form isolated convection.

This front is not expected to move too far south of the CWA with the
very moist and unstable airmass poised to the south of the frontal
boundary. Models embed a number of weak shortwave troughs within
moderately strong westerlies crossing the Central Rockies and Central
Plains Wednesday night through Thursday night. In fact this pattern will
continue into the weekend. Elevated convection is the end result as
these shortwaves lift the unstable air above the boundary and
generate scattered convection. Could see a couple additional rounds of
convection. Temperatures will likely be a tad below average as we'll
be under easterly flow from high pressure.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A quasi-zonal pattern will remain quite active through the end of
the extended forecast period. A number of shortwave troughs will
translate through the flow and will bring a few chances for heavy
rainfall through the beginning of the weekend. One round of precip will
develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday morning. Another
convective complex will develop Friday and continue into Saturday
with the potential for more heavy rainfall as models forecasting
precipitable water values of 1 to over 2 inches across the general region
With the Gulf wide open, do not see any issues with moisture return
during this period, however, exact timing of these systems still
remains in question.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Tricky TAF period with ongoing convection across NE, IA, and northern
MO which is progged by the hi-res HRRR model to drop southeastward
across NW Missouri down through east-central Missouri. This convection
appears to be following a warm frontal boundary. Isolated convection
developing near the terminals is currently moving northeastward
towards this front. As the cold pool continues to strengthen along
this warm front, the front may begin to sag southward and allow the
southwest end of the convective complex to near the terminals.
Confidence is low on how far south this complex will extend, thus
will monitor trends of the complex and amend as necessary. For now
have left mention of VCTS for the terminals for isolated activity.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ025-102>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ031>033-
     038>040-043>046-054.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>030-037.

&&

UPDATE...Cutter
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...PMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-050000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
657 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA...IOWA...AND
MISSOURI THIS EVENING. ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES...AS WELL AS A
FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1248 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 AM     TSTM WND GST     HOLT                    39.45N 94.34W
06/04/2014  E60 MPH          CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1258 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 AM     HEAVY RAIN       AGENCY                  39.64N 94.74W
06/04/2014  M3.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 3 INCHES IN 45 MINUTES

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
101 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N DENTON              39.77N 95.26W
06/04/2014                   DONIPHAN           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RUNNING ACROSS 180TH ROAD AND HIGHWAY 120...ON
            170TH ROAD AND ASH POINT...AND HIGHWAY 20 WEST OF HIGHWAY
            7.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
112 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ST. JOSEPH              39.77N 94.85W
06/04/2014                   BUCHANAN           MO   911 CALL CENTER

            VEHICLES STRANDED AT 6TH AND ATCHISON...AND 32ND AND
            MESSANIE IN ST JOSEPH. WATER UP TO 3 FEET HIGH AT THESE
            INTERSECTIONS.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
115 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. JOSEPH              39.77N 94.85W
06/03/2014                   BUCHANAN           MO   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING THE INTERSECTION OF 7TH AND
            MCDONALD IN ST JOSEPH.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
130 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DEARBORN                39.52N 94.77W
06/04/2014                   PLATTE             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGE

&&

ADOLPHSON