River Flood Warning 14, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Tornado watch 210 has been expanded south from its original coverage
area based on storm motion associated with the activity currently in
southeast Nebraska. The storms are beginning to turn more southeast
as the low level jet begins to veer this evening. Main threat with
the storms is going to be large hail, damaging winds and torrential
rain. Tornadoes can't be ruled out, but they are not the primary
threat at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Significant severe episode well underway although the vast majority
of the CWA is dry and will remain so until around sunset when the
upstream MCS/eventual Derecho presses into northern MO. Northern MO
remains under the highest threat for both severe storms as well as
flooding type rainfall. This due to the location of a nearly
stationary front draped across far northern MO and is depicted by
change in character of the cu field and surface obs. Small cluster
of severe storms tracking along the MO/IA border is being enhanced
by strong 0-6km shear of 50-65kts while the 0-1km shear around 20kts
is likely just not strong enough to support for tornadic activity.
However, these values will increase as evening approaches so any
additional storms which form ahead of the approaching MCS will have
a greater chance to spawn tornadoes. A look at the STJ hodograph for
this evening shows why. Impressive as is the MUCAPES of
3000-4000J/kg.

12Z ECMWF and HRRR appear to have best fit of evolution of the large
MCS and backbuilding convection now underway across northern NE.
Current radar trends and HRRR output surge the MCS southeast through
the north central and northeast CWA this evening while the
backbuilding convection over northern NE slides through northwest MO
and northeast KS with possibilities of reaching the KC Metro after
midnight. Current Flash Flood watch over northern MO looks on track.

Convection will finally exit the eastern CWA during the per-dawn
hours of Wednesday morning. A post-frontal cold front will trail and
eventually sweep through the CWA on Wednesday. The cold air
advection will lag allowing favorable mixing of the elevated warm layer
to mix down resulting in another very warm day. Could see highs
around 90 across the far southern CWA. Will keep slight chance PoPs
across this area as peak heating and some convergence along the
front could form isolated convection.

This front is not expected to move too far south of the CWA with the
very moist and unstable airmass poised to the south of the frontal
boundary. Models embed a number of weak shortwave troughs within
moderately strong westerlies crossing the Central Rockies and Central
Plains Wednesday night through Thursday night. In fact this pattern will
continue into the weekend. Elevated convection is the end result as
these shortwaves lift the unstable air above the boundary and
generate scattered convection. Could see a couple additional rounds of
convection. Temperatures will likely be a tad below average as we'll
be under easterly flow from high pressure.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A quasi-zonal pattern will remain quite active through the end of
the extended forecast period. A number of shortwave troughs will
translate through the flow and will bring a few chances for heavy
rainfall through the beginning of the weekend. One round of precip will
develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Friday morning. Another
convective complex will develop Friday and continue into Saturday
with the potential for more heavy rainfall as models forecasting
precipitable water values of 1 to over 2 inches across the general region
With the Gulf wide open, do not see any issues with moisture return
during this period, however, exact timing of these systems still
remains in question.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

Tricky TAF period with ongoing convection across NE, IA, and northern
MO which is progged by the hi-res HRRR model to drop southeastward
across NW Missouri down through east-central Missouri. This convection
appears to be following a warm frontal boundary. Isolated convection
developing near the terminals is currently moving northeastward
towards this front. As the cold pool continues to strengthen along
this warm front, the front may begin to sag southward and allow the
southwest end of the convective complex to near the terminals.
Confidence is low on how far south this complex will extend, thus
will monitor trends of the complex and amend as necessary. For now
have left mention of VCTS for the terminals for isolated activity.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ001>008-
     015>017.

&&

UPDATE...Cutter
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...PMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-050000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
657 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA...IOWA...AND
MISSOURI THIS EVENING. ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES...AS WELL AS A
FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
924 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             5 NNE WATSON            40.55N 95.59W
06/03/2014  M1.00 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   STORM CHASER

            ALSO WINDS TO 60 MPH

0914 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N WATSON              40.54N 95.62W
06/03/2014  E70 MPH          ATCHISON           MO   STORM CHASER

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
927 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KIRKSVILLE              40.20N 92.58W
06/03/2014                   ADAIR              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF LOT OF STREETS IN KIRKSVILLE WITH OVER 1 FOOT
            OF WATER ON THEM.

&&

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
931 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     HAIL             7 N ROCKPORT            40.52N 95.52W
06/03/2014  E1.75 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA FACEBOOK

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             1 N TARKIO              40.46N 95.38W
06/03/2014  M1.50 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
948 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND GST     N LA PLATA              40.03N 92.49W
06/03/2014  E70 MPH          MACON              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY TREE DAMAGE ALSO REPORTED

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
950 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     TSTM WND GST     KIRKSVILLE              40.20N 92.58W
06/03/2014  M79 MPH          ADAIR              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAILEY