River Flood Warning 51, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

Little change needed to the going forecast as a well advertised
closed upper level low is deepening as it moves southeastward into
northern OK this afternoon. A vort lobe rounding this low has moved
into the area this afternoon bringing light showers to the area
along and south of the I-70 corridor. Later this afternoon/evening a
second and stronger vort lobe will bring more widespread rain
spreading across the area from southwest to northeast. This upper
level low will move across northern OK tonight and the vort lobe
will remain anchored over the area pivoting and orienting itself
southwest to northeast across the area. This will keep precipitation
chances continuing through Monday night and into Tuesday as the
upper level low moves across southern MO. Temperatures will be cool
on Tuesday  with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

By Tuesday night, the upper low moves to eastern Missouri and the
vort lobe over the area finally weakens and shifts eastward as
surface high pressure build into the area. Rain will end from west
to east on Tuesday night. Surface high pressure will remain in
control through Wednesday helping to dry out conditions. Height
rises will help afternoon highs on Wednesday return to near normal
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

Large upper level trough will continue to move off to the Northeast
into the Ohio River Valley as slight upper level ridging builds into
the region. Near zonal flow will redevelop behind this ridging as a
shortwave trough tracks across the Northern Plains. A cold front
associated with this northern trough will approach the region late
Wed night and will move across the CWA by Thurs morning. With
precipitable water values progged to be in the range of 1.5 to 2
inches, flooding will once again become a concern through the day.
Subsidence behind this system will keep temperatures cooler across
the region on Thurs and will gradually warm back into the 80s by Sat.
This pattern will continue with shortwave ridging building back in
on Sat with another shortwave trough moving into the Northern
Plains. Saturday's system will also push a cold front towards and
through the CWA by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

Best area of rainfall has contracted a bit into a narrow corridor of
moderate rain, generally south of KSTJ and KMCI. This will leave
KMKC on the far northern edge through the night. Expect the corridor
of rain to pivot northward overnight, putting KMCI back into the rain
for the early to middle morning hours on Tuesday. Expect off and on
rain at the terminals through mid morning with CIGs/VIS generally
remaining in the MVFR range until the rain gradually tapers off late
Tuesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Leighton

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
648 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-110000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
648 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
 MISSOURI RIVER. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
 THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NO
 ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED... BUT HEAVY RAIN COULD
 EXACERBATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF