River Flood Warning 47, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
732 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

Little change needed to the going forecast as a well advertised
closed upper level low is deepening as it moves southeastward into
northern OK this afternoon. A vort lobe rounding this low has moved
into the area this afternoon bringing light showers to the area
along and south of the I-70 corridor. Later this afternoon/evening a
second and stronger vort lobe will bring more widespread rain
spreading across the area from southwest to northeast. This upper
level low will move across northern OK tonight and the vort lobe
will remain anchored over the area pivoting and orienting itself
southwest to northeast across the area. This will keep precipitation
chances continuing through Monday night and into Tuesday as the
upper level low moves across southern MO. Temperatures will be cool
on Tuesday  with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

By Tuesday night, the upper low moves to eastern Missouri and the
vort lobe over the area finally weakens and shifts eastward as
surface high pressure build into the area. Rain will end from west
to east on Tuesday night. Surface high pressure will remain in
control through Wednesday helping to dry out conditions. Height
rises will help afternoon highs on Wednesday return to near normal
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

Large upper level trough will continue to move off to the Northeast
into the Ohio River Valley as slight upper level ridging builds into
the region. Near zonal flow will redevelop behind this ridging as a
shortwave trough tracks across the Northern Plains. A cold front
associated with this northern trough will approach the region late
Wed night and will move across the CWA by Thurs morning. With
precipitable water values progged to be in the range of 1.5 to 2
inches, flooding will once again become a concern through the day.
Subsidence behind this system will keep temperatures cooler across
the region on Thurs and will gradually warm back into the 80s by Sat.
This pattern will continue with shortwave ridging building back in
on Sat with another shortwave trough moving into the Northern
Plains. Saturday's system will also push a cold front towards and
through the CWA by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 725 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

Steady moderate rain will continue through the next several hours at
the KC Terminals. KSTJ will likely see some off and on rain, however
should remain north of the more steady, long-lasting rain showers.
Expect VIS/CIG to come down to IFR during several instances over the
next several hours. Steady light to moderate rain should last through
the overnight hours before gradually tapering off late Tuesday
morning or early Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Leighton

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
648 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-110000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
648 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
 MISSOURI RIVER. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
 THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NO
 ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED... BUT HEAVY RAIN COULD
 EXACERBATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF