Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Dodge City, KS

490 
WWUS53 KDDC 280313
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1013 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

KSC171-280330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-140628T0330Z/
SCOTT KS-
1013 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 1012 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MARIENTHAL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCOTT STATE LAKE.

LAT...LON 3870 10110 3870 10072 3848 10106 3852 10114
      3870 10114 3871 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 247DEG 30KT 3861 10112

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
613 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

Later afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. The best
chance for storms will be near the I70 corridor where capping is
weaker and there is better moisture convergence.
Thermodynamically, the setup is impressive with 3500 J/kg of
SBCAPE, 8.5 C/KM lapse rates, and decent boundary layer dewpoints.
A few problems with today's setup though. All the models show
backing upper level winds and only about 35 kt of 0-EL shear. This
suggests that storm mode tonight will likely be on the HP side.
PWATs are forecast to be in the 1.5" range, which is well above
normal. This also suggests storms with high precipitation
efficiency. Feel the most discrete storms will be up in GLD's area,
where mean flow and boundary layer winds are more orthogonal.
There could be an isolated tornado up north, as the HRRR is
indicating some updraft helicity. In addition, low level
directional and speed shear is not that bad. Given the
aforementioned upper level shear, it won't take long through before
you get cold pools and resultant upscale growth, so that should
cut down on the tornado chances. Precip will exit the area
late tonight. Additional MCS activity is possible tomorrow
afternoon, with better moisture convergence and lift along and
east of Highway 283.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

The main upper jet and storm track shifts north on Sunday then a
northern branch upper trough swings across the Northern and Central
Plains late Monday and Monday night with a chance for thunderstorms.
Unsettled weather continues in back of the upper trough into
Thursday with northwest flow aloft and more chances for showers and
thunderstorms. By Friday and upper level ridge is forecast with dry
weather for a change.

At the surface, a deepening trough of low pressure in the Rockies
will give strong southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph on Sunday, with a
cold front moving across western Kansas late Monday and winds
shifting to the north and gusty. Cooler temps will follow the
front as high pressure builds into the Plains with weaker winds
into mid next week.

Lows will be mild in the 60s and 70s, with highs in the 90s Sunday
and Monday, cooling into the 80s Tuesday into Thursday behind the cold
front, then back into the 90s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

VFR conditions will prevail over the 3 taf sites, with the
exception of KHYS, which will have MVFR cigs. A strong upper level
wave will bring cold air over the region, and destabilize the
atmosphere this evening. A line of strong storms will move east
through western Kansas this evening, bringing thunderstorms near
each Taf site for 2 to 3 hours. Vsbys could go down in any
downpour, but for now, doubt any one Taf site will see the
stronger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  89  67  95 /  40  20  10  10
GCK  65  89  66  97 /  60  10  10  10
EHA  63  91  63 101 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  66  92  67  99 /  50  10  10   0
HYS  66  87  67  95 /  70  30  10  10
P28  69  88  70  94 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burke

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
444 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-282145-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
444 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 /344 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL
SIZE, DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES, WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY 5 TO 6 PM CDT. THEY
WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO NEAR A SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY AND A
LIBERAL LINE BY AROUND 7 TO 9 PM CDT, THEN TO NEAR WAKEENEY, DODGE
CITY, AND ASHLAND BY AROUND 8 TO 10 PM CDT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT, FARTHER EAST INTO THE HAYS AREA AND DOWN TO MEDICINE
LODGE, AND THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE NOT AS GREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A HAIL
THREAT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

06

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
943 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

KSZ043-044-280330-
LANE-SCOTT-
943 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SCOTT AND NORTHWESTERN
LANE COUNTIES...

AT 941 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MODOC...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3868 10055 3843 10113 3844 10114 3868 10114
      3871 10110 3871 10057
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 211DEG 24KT 3856 10099

FINCH