Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Dodge City, KS

638 
WWUS53 KDDC 120353
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1053 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

KSC007-057-097-145-151-185-120415-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-140612T0415Z/
STAFFORD KS-PRATT KS-PAWNEE KS-KIOWA KS-BARBER KS-FORD KS-
1053 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
FORD...NORTHERN BARBER...KIOWA...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE...PRATT AND
STAFFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1052 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAYMOND TO PRESTON TO CROFT...AND
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COATS...NEOLA...ZENITH...SUN CITY...CAIRO...SAWYER...LAKE CITY...
ISABEL AND MEDICINE LODGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3724 9844 3738 9901 3739 9901 3742 9920
      3763 9969 3774 9906 3774 9901 3825 9903
      3827 9889 3826 9847 3779 9847 3739 9846
      3739 9845
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 279DEG 41KT 3818 9844 3771 9857
          3742 9896

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
639 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

A surface cold front extended from eastern South Dakota to near
Sidney, Nebraska slowly moving south through the Northern High
Plains. An are of relative low pressure was developing over
southeast Colorado with an attendant inverted surface trough
extending northward toward the cold front. Regional WSR88D composite
reflectivity was already showing clusters of surface based
thunderstorms developing off the Palmer Divide as well as the Sangre
de Cristo regions in Colorado. Ahead of the frontal boundary,
southerly winds were in place with surface dew points in the upper
50s to around 60 degrees across the eastern Counties. Drier air
existed west of Highway 83 where dew points were in the mid 40s but
increasing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several
runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing
early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central
Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer
precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with
SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in
early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000
J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with
ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a
high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our
northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county
through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly
develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection
eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind
the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from
very heavy rainfall. This morning's flash flood guidance for 3 hours
was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by
a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of
the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the
last week or more.

Beyond this evening's high probability convection episode, north
surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is
forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and
probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas
into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions
ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with highs
struggling through the 70s in most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening bringing MVFR
conditions to the terminals. Otherwise expected increasing mid
level clouds as the evening progresses with mostly cloudy skies
overnight. Clear skies are then expected by sunrise tomorrow
morning. Winds will generally be from the south over the next
couple of hours shifting to more of a northerly direction behind a
strong cold front. Breezy conditions are expected overnight with
sustained winds around 20 knots with gusts around 30 knots at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  78  55  83 /  90  10   0   0
GCK  57  77  55  85 /  60  10   0  10
EHA  58  78  58  88 /  40  10   0  10
LBL  58  79  57  87 /  60  10   0   0
HYS  58  77  53  83 /  90  10   0   0
P28  64  80  57  84 /  90  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning
FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066-079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-121000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
356 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 /256 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE, DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH
MESSAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT DETAILS ABOUT
LOCATION AND INTENSITY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED MAINLY THIS EVENING FOR HAIL, HIGH
WIND AND HEAVY RAIN REPORTS.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
931 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND GST     JETMORE                 38.08N 99.89W
06/11/2014  E60 MPH          HODGEMAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS ESTIMATED GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH ON EAST SIDE OF
            JETMORE.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
932 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ELLIS                   38.94N 99.56W
06/11/2014                   ELLIS              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS NUMEROUS STREETS FLOODED FROM
            CURB TO CURB AS WELL AS OVER COUNTY ROADS IN ELLIS
            COUNTY.

&&

WHOVORKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
955 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 NNW BURDETT          38.33N 99.60W
06/11/2014  E60 MPH          NESS               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WHOVORKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
959 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 PM     TSTM WND GST     NESS CITY               38.45N 99.91W
06/11/2014  E60 MPH          NESS               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WHOVORKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1001 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GARDEN CITY             37.98N 100.86W
06/11/2014  E0 MPH           FINNEY             KS   AWOS

            58 KNOTS OR 66 MPH WAS REPORTED BY THE ASOS AT THE GARDEN
            CITY AIRPORT.

&&

WHOVORKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1006 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 S ROZEL               38.09N 99.42W
06/11/2014  E60 MPH          PAWNEE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S ROZEL               38.09N 99.42W
06/11/2014  E60 MPH          PAWNEE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WHOVORKA