Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Dodge City, KS

331 
WWUS53 KDDC 120110
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
810 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

KSC171-120145-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-140612T0145Z/
SCOTT KS-
810 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SCOTT COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 808 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF SCOTT STATE LAKE TO GRIGSTON TO 10
MILES EAST OF FRIEND...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.

HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT
         CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES.
         EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRIGSTON AND MANNING.

THERE WAS A REPORT OF SOME STRUCTURE DAMAGE NORTH OF SCOTT CITY...
HOWEVER THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE
MORE INFORMATION ON THIS REPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10069 3827 10069 3827 10113 3869 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 257DEG 37KT 3860 10086 3843 10075
          3827 10071

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...80MPH

$$

UMSCHEID

400 
WWUS53 KDDC 120140
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
840 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

KSC171-120150-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-140612T0145Z/
SCOTT KS-
840 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SCOTT COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
845 PM CDT/745 PM MDT/...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3869 10069 3827 10069 3827 10113 3869 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 257DEG 37KT 3867 10047 3850 10037
          3834 10033

$$

UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
639 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

A surface cold front extended from eastern South Dakota to near
Sidney, Nebraska slowly moving south through the Northern High
Plains. An are of relative low pressure was developing over
southeast Colorado with an attendant inverted surface trough
extending northward toward the cold front. Regional WSR88D composite
reflectivity was already showing clusters of surface based
thunderstorms developing off the Palmer Divide as well as the Sangre
de Cristo regions in Colorado. Ahead of the frontal boundary,
southerly winds were in place with surface dew points in the upper
50s to around 60 degrees across the eastern Counties. Drier air
existed west of Highway 83 where dew points were in the mid 40s but
increasing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several
runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing
early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central
Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer
precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with
SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in
early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000
J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with
ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a
high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our
northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county
through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly
develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection
eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind
the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from
very heavy rainfall. This morning's flash flood guidance for 3 hours
was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by
a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of
the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the
last week or more.

Beyond this evening's high probability convection episode, north
surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is
forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and
probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas
into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions
ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with highs
struggling through the 70s in most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening bringing MVFR
conditions to the terminals. Otherwise expected increasing mid
level clouds as the evening progresses with mostly cloudy skies
overnight. Clear skies are then expected by sunrise tomorrow
morning. Winds will generally be from the south over the next
couple of hours shifting to more of a northerly direction behind a
strong cold front. Breezy conditions are expected overnight with
sustained winds around 20 knots with gusts around 30 knots at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  78  55  83 /  90  10   0   0
GCK  57  77  55  85 /  60  10   0  10
EHA  58  78  58  88 /  40  10   0  10
LBL  58  79  57  87 /  60  10   0   0
HYS  58  77  53  83 /  90  10   0   0
P28  64  80  57  84 /  90  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning
FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066-079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-121000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
356 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014 /256 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE, DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH
MESSAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT DETAILS ABOUT
LOCATION AND INTENSITY ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED MAINLY THIS EVENING FOR HAIL, HIGH
WIND AND HEAVY RAIN REPORTS.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
706 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

KSZ030-031-120100-
ELLIS-TREGO-
706 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TREGO AND WESTERN ELLIS
COUNTIES...

AT 703 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR CEDAR BLUFF...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN EASTERN TREGO AND WESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF CEDAR BLUFF...RIGA...ELLIS AND YOCEMENTO...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3912 9979 3912 9953 3871 9928 3878 9983
      3891 9986
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 247DEG 14KT 3884 9975

UMSCHEID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
723 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     HAIL             6 S OGALLAH             38.90N 99.73W
06/11/2014  E0.88 INCH       TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

&&

WHOVORKA