Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH HAD BEEN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. STRONGEST CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME IS IN SHERIDAN AND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS
ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND QUITE A BIT
OF LIGHTNING...BUT THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH SOME STABILIZATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST WY
HAS KEPT THE STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CARVING THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE HEATING STILL CONTINUING IN SOME AREAS
WILL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE IN MULTIPLE AREAS. ALSO DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA SUPPORTING FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS WELL. WITH JET ENERGY
CONTINUING TO IMPROVE LATE INTO THE EVENING AND AMONG THE LONGEST
DAYLIGHT DAYS IN THE YEAR SHOULD KEEP SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GOING
UNTIL 9 PM OR LATER.

TROUGHINESS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY FOR A COOLER DAY BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AROUND BUT LESS INTENSE. TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED COOLER WEATHER BUT MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DEPLETED. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART FOR NEXT
WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY RESULTING IN A CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF MONTANA. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TOWARD THE DAKOTA
BORDERS. AN INSTABILITY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE DRY GIVEN THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FOR MONDAY AND
STRENGTHENS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOST LIKELY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER WITH
READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A RETURNED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST
OF KBIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR TO
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR KSHR...
KMLS AND KBHK. ACTIVITY TO THE WEST WILL BE WEAKER AND VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KLVM AND KBIL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
OBSCURED...AND CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
IN OUR EAST WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED. EXPECT MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT
WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/070 053/076 052/077 053/079 053/081 056/086 059/091
    45/T    34/T    31/B    11/N    11/U    12/T    21/U
LVM 050/067 046/070 045/073 045/075 045/079 049/085 051/085
    56/T    44/T    31/B    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 057/073 053/078 053/078 053/080 052/081 055/088 058/094
    54/T    33/T    31/B    11/N    10/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 061/075 056/078 055/078 055/079 055/081 056/086 060/092
    53/T    33/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 059/073 054/077 054/078 054/078 053/081 056/087 059/093
    74/T    33/T    31/B    11/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 061/074 054/075 054/076 054/077 052/078 053/081 057/087
    65/T    43/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 056/069 049/075 049/076 050/077 049/080 052/085 056/090
    65/T    33/T    21/U    11/N    11/U    12/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
914 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-280315-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
914 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT AREAS EAST OF
BILLINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
713 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

MTZ038-WYZ099-270200-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN MT-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS WY-
713 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 713 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF DECKER...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHERIDAN...
MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TONGUE RIVER RESERVOIR AND WYARNO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4483 10691 4519 10677 4517 10639 4477 10667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 200DEG 25KT 4488 10676

CHURCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
723 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

MTZ037-270200-
CARTER MT-
723 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 722 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF ALZADA TO
NEAR COLONY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALZADA AND ALBION.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 4499 10406 4500 10449 4514 10468 4538 10415
      4541 10404 4510 10403 4501 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 247DEG 29KT 4516 10444 4481 10411

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
740 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

WYZ098-099-270230-
SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS WY-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS WY-
740 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 738 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHERIDAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHERIDAN...BIG HORN...STORY...WYARNO AND BANNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4488 10696 4487 10654 4456 10659 4456 10704
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 212DEG 12KT 4468 10685

CHURCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
854 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

MTZ032-036-270345-
CUSTER MT-POWDER RIVER MT-
854 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 852 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 29 MILES NORTH OF BROADUS
TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF VOLBORG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STANDING WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LAND. HALF INCH HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VOLBORG AND COALWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4570 10531 4549 10591 4618 10581 4623 10502
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 224DEG 37KT 4587 10537 4567 10571

CHURCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
942 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

MTZ032-033-270445-
CUSTER MT-FALLON MT-
942 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 942 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BAKER TO 28 MILES
NORTHWEST OF EKALAKA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
AREA ROADWAYS AND LOW LAND AREAS. IN ADDITION...DIME SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAKER...PLEVNA...ISMAY...OLLIE...KNOWLTON...WESTMORE AND WILLARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4611 10451 4614 10453 4614 10493 4598 10493
      4591 10519 4654 10520 4657 10487 4661 10485
      4662 10474 4666 10473 4665 10461 4669 10460
      4667 10435 4665 10434 4664 10405 4624 10407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 185DEG 30KT 4636 10432 4607 10509

CHURCH