Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
330 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CARVING THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE HEATING STILL CONTINUING IN SOME AREAS
WILL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE EVENT WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE IN MULTIPLE AREAS. ALSO DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA SUPPORTING FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS WELL. WITH JET ENERGY
CONTINUING TO IMPROVE LATE INTO THE EVENING AND AMONG THE LONGEST
DAYLIGHT DAYS IN THE YEAR SHOULD KEEP SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GOING
UNTIL 9 PM OR LATER.

TROUGHINESS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY FOR A COOLER DAY BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE SHIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AROUND BUT LESS INTENSE. TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED COOLER WEATHER BUT MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DEPLETED. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART FOR NEXT
WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY RESULTING IN A CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF MONTANA. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TOWARD THE DAKOTA
BORDERS. AN INSTABILITY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE DRY GIVEN THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FOR MONDAY AND
STRENGTHENS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOST LIKELY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER WITH
READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A RETURNED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE FROM KBIL EASTWARD WITH
LARGE HAIL AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. EXPECT MVFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS WITH LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/070 053/076 052/077 053/079 053/081 056/086 059/091
    75/T    34/T    31/B    11/N    11/U    12/T    21/U
LVM 050/067 046/070 045/073 045/075 045/079 049/085 051/085
    76/T    44/T    31/B    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 057/073 053/078 053/078 053/080 052/081 055/088 058/094
    74/T    33/T    31/B    11/N    10/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 061/075 056/078 055/078 055/079 055/081 056/086 060/092
    83/T    33/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 059/073 054/077 054/078 054/078 053/081 056/087 059/093
    74/T    33/T    31/B    11/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 061/074 054/075 054/076 054/077 052/078 053/081 057/087
    75/T    43/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 056/069 049/075 049/076 050/077 049/080 052/085 056/090
    65/T    33/T    21/U    11/N    11/U    12/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 29>33-35>38-57-58.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
355 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-271000-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
355 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION ON TODAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RYEGATE TO BILLINGS AND PRYOR. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
SOME STORMS IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD PLAN AHEAD AND HAVE A MEANS OF RECEIVING
WEATHER UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
713 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

MTZ038-WYZ099-270200-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN MT-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS WY-
713 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 713 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF DECKER...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHERIDAN...
MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TONGUE RIVER RESERVOIR AND WYARNO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4483 10691 4519 10677 4517 10639 4477 10667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 200DEG 25KT 4488 10676

CHURCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
723 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

MTZ037-270200-
CARTER MT-
723 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 722 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF ALZADA TO
NEAR COLONY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALZADA AND ALBION.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 4499 10406 4500 10449 4514 10468 4538 10415
      4541 10404 4510 10403 4501 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 247DEG 29KT 4516 10444 4481 10411

CJS