Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Birmingham, AL

284 
WWUS54 KBMX 210237
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
837 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ALC093-210300-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140221T0300Z/
MARION AL-
837 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARION COUNTY
UNTIL 900 PM CST...

AT 837 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HACKLEBURG TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HACKLEBURG TO HAMILTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HACKLEBURG...BRINN...LAKE BUTTAHATCHEE...TESSNER...PEARCES MILL...
  BEAR CREEK AND PINEY GROVE.

THIS INCLUDES...
US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 7 THROUGH 22...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3431 8764 3402 8764 3402 8799 3405 8799
      3407 8817 3417 8808 3432 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 269DEG 39KT 3433 8783 3422 8785
          3411 8794

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.

RIGHT NOW...THE ATMOSPHERE IS REALLY WELL MIXED AS THE SUN CAME OUT
FOR A FEW HOURS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE LOW 80S AT
SEVERAL SPOTS.  THIS WAS MAINLY FROM I65 WESTWARD.  AS SUCH THE
WINDS PICKED UP AND THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WAS ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...HENCE THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN ALABAMA
AND NEARLY ALL OF MISSISSIPPI.  THIS DOES CHANGE THINGS SLIGHTLY FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LCL HEIGHTS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. BUT
THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION LOWER AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENS AFTER SUNSET.  LOOKING AT THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...00Z...KJAN
HAS NOW ERODED THEIR CAP AT 650MB...BUT THEY DO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MIXED AT THE SURFACE AND THE LCL HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 1500M.
AGAIN...THIS WILL CHANGE AS DEWPOINTS COME UP OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 5
HOURS AS WE TRANSITION TO THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK WITH
TIME AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST.  STILL EXPECTING THAT A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
AROUND 03Z OUT OF CENTRAL MS ACROSS WESTERN AL.  THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A MORE EXPLOSIVE SITUATION AS WE NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
THIS WILL POSSIBLY OCCUR AS THE SQUALL LINE CROSSES INTO ALABAMA
COINCIDENT WITH THE PRESQUALL CELLS MERGE WITH THE LINE.  SPEAKING
OF WHICH...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD
OF THE LINE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.  RIGHT NOW THE CELLS ARE MOVING
INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS...SO
THEY SHOULD BEHAVE...FOR NOW.  I WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO WAY TO RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...INCLUDING PERHAPS A STRONGER ONE WITH THE UPDRAFT
POTENTIAL AND HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE PRESQUALL CELLS STAY ORGANIZED AS THE
SURFACE WINDS BACK AND THE 0 - 1 KM SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS PROGGED.  LAPSE RATES...DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
NOT AN OVERLY SHEARED TYPICAL WINTER TIME EVENT ALL SEEM EXTREMELY
THREATENING.

MAKE SURE YOU TAKE ALL WARNINGS SERIOUSLY...INCLUDING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS.  THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO OVER ACHIEVE
SO DONT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN OVERNIGHT AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.  IT COULD SAVE YOUR LIFE!

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE STILL BACK IN MS. SOME OF
THESE COULD MOVE ACROSS A FEW TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BRINGING BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH REDUCED VIS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20-25 MPH. IT APPEARS THAT
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH PRIOR TO THE SQUALL
LINE'S ARRIVAL. HAVE TRIED TO TIME OUT THE IMPACTS OF THE SQUALL
LINE AT EACH TERMINAL BASED ON THE CURRENT SPEED/MOTION. THESE TIMES
WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER THIS EVENING ONCE THE
LINE ENTERS THE AREA. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE LINE WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE LINE
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AND GUSTS SUBSIDING.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1126 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-211730-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1126 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA STARTING AS EARLY AS 6 PM TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...AND LASTING AS LATE AS 5 AM FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SEVERE WEATHER
RISK IS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE NORTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM SELMA...TO CLANTON...TO CENTRE. THE TORNADO THREAT
DECREASES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LINE OF
STORMS ARRIVE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...THAT COULD BRING DOWN WEAKENED TREES OR LIMBS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
812 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ALZ011-012-210300-
LAMAR AL-MARION AL-
812 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION AND NORTHERN LAMAR
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CST...

AT 810 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF RED BAY TO
TREMONT TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AMORY...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  HAMILTON...
  SULLIGENT...
  WINFIELD...
  DETROIT...
  WESTON...

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8819 3433 8817 3431 8764 3391 8764
      3392 8795 3380 8795 3380 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 273DEG 39KT 3434 8815 3419 8820
          3392 8838