Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
540 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL WITH A HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANSION INTO MADISON/ONEIDA AS PER
TRENDS. RADAR ESTIMATES AND SOME MEASUREMENTS INDICATE GREATER
THAN 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE HEAVIEST CELLS. 3.75 INCHES IN
MARCELLUS IN LESS THAN 90 MINUTES. SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
AND FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME WITH MANY REPORTS OF WATER OVER
ROADS /SOME IMPASSABLE AND CLOSED/...AND IN BASEMENTS.

415 PM UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED INTO CORTLAND-ONONDAGA AS WELL...WITH
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES ERUPTING NEW CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
IN TOMPKINS COUNTY...ITHACA AREA AT THIS POINT SEEMS THE HEAVIEST
HIT WITH THIS CURRENT EVENT...INCLUDING MANY REPORTS OF WATER
OVER ROADS AND WATER IN BASEMENTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 245 PM...UPR LVL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITTING AND SPINNING OVR WRN
PA. A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS RIDING UP
THRU CNTRL PA AS MOISTURE PIVOTS ARND UPR LOW. THIS WL BE SETTING
THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AND
HV EXPANDED FFA FURTHER TO THE EAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
JUST RECEIVED A REPORT FROM SCHUYLER COUNTY OF 1.21 INCHES OF RAIN
FALLING IN 22 MINUTES.

AS THUNDER DEVELOPS, AND CONVECTION IS STARTING TO SHOW CG'S WITHIN
THE LAST HR WITH MLCAPES HVG INCRSD TO BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG ACRS
NWRN AREAS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMNTS TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. UPR LVL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PULL EAST
INTO THE HUDSON VLY AFT 06Z. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BHND WV WL
RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS AFT THIS TIME PULLING EAST AND DIMINISHING
TO JUST ISOLD THRU 12Z.

SKIES EXPECTED TO RMN MOCLDY OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU AT LEAST MIDNIGHT,
BFR SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BHND TROF. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS UP ARND 60F
ALONG WITH A MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.

TOMORROW WL FEATURE A BREAK IN THE WX AS RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD
DRG THE DAY. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS WRN CATS THRU
MID-MRNG BUT EXPECT JUST A PCLDY DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN NR
NORMAL VALUES UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
TROUGHY PATTERN JUST WILL NOT LET GO. UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY WHILE SENDING MULTIPLE WAVES THROUGH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT. THUS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO FIRE UP BOTH DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO
THIS WEEKEND...AND THERE WILL BE MORE FLOW...THUS NOT EXPECTING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
ORGANIZED SEVERE NOT ANTICIPATED EITHER DAY. TUESDAY WILL BE
RATHER WARM /MAINLY LOW TO MID 80S/...BUT COOL AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD SEND MOST LOCATIONS INTO 70S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
155 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO OUR DAILY ROUNDS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY...DEPARTING
LARGE TROUGH MAY STILL MANAGE A LITTLE MINOR CONVECTION...OTHERWISE
LOOKING DRY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...TO RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE VALUES...AS 500MB HEIGHTS CREEP BACK UP DUE TO THE
RIDGING. FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING SHRA-TSRA IN PROGRESS...AND THAT IS
THE MAIN CONCERN...SEE TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS. THERE WILL NOT
BE A LOT OF LIGHTNING BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT THE
CELLS WILL BE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS WITH RESULTING
RESTRICTIONS. THIS IS BEING FORCED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH NOW LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN TO CENTRAL NY/PA. BEHIND
THAT WAVE LATER THIS EVENING...SHRA-TSRA WILL GO AWAY BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND...RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS. KELM PROBABLY WORSE
THAN IFR VIS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
/EXCEPT LOCALIZED GUSTS IN VICINITY OF TSRA/ THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AND CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

MON AFT-WED...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG EARLY
EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

THU-FRI...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE PREDAWN VALLEY FOG KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044-055.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

NYZ009-015>018-036-037-044-042315-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
701 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING.

NYZ022>025-045-046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-042315-
STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-
DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
701 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
524 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     FLOOD            ROMULUS                 42.75N  76.83W
08/03/2014                   SENECA             NY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SIX INCHES OF WATER IN BASEMENT ON ROUTE 89

&&

PN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     FLOOD            FAYETTE                 42.82N  76.80W
08/03/2014                   SENECA             NY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WATER IS ENTERING CHURCH

&&

PN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
719 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FAYETTE                 42.82N  76.80W
08/03/2014                   SENECA             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS FLOODING ISSUES INCLUDING WATER OVER ROADS AND
            WATER IN MANY BASEMENTS. WORST PROBLEMS IN CENTRAL PART
            OF THE COUNTY.

&&

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