Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF MONDAY MORNING. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL WITH A
HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
UPR LVL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITTING AND SPINNING OVR WRN PA. A STEADY
STREAM OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS RIDING UP THRU CNTRL PA
AS MOISTURE PIVOTS ARND UPR LOW. THIS WL BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AND HV EXPANDED FFA
FURTHER TO THE EAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. JUST RECEIVED A
REPORT FROM SCHUYLER COUNTY OF 1.21 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING IN 22
MINUTES.

AS THUNDER DEVELOPS, AND CONVECTION IS STARTING TO SHOW CG'S WITHIN
THE LAST HR WITH MLCAPES HVG INCRSD TO BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG ACRS
NWRN AREAS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMNTS TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. UPR LVL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY PULL EAST
INTO THE HUDSON VLY AFT 06Z. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BHND WV WL
RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS AFT THIS TIME PULLING EAST AND DIMINISHING
TO JUST ISOLD THRU 12Z.

SKIES EXPECTED TO RMN MOCLDY OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU AT LEAST MIDNIGHT,
BFR SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BHND TROF. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS UP ARND 60F
ALONG WITH A MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.

TOMORROW WL FEATURE A BREAK IN THE WX AS RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD
DRG THE DAY. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACRS WRN CATS THRU
MID-MRNG BUT EXPECT JUST A PCLDY DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN NR
NORMAL VALUES UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LOW SLOWLY FILLS AND LIFTS EAST TNGT ALLOWING FOR WEAK RDGG
ALOFT...AND A SMALL SFC HIPRES TO BLD IN. STILL...UPR HGTS WILL BE
BLO AVG AND THERE SHD BE AT LEAST A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS ON MON
WITH DIURNAL HTG. DRIER AIR MVE IN FOR TUE AS THE FCST AREA IS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER SFC LOW MVES UP THE EAST CST WHILE A WV
CUTS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. WRN WV APRCHS LATE ON TUE AND
AFTN SHRAS AND TRWS MAY BRK OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE PD.

AFTN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NRML DESPITE THE PCPN RISK WHILE OVRNGT
TEMPS REMAIN ABV NRML UNDER CLDS AND HIER LL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
155 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGING WILL FINALLY PUT AN END TO OUR DAILY ROUNDS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY...DEPARTING
LARGE TROUGH MAY STILL MANAGE A LITTLE MINOR CONVECTION...OTHERWISE
LOOKING DRY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...TO RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE VALUES...AS 500MB HEIGHTS CREEP BACK UP DUE TO THE
RIDGING. FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING SHRA-TSRA IN PROGRESS...AND THAT IS
THE MAIN CONCERN...SEE TAFS FOR TIMING SPECIFICS. THERE WILL NOT
BE A LOT OF LIGHTNING BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT THE
CELLS WILL BE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS WITH RESULTING
RESTRICTIONS. THIS IS BEING FORCED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH NOW LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN TO CENTRAL NY/PA. BEHIND
THAT WAVE LATER THIS EVENING...SHRA-TSRA WILL GO AWAY BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND...RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS. KELM PROBABLY WORSE
THAN IFR VIS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
/EXCEPT LOCALIZED GUSTS IN VICINITY OF TSRA/ THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AND CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

MON AFT-WED...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG EARLY
EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

THU-FRI...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE PREDAWN VALLEY FOG KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ015>017-
     022>025-055.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
228 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

NYZ009-018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-
072-041830-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
228 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY IN COMBINATION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. WITH WIND FIELDS BEING LIGHT, ANY
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ015>017-022>025-055-PAZ038-041830-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-TIOGA-
BRADFORD-
228 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE SMITH VALLEY       42.40N  76.72W
08/03/2014  M1.21 INCH       SCHUYLER           NY   COCORAHS

            FELL IN 22 MINUTES. YARD WAS FLOODED AT A RATE NEVER
            SEEN AT THAT LOCATION.

&&

PN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     FLOOD            WAYLAND                 42.57N  77.59W
08/03/2014                   STEUBEN            NY   911 CALL CENTER

            RESPONDING TO A FLOODED BASEMENT IN TOWN OF WAYLAND
            ACCORDING TO SCANNER.

&&

MDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
301 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

NYZ017-018-031945-
CAYUGA NY-ONONDAGA NY-
301 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CAYUGA AND
EXTREME WESTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES...

* AT 259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.
  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SENNETT TO
  UNION SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SENNETT AT 330 PM EDT...
  ELBRIDGE AT 340 PM EDT...
  THROOPSVILLE AND JORDAN AT 345 PM EDT...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4299 7644 4277 7674 4279 7674 4283 7672
      4288 7672 4290 7674 4296 7672 4303 7661
      4303 7650 4310 7651 4311 7648 4313 7648
      4314 7645

DJP