Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
826 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WARM AND HUMID TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
815 PM UPDATE...
COMBINATION OF A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...A LAKE BREEZE...AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS YIELDED AXIS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR AND MOHAWK VALLEY. VERY WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE COLUMN...AND ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD DRIFT IF ANY
FOR THE MEAN STEERING WINDS...HAS LED TO RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH PER HOUR FOR SOME AREAS AND SOME BACKBUILDING/TRAINING.
ALSO...BEING PULSE TYPE IN NATURE...A FEW OF THE CELLS HAVE
MANAGED EARLY IN THEIR LIFE CYCLES TO HAVE STRONG GUSTS
IMMEDIATELY UNDER THEM...AS WELL AS BRIEF HAIL CORES WITH SIZES UP
TO QUARTERS. WE HAVE HAD TO ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY...A COUPLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS...AND OTHER STATEMENTS. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND WE EXPECT
THINGS TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR IN THE MEANTIME ESPECIALLY FOR VERY LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. AFTER THAT...WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
MOIST YET FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
100 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES... THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE TO BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY IS BEST DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING. SUNDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE CWA... THUS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS AS WE
WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE PORTION OF THE PASSING TROUGH.

MONDAY AND TUES WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THUS THE
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE A RISING TREND. WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
TROFFING CONTINUES EAST OF THE MS RVR TO START OFF THE LONG TERM
WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING NR THE FOUR-CRNRS REGION THE FIRST SVRL PDS.
GIVEN THE PATTERN EXPECT SLGT CHC-CHC SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH AFTN
UNTIL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WL AVG
OUT NR NORMAL BFR BEGINNING TO WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IN VERY NEAR TERM IS ONGOING TSRA KRME-KSYR AREAS
THROUGH 02Z...THEN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN FOR KELM /IFR OR
WORSE 08Z-13Z/ AND AT LEAST SOME EARLY MORNING MIST FOR
KAVP-KBGM-KITH. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING RESTRICTIONS LATER
TONIGHT FOR KRME AS WELL...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THUS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD /OUTSIDE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF STORMS/
WILL BE VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTH 0-5 KTS. SCT SHRA-TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...NOT YET IN TAFS FOR TERMINALS DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS INVOLVED.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-WED...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG EARLY
EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

THU...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE PREDAWN VALLEY FOG KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-031730-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THESE SHOWERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
703 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NYZ015-022-022345-
STEUBEN NY-YATES NY-
703 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL YATES AND NORTH CENTRAL
STEUBEN COUNTIES...

* AT 702 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRANCHPORT...AND
  MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BRANCHPORT AND BLUFF POINT AT 710 PM EDT...
  GUYANOGA AT 730 PM EDT...
  ITALY HILL AND ITALY AT 745 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4268 7713 4255 7702 4249 7715 4254 7721
      4258 7737 4260 7737

/DJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N HORNELL             42.35N  77.66W
08/02/2014                   STEUBEN            NY   PUBLIC

            STORM WITH STRONG GUSTS. SMALL BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

MDP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
719 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             LODI                    42.61N  76.82W
08/02/2014  M1.00 INCH       SENECA             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MDP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
749 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             ROME                    43.23N  75.49W
08/02/2014  M1.00 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

&&

MDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
754 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NYZ015-016-030045-
SENECA NY-YATES NY-
754 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN YATES AND WEST
CENTRAL SENECA COUNTIES...

* AT 753 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
  LINE EXTENDING FROM KENDAIA TO BLUFF POINT...AND MOVING NORTHWEST
  AT 5 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  YATESVILLE AT 815 PM EDT...
  MAC DOUGALL AT 820 PM EDT...
  FRIEND AT 830 PM EDT...
  BENTON AND BELLONA STN AT 835 PM EDT...
  FERGUSON CORNERS AND POTTER AT 845 PM EDT...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4276 7732 4277 7731 4277 7699 4279 7698
      4287 7699 4288 7697 4297 7697 4298 7694
      4274 7677 4257 7712

/DJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
913 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NYZ018-036-030200-
MADISON NY-ONONDAGA NY-
913 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND
NORTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES...

* AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRIDGEPORT...AND
  MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BRIDGEPORT AT 925 PM EDT...
  CICERO AT 945 PM EDT...
  LOWER SOUTH BAY AT 955 PM EDT...
  BREWERTON AT 1000 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4323 7609 4321 7608 4321 7604 4319 7601
      4319 7596 4318 7594 4306 7594 4306 7610
      4324 7615 4324 7612

/DJP