Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
306 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND CONTINUATION
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. LATEST
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE OF LINES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ONE LINE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AT 850MB PER
LATEST 19.18Z RAP...AND THE SECOND LINE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE COLD/WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...THE LATEST 19.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA. EXPECT THE LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IOWA TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. THE 19.12Z GFS/NAM AND 19.18Z INDICATE 1.5 TO 2
INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WITH THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVECT IN A
DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AND MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST 19.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE SEVERAL IMPULSES TO
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER LAKES REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE 19.12Z GFS/NAM HAVE ISSUES WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF EACH IMPULSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS DO HINT
AT A STRONGER IMPULSE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE 19.12Z
NAM SHOWS 0-3KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH THIS FEATURE AND
SURFACE BASE AND 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF OVER 3000 J/KG OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE 19.12Z GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE
0-3KM SHEAR OVER FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE IMPULSE
FARTHER SOUTH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...WITH
THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE IS LOW AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE TRACKS OF EACH IMPULSE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE
INDICATED BETWEEN THE 19.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...WITH TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 19.12Z
GFS/GEM CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE ECMWF DIGS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS
ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
THE 19.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ADVECTING COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE PLUS 5 TO PLUS 10
DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

STEADY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH ABSENCE OF CAP TODAY
TRIGGERING CONTINUES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE
AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR AVIATION BUT ALSO
LOOKING AHEAD AT POSSIBLE LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AS
MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS MIDWEST. WHILE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL BE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL FOCUS ON
WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. STRONGER STORMS COULD KEEP WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL STILL TRY TO TIME A THUNDERSTORM RISK
WINDOW BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN TO MAINLY VFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
TRANSITION INTO ZONAL FLOW PROMISES A BIT QUIETER WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MANY AREA
SOILS ARE WELL SATURATED. WITH ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THE
POTENTIAL EXIST OF FURTHER FLASH FLOODING OR AREAL FLOODING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MANY AREA
RIVERS HAVE RISEN OR RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PLUS...SOME OF THE RIVERS ARE FORECASTED TO RISE TO NEAR MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
FORECAST ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-
     053>055-061.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...TJS
HYDROLOGY...DTJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-201100-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
315 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WHILE ONE AREA OF STORMS EXITS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...WITH A HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING RISK...ANOTHER LINE OF
STORMS HAS ALREADY FORMED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THAT TOO WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND IMPACT AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THIS EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 9 PM.

THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS... WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THAT COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. STRONGER LINES OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND OF COURSE LIGHTNING. OUTSIDE OF FLOODING...THE RISK
FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS HIGHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...THERE COULD BE A RISK
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STORMS TRACK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTER ACTIVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 35 IN MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED FOR ANY AREA.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME.

RIECK/SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
337 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SE WAUKON             43.22N 91.41W
06/19/2014                   ALLAMAKEE          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            13 ROADS CLOSED OR HAVE WATER OVER THEM AFTER WATER HAD
            RECEDED EARLIER. STREET FLOODING IN WAUKON AS WELL.

&&

SHEA

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