Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS La Crosse, WI

362 
WGUS73 KARX 190829
FFSARX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
329 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

IAC005-037-043-065-089-191-WIC023-043-191245-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140619T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FAYETTE IA-CLAYTON IA-HOWARD IA-ALLAMAKEE IA-CHICKASAW IA-
WINNESHIEK IA-CRAWFORD WI-GRANT WI-
329 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN FAYETTE...CLAYTON...HOWARD...ALLAMAKEE...CHICKASAW...
WINNESHIEK...SOUTHERN CRAWFORD AND GRANT COUNTIES...

AT 327 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN FROM IONIA IOWA TO ELGIN IOWA TO HAZEL GREEN IN SOUTHWEST 
WISCONSIN. SINCE 9 30 PM WEDNESDAY...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 3 TO 6 
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE GRANGER AND NEW HAMPTON AREAS TO HARDIN IN 
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND BETWEEN SINSINAWA AND HAZEL GREEN IN SOUTHERN 
GRANT COUNTY. STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED CRESCO AND FLOODED 
BASEMENTS IN OSSIAN. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH 5 AM 
SOUTH OF A ELMA IOWA TO PLATTEVILLE WISCONSIN LINE

THE YELLOW RIVER NEAR POSTVILLE IS AT 12.06 FEET. THIS 5 FEET ABOVE 
ITS 7 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... 
CHESTER...LIME SPRINGS...KENDALVILLE...RIDGEWAY...PROTIVIN... 
CALMAR...NORDNESS...OSSIAN...AND CASTALIA...AND POSTVILLE IN 
NORTHEAST IOWA. IN ADDITION...RESIDENTS ALONG THE UPPER IOWA... 
SILVER CREEK...TURKEY...TROUT CREEK...AND THE YELLOW RIVER.

IN ADDITION...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WARNING AREA WILL CAUSE 
MUD SLIDES NEAR STEEP TERRAIN. THE MUD SLIDE CAN CONSIST OF 
ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 9072 4267 9085 4267 9089 4264 9090
      4264 9102 4287 9162 4291 9254 4350 9254
      4350 9185 4310 9043 4251 9042 4251 9063

$$

BOYNE

421 
WGUS73 KARX 191002
FFSARX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
502 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

IAC005-037-043-065-089-191-WIC023-043-191245-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140619T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FAYETTE IA-CLAYTON IA-HOWARD IA-ALLAMAKEE IA-CHICKASAW IA-
WINNESHIEK IA-CRAWFORD WI-GRANT WI-
502 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN FAYETTE...CLAYTON...HOWARD...ALLAMAKEE...CHICKASAW...
WINNESHIEK...SOUTHERN CRAWFORD AND GRANT COUNTIES...

AT 457 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN 
POTOSI WHERE A MUDSLIDE HAS OCCURRED. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN 
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN WITH ONE REPORT OF 3.67 INCHES SINCE IN FORT 
ATKINSON IOWA. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WARNING AREA WILL CAUSE MUD SLIDES NEAR
STEEP TERRAIN. THE MUD SLIDE CAN CONSIST OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION
AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES FROM THE TURKEY 
AND YELLOW RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 9072 4267 9085 4267 9089 4264 9090
      4264 9102 4287 9162 4291 9254 4350 9254
      4350 9185 4310 9043 4251 9042 4251 9063

$$

HALBACH

926 
WGUS73 KARX 191145
FFSARX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
645 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

IAC005-037-043-065-089-191-WIC023-043-191245-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140619T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FAYETTE IA-CLAYTON IA-HOWARD IA-ALLAMAKEE IA-CHICKASAW IA-
WINNESHIEK IA-CRAWFORD WI-GRANT WI-
645 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN FAYETTE...CLAYTON...HOWARD...ALLAMAKEE...CHICKASAW...
WINNESHIEK...SOUTHERN CRAWFORD AND GRANT COUNTIES...

AT 638 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS 
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.  3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE 
FALLEN WITH 4.90 INCHES REPORTED IN OSIAN IOWA. A NUMBER OF ROADS 
HAVE BEEN CLOSED...PARTICULARLY IN 
CHICKASAW...WINNESHIEK...ALLAMAKEE AND GRANT COUNTIES. A FEW 
ROCKSLIDES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN CRAWFORD AND GRANT COUNTY AS WELL. 
FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WARNING AREA WILL CAUSE MUD SLIDES NEAR
STEEP TERRAIN. THE MUD SLIDE CAN CONSIST OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION
AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN THE YELLOW RIVER FROM OSIAN IOWA DOWN 
TO VOLNEY IOWA AND THE TURKEY RIVER FROM FORT ATKINSON IOWA TO 
ELKADER IOWA. TRIBUTARY RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL CREST THIS MORNING 
BUT THE MAIN STEM RIVERS MAY NOT CREST UNTIL TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 9072 4267 9085 4267 9089 4264 9090
      4264 9102 4287 9162 4291 9254 4350 9254
      4350 9185 4310 9043 4251 9042 4251 9063

$$

HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1231 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE 12C
700 MB CAP AND IN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION A 30 TO 40 KNOT 850 MB JET IS SURGING
INTO THIS AREA. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE HAS DRAMATICALLY INCREASED FROM SIOUX FALLS INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN
1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS GREATHER THAN 4 KM...HEAVY
RAIN WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER THE RAP ANALYSIS DOES SUGGEST THAT THE 0-6 KM
SHEAR WILL BECOME SUPERCELLULAR BETWEEN NOW AND 1 AM...THIS COULD
RESULT IN POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LATEST
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LATEST 18.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHIFT THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE INTO FORECAST AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY. WITH SUBTLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO FORM AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 03-06Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION
OF WHERE THE MCS WILL FORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT WHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER FORECAST AREA. THE 18.12Z
GFS/NAM AND 15Z RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH EXTENDING
UP TO 4KM PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FORECAST AREA WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. THE 18.12Z
GFS/NAM SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND TRACK ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEXT CONCERN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE 18.12Z
GFS/NAM INDICATE MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND 0-3KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS SUGGEST ALL SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER...AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR
SHOWS ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKING AT DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
THREATS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH EACH IMPULSE...SHOULD ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 18.12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
HAVE IMPACTS ON TIMING OF MOISTURE RETURN/PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT CONCERN ARE
TEMPERATURES FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DIFFERING SLIGHTLY ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW COOL
AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE 18.12Z ECMWF
ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE 18.12Z GFS.
THE 18.12Z ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUS 10 TO PLUS 12
DEGREES CELSIUS OVER FORECAST AREA...COMPARED TO PLUS 12 TO PLUS
14 DEGREES CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES BY THE 18.12Z GFS.
TEMPERATURES OVER FORECAST AREA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BETWEEN 19.10Z AND
19.13Z THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP TO 4 KM. THE COMBINATION
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

ALSO...DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...THE
CEDAR...TREMPEALEAU AND BLACK RIVERS HAVE RISEN OR ARE FORECASTED
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
PORTIONS OF THESE RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
EXACT FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DTJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-191200-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
1142 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG STORMS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WHERE STORMS CAN BECOME ANCHORED AND PERSIST WITH HEAVY
RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO PROVIDE A THREAT FOR THOSE
OUTDOORS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL COULD
ALSO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DISCERN IF THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE REALLY HELP OUR
FLOOD FORECASTING. FLOODING REPORTS ARE ALSO APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME.