Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
425 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

FORECAST TIME WAS SPENT ON IMMEDIATE CONVECTION AND FLOODING
ISSUES...AND THEN THE EVOLUTION AND THREATS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

ONGOING CONVECTION HAS BEEN REALLY HITTING NORTHEAST IOWA HARD
WITH HEAVY RAIN IN A NEARLY STAGNANT BAND FROM CRESCO TO NEAR
POSTVILLE. RADAR ESTIMATES ARE 5-7 INCHES IN THAT AREA WITH LEGACY
AND DUAL POL...AND IF WE ARE CONSERVATIVE...AT LEAST 4 INCHES HAS
FALLEN ON THAT BAND. THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE THE COMPLEX SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH AS THE COLD POOL DEEPENS. ANOTHER COMPLEX IN
CENTRAL MN IN NOW CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST
TIED TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THAT COMPLEX WILL CLIP THE NORTHWEST MOST
FORECAST AREA WITH STORMS THIS MORNING...BUT THE MAIN STORY IS
NORTHEAST IOWA.

LATEST RAP TRENDS ARE STEADY AND LEND CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHWARD INTO NRN MN AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD
IL/I-80 AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLD
POOL DEEPENING SHOULD MOVE THE CONVECTION OUT OF NORTHEAST IA AND
SOUTHWEST WI AS THE EARLY MORNING PROGRESSES. 1000 J/KG MUCAPE
LINE PER SPC ANALYSIS IS NOW FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO CHICAGO AND SOUTH
WITH STILL SOME 2000J/KG VALUES TOWARD KALO IN NORTHEAST IOWA. SO
PLENTY OF ENERGY FOR RAINFALL MAKERS.

THE DAYTIME HOURS SEEM TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ONLY TO BUILD CAPE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY. THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY LYING UP AGAIN NEAR A KAEL-KDBQ LINE BY
EVENING. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONVECTING THE THE WARM
FRONT BUT BELIEVE THE CAP SHOULD HOLD AND ALLOW CAPE TO BUILD WITH
NO REAL FORCING ON THAT BOUNDARY EXCEPT WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WYOMING
THAT WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH THE
COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...A SLOWER
PROGRESSION THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. THE LATEST 19.05 AND 19.06
HRRR RUNS HAVE COME TO EXACTLY WHAT OUR VISUALIZATION IS FOR THE
LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A BREAK...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND FORMING A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING.

WIND SHEAR WITH THIS CONVECTION IS ONLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER AND
WEAK TO MODERATE...MAYBE 20-25 KTS. WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING
FAVORING A LINE OF CONVECTION AND 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTED
WEST-EAST...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THREAT THAT
IS FAVORED. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT WITH MAIN WIND
THREAT COVERAGE WEST OF MISS RIVER. WOULD THINK THAT WI STILL HAS
A CHANCE AT DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LESS IN COVERAGE. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE TO THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME LIMIT TO THE RAINFALL BUT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES AND THE SAME AIR MASS AS
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY...1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN COULD AFFECT MOST AREAS. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM WOULD BE
IF THE WARM FRONT DOES CONVECT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER AND
FORCING INCREASES...AS THAT WOULD PROVIDE A LONGER DURATION RAIN
CHANCE NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF WARM FRONT. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HERE IS THE GOOD NEWS SECTION FOR THOSE THAT HAVE ENDURED
FLOODING. FRIDAY WILL BE A DRYING DAY WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR MASS OF 1.8 INCHES SHIFTING EAST POST-FRONTALLY...AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES OF 1.25 INCHES COMING INTO THE AREA /ABOUT
125-150 PERCENT NORMAL/. CONVECTIVE CHANCES STILL ARE AROUND WITH
WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS
BETTER FRIDAY AFTER THIS HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER MOVES THROUGH. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...AND RAINFALL COULD STILL BE
MODERATE IN RATE...BUT IT SEEMS LESS ORGANIZED EXCEPT FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THESE DAYS APPEAR TO BE DRY AND TEMPERATURES PRETTY NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BETWEEN 19.10Z AND
19.13Z THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

HAVE DECIDED TO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO 7 AM FRIDAY.

MANY AREA SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. LOOKS LIKE ANYWHERE FROM 3-7 INCHES OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY HIGHER WHEN THE TOTALS COME IN THIS MORNING...HAS FALLEN
SINCE SUNDAY IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. WITH A DELAY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO MORE ON PEAK HEATING THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT...DECIDED TO EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. DO THINK TONIGHTS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE BUT STILL COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES VERY
RAPIDLY AND THOSE AREAS THAT ARE VULNERABLE WILL SEE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. THERE MAY ALSO BE EXISTING AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN
PLACE FROM CURRENT RAINFALL IMPACTS. KIND OF A MESS FROM A
SERVICE/PRODUCT STANDPOINT.

RIVERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA WILL NEED AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD WARNINGS
IT APPEARS. WE WILL ASSESS THIS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT
APPEARS THE UPPER IOWA AND TURKEY RIVERS WILL NEED WARNINGS. THE
TURKEY BASIN TOOK A BIG HIT TO THE HEADWATERS...AND AM HOPING THE
CURRENT RAINS KEEP MOVING SOUTH TO AVOID A TOTAL BASIN POUNDING
AND MORE MODERATE LEVEL FLOODING. THE YELLOW RIVER NEAR POSTVILLE
WAS ABOUT 6 FEET OVER FLOOD STAGE AND ALTHOUGH WE DONT ISSUE
FORECASTS THERE...IT WILL PROBABLY RISE ANOTHER 2-3 FEET TO NEAR
18. THAT IS A STEEP RIVER IN THAT AREA AND THIS IS DANGEROUS
FLOODING...BUT IT IS ALSO MAINLY PASTURE LAND.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-
     053>055-061.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-191200-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
1142 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG STORMS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WHERE STORMS CAN BECOME ANCHORED AND PERSIST WITH HEAVY
RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO PROVIDE A THREAT FOR THOSE
OUTDOORS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL COULD
ALSO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DISCERN IF THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE REALLY HELP OUR
FLOOD FORECASTING. FLOODING REPORTS ARE ALSO APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
229 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW HAMPTON             43.06N 92.31W
06/19/2014                   CHICKASAW          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE BLOWN DOWN

0115 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MUSCODA                 43.19N 90.43W
06/19/2014                   GRANT              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING. SOME ROADS BLOCKED OFF.

0130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      POSTVILLE               43.08N 91.57W
06/19/2014                   ALLAMAKEE          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            YELLOW RIVER IS OUT OF ITS BANK BETWEEN WAUKON AND
            POSTVILLE.

&&

BOYNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
238 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     FLASH FLOOD      OSSIAN                  43.15N 91.76W
06/19/2014                   WINNESHIEK         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODED BASEMENTS

&&

BOYNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
301 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CRESCO                  43.37N 92.12W
06/18/2014                   HOWARD             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING

&&

BOYNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
430 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

MNZ086-094-191030-
DODGE-MOWER-
430 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DODGE AND NORTHWESTERN
MOWER COUNTIES...

AT 429 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF FARIBAULT TO NEAR NORTHWOOD...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...DODGE CENTER...MANTORVILLE...KASSON...HAYFIELD...WEST
CONCORD...BROWNSDALE...CLAREMONT...AND BLOOMING PRAIRIE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4419 9305 4420 9268 4385 9268 4385 9269
      4380 9268 4367 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 230DEG 19KT 4421 9323 4352 9321

HALBACH