Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

166 
WWAK47 PAJK 151750
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
850 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014

AKZ019-151900-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140215T1800Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
850 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

SNOW HAS CHANGED OVER TO RAIN ALL THE WAY UP THE HAINES HIGHWAY
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. REPORTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM 5.3 AT HAINES TO 18 INCHES AT
THE BORDER AS OF THIS MORNING.

$$

AKZ018-160100-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140216T0100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
850 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY FROM SKAGWAY TO WHITE
  PASS.

* SNOW...UPWARDS OF 16 TO 22 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SO FAR ON
  THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 5
  INCHES EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS SNOW RATES SLOWLY DROP. EXPECT
  STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 27 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON
  WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR WHITE PASS.

* MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO
  HIGH WATER CONTENT. DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO LOTS OF
  SNOW ON THE ROAD AND LOW VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

568 
WWAK47 PAJK 152041
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1141 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014

AKZ018-152145-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140216T0100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1141 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

SNOW HAS DIMINISHED IN SKAGWAY AND UP ON WHITE PASS. SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS STILL FALLING IN SKAGWAY CURRENTLY BUT IT HAS STOPPED
FARTHER UP THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN IN THE
2 FOOT RANGE ALL ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...VERY COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TODAY.

 WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORIES AS INHERITED FROM NIGHT
SHIFT LOOKED GOOD AND WERE ON TRACK, SO NOT A LOT TO DO THERE
EXCEPT MONITOR THE SITUATION. LATE IN THE DAY, SOME LOCATIONS
SWITCHED OVER TO RAIN OR SNOW JUST PLAIN ENDED. DECIDED TO LET
THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS EXPIRE ON TIME WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR YAKUTAT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY, HOWEVER.

 WITH A VERY STRONG STORM FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH, FOCUS TODAY WAS PRIMARILY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW
AND HOW STRONG WINDS WOULD BE OVER LAND AND SEA. RESULTING
PRESSURE FIELD RUNS PARALLEL TO LYNN CANAL AND CHATHAM STRAIT,
VERY MUCH COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THOSE MARINE ZONES IN
TERMS OF DIRECTION AND SPEED. WENT WITH A LARGE AREA OF STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES FOR TOMORROW AND, WITH
THIS MUCH WIND ALONG THE OUTER COAST, THE DECISION TO GO WITH
EITHER HIGH WIND WARNINGS OR STRONG WIND HEADLINES DOMINATED MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SHIFT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH
SUPPORTS HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER COAST AND STRONG WIND
HEADLINES OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THE APPROACHING
WARM FRONT AND THE ATTENDANT STABLE AIR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
SHOULD PREVENT SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. IN THE END, DECIDED ON HIGH END STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES WITH STRONG WINDS OVER A
SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE INTERIOR ZONES.

 APPROACHING WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE OUTER COAST WILL SEE
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS
MAY REMAIN AT OR NEAR THEIR LATE AFTERNOON VALUES.

 USED NAM AS A FOUNDATION FOR PRESSURE AND WIND TODAY. POP AND
QPF ADJUSTED WITH GEM, GFS, AND ECMWF. TEMPS, SNOW LEVEL
UNCHANGED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

 .LONG TERM...THINGS ARE STARTING TO QUIET DOWN IN THE LONG RANGE
BUT NOT BEFORE WE HAVE A FEW MORE BURSTS OF WINTER WEATHER. THE
FIRST OF WHICH IS THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE WIND ON SAT.
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL MAKE ITSELF KNOWN SAT NIGHT AS THE
WEAKENING FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT WITH IT TO DROP AROUND A
QUARTER TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. WHETHER THAT WILL BE SNOW DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU ARE. THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE LIKELY WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW.
ICE STRAIT CORRIDOR IS QUESTIONABLE AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT IF ANY SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAKES IT UP TO EITHER PLACE THEY COULD EASILY MIX WITH RAIN.
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS SAT NIGHT DUE TO SOME WARMER TEMPS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME RAIN MIXING IN IN SOME LOCATIONS.

 INTO MONDAY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS COOLER
AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THINGS GET A BIT INTERESTING ON SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THERE IS THE
 POSSIBILITY OF YET ANOTHER STORM RIDING NE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. NOT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS THOUGH.
ONLY THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ARE SHOWING THIS, THE GEM HAS A LOW
GOING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RATHER THEN BARANOF ISLAND, AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW HEADING EAST OVER SOUTHERN
HAIDA GWAII. THESE DIFFERENCES RESULT IN EITHER MORE PRECIP AND
SOME WIND FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON (ECMWF AND NAM), OR A DRIER
SCENARIO AND LESS WIND (GFS AND OTHERS). DECIDED ON STARTING TO
TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT HAS GENERALLY DONE A DECENT JOB
REPRESENTING THE VARIOUS STORMS THIS WEEK.

 PAST MONDAY, MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BECOMING LARGER AS A UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GULF MIDWEEK. THIS HAS THE GENERAL
RESULT OF PUSHING THE NORTHERN GULF LOW SLOWLY TO THE SE. THERE
ARE STILL SEVERAL WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND SOME MAY
BE SENT TOWARD THE PANHANDLE BUT TIMING IS NOT VERY GOOD BETWEEN
THE MODELS NOR IS HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE. GENERAL TREND IS FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW
BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ021>024-026-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018>021-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-033>036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-032-053.

&&

FRITSCH/EAL