Storm Warning 6, NWS Juneau, AK

368 
FZAK67 PAJK 150724 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1024 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-160130-
1024 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTH TO NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON
SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  

$$

PKZ310-160130-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1024 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E OF 140W...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT
LATE. ELSEWHERE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. STRONGEST WINDS
EASTERN PORTIONS. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.



$$

551 
FZAK67 PAJK 151252
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-160100-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL TRACK NORTH TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-160100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF 141W...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 26 FT BY LATE MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING
TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF 141W...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25
KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...VERY COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TODAY.

 WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORIES AS INHERITED FROM NIGHT
SHIFT LOOKED GOOD AND WERE ON TRACK, SO NOT A LOT TO DO THERE
EXCEPT MONITOR THE SITUATION. LATE IN THE DAY, SOME LOCATIONS
SWITCHED OVER TO RAIN OR SNOW JUST PLAIN ENDED. DECIDED TO LET
THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS EXPIRE ON TIME WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR YAKUTAT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY, HOWEVER.

 WITH A VERY STRONG STORM FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH, FOCUS TODAY WAS PRIMARILY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW
AND HOW STRONG WINDS WOULD BE OVER LAND AND SEA. RESULTING
PRESSURE FIELD RUNS PARALLEL TO LYNN CANAL AND CHATHAM STRAIT,
VERY MUCH COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THOSE MARINE ZONES IN
TERMS OF DIRECTION AND SPEED. WENT WITH A LARGE AREA OF STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES FOR TOMORROW AND, WITH
THIS MUCH WIND ALONG THE OUTER COAST, THE DECISION TO GO WITH
EITHER HIGH WIND WARNINGS OR STRONG WIND HEADLINES DOMINATED MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SHIFT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH
SUPPORTS HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER COAST AND STRONG WIND
HEADLINES OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THE APPROACHING
WARM FRONT AND THE ATTENDANT STABLE AIR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
SHOULD PREVENT SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. IN THE END, DECIDED ON HIGH END STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES WITH STRONG WINDS OVER A
SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE INTERIOR ZONES.

 APPROACHING WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE OUTER COAST WILL SEE
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS
MAY REMAIN AT OR NEAR THEIR LATE AFTERNOON VALUES.

 USED NAM AS A FOUNDATION FOR PRESSURE AND WIND TODAY. POP AND
QPF ADJUSTED WITH GEM, GFS, AND ECMWF. TEMPS, SNOW LEVEL
UNCHANGED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

 .LONG TERM...THINGS ARE STARTING TO QUIET DOWN IN THE LONG RANGE
BUT NOT BEFORE WE HAVE A FEW MORE BURSTS OF WINTER WEATHER. THE
FIRST OF WHICH IS THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE WIND ON SAT.
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL MAKE ITSELF KNOWN SAT NIGHT AS THE
WEAKENING FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT WITH IT TO DROP AROUND A
QUARTER TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. WHETHER THAT WILL BE SNOW DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU ARE. THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE LIKELY WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW.
ICE STRAIT CORRIDOR IS QUESTIONABLE AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT IF ANY SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAKES IT UP TO EITHER PLACE THEY COULD EASILY MIX WITH RAIN.
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS SAT NIGHT DUE TO SOME WARMER TEMPS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME RAIN MIXING IN IN SOME LOCATIONS.

 INTO MONDAY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS COOLER
AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THINGS GET A BIT INTERESTING ON SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THERE IS THE
 POSSIBILITY OF YET ANOTHER STORM RIDING NE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. NOT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS THOUGH.
ONLY THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ARE SHOWING THIS, THE GEM HAS A LOW
GOING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RATHER THEN BARANOF ISLAND, AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW HEADING EAST OVER SOUTHERN
HAIDA GWAII. THESE DIFFERENCES RESULT IN EITHER MORE PRECIP AND
SOME WIND FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON (ECMWF AND NAM), OR A DRIER
SCENARIO AND LESS WIND (GFS AND OTHERS). DECIDED ON STARTING TO
TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT HAS GENERALLY DONE A DECENT JOB
REPRESENTING THE VARIOUS STORMS THIS WEEK.

 PAST MONDAY, MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BECOMING LARGER AS A UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GULF MIDWEEK. THIS HAS THE GENERAL
RESULT OF PUSHING THE NORTHERN GULF LOW SLOWLY TO THE SE. THERE
ARE STILL SEVERAL WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND SOME MAY
BE SENT TOWARD THE PANHANDLE BUT TIMING IS NOT VERY GOOD BETWEEN
THE MODELS NOR IS HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE. GENERAL TREND IS FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW
BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ021>024-026-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018>021-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-033>036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-032-053.

&&

FRITSCH/EAL