Storm Warning 11, NWS Juneau, AK

880 
FZAK52 PAJK 150716 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1016 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-151400-
1016 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A DEVELOPING STORM FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTH TO NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON
SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  

$$

PKZ041-151400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1016 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 15
FT INCREASING TO 19 FT LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-151400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1016 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-151400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1016 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. GUSTS
TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS BUILDING TO 29 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 23
FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.



$$

PKZ051-151400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1016 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AND INCREASING TO 40
KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-151400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1016 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...N 25 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO
28 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. SNOW LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

599 
FZAK52 PAJK 151253
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL TRACK NORTH TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT BY AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 13
FT LATE. SE SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT BY AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. SE
SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT BY AFTERNOON.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. SE
SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
SW 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT BY LATE
MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. SE
SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 15 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PART. WINDS BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 23 FT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART BY LATE
MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO
13 FT LATE. SE SWELL IN THE EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
343 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...VERY COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TODAY.

 WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORIES AS INHERITED FROM NIGHT
SHIFT LOOKED GOOD AND WERE ON TRACK, SO NOT A LOT TO DO THERE
EXCEPT MONITOR THE SITUATION. LATE IN THE DAY, SOME LOCATIONS
SWITCHED OVER TO RAIN OR SNOW JUST PLAIN ENDED. DECIDED TO LET
THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS EXPIRE ON TIME WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR YAKUTAT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY, HOWEVER.

 WITH A VERY STRONG STORM FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH, FOCUS TODAY WAS PRIMARILY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW
AND HOW STRONG WINDS WOULD BE OVER LAND AND SEA. RESULTING
PRESSURE FIELD RUNS PARALLEL TO LYNN CANAL AND CHATHAM STRAIT,
VERY MUCH COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THOSE MARINE ZONES IN
TERMS OF DIRECTION AND SPEED. WENT WITH A LARGE AREA OF STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES FOR TOMORROW AND, WITH
THIS MUCH WIND ALONG THE OUTER COAST, THE DECISION TO GO WITH
EITHER HIGH WIND WARNINGS OR STRONG WIND HEADLINES DOMINATED MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SHIFT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH
SUPPORTS HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER COAST AND STRONG WIND
HEADLINES OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THE APPROACHING
WARM FRONT AND THE ATTENDANT STABLE AIR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
SHOULD PREVENT SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. IN THE END, DECIDED ON HIGH END STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES WITH STRONG WINDS OVER A
SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE INTERIOR ZONES.

 APPROACHING WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE OUTER COAST WILL SEE
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS
MAY REMAIN AT OR NEAR THEIR LATE AFTERNOON VALUES.

 USED NAM AS A FOUNDATION FOR PRESSURE AND WIND TODAY. POP AND
QPF ADJUSTED WITH GEM, GFS, AND ECMWF. TEMPS, SNOW LEVEL
UNCHANGED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

 .LONG TERM...THINGS ARE STARTING TO QUIET DOWN IN THE LONG RANGE
BUT NOT BEFORE WE HAVE A FEW MORE BURSTS OF WINTER WEATHER. THE
FIRST OF WHICH IS THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT ALL THE WIND ON SAT.
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL MAKE ITSELF KNOWN SAT NIGHT AS THE
WEAKENING FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT WITH IT TO DROP AROUND A
QUARTER TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. WHETHER THAT WILL BE SNOW DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU ARE. THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE LIKELY WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW.
ICE STRAIT CORRIDOR IS QUESTIONABLE AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT IF ANY SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAKES IT UP TO EITHER PLACE THEY COULD EASILY MIX WITH RAIN.
EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST AREAS SAT NIGHT DUE TO SOME WARMER TEMPS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME RAIN MIXING IN IN SOME LOCATIONS.

 INTO MONDAY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS COOLER
AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THINGS GET A BIT INTERESTING ON SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THERE IS THE
 POSSIBILITY OF YET ANOTHER STORM RIDING NE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. NOT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS THOUGH.
ONLY THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ARE SHOWING THIS, THE GEM HAS A LOW
GOING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE RATHER THEN BARANOF ISLAND, AND
THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW HEADING EAST OVER SOUTHERN
HAIDA GWAII. THESE DIFFERENCES RESULT IN EITHER MORE PRECIP AND
SOME WIND FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON (ECMWF AND NAM), OR A DRIER
SCENARIO AND LESS WIND (GFS AND OTHERS). DECIDED ON STARTING TO
TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT HAS GENERALLY DONE A DECENT JOB
REPRESENTING THE VARIOUS STORMS THIS WEEK.

 PAST MONDAY, MODEL DISAGREEMENTS BECOMING LARGER AS A UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GULF MIDWEEK. THIS HAS THE GENERAL
RESULT OF PUSHING THE NORTHERN GULF LOW SLOWLY TO THE SE. THERE
ARE STILL SEVERAL WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND SOME MAY
BE SENT TOWARD THE PANHANDLE BUT TIMING IS NOT VERY GOOD BETWEEN
THE MODELS NOR IS HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE. GENERAL TREND IS FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW
BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ021>024-026-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018>021-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-033>036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-032-053.

&&

FRITSCH/EAL