Storm Warning 1, NWS Juneau, AK

379 
FZAK52 PAJK 040823 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1123 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-041400-
1123 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE PANHANDLE FRI
NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR SW GULF SAT WILL MOVE N ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUN AND PUSH A STRONG WEATHER FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ041-041400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1123 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. W
SWELL.
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-041400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1123 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. W
SWELL.
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT LATE.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ043-041400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1123 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. W
SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ051-041400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1123 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ052-041400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1123 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT
LATE. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

535 
FZAK52 PAJK 041258
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-050100-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTANT STORM IN THE FAR
WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SAT THEN OVER THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUN. 

$$

PKZ041-050100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-050100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-050100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-050100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-050100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
348 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS RIDGING
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS HAS CREATED
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE FLATTENING
RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE HAS CREATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AND MOVE OVER
THE PANHANDLE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF WILL PUSH A WEATHER FRONT NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GULF LATER SATURDAY.

 WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING TONIGHT EXPECT THAT THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. SOME SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES BUT VERY LITTLE
ACCUMULATION CAN BE ANTICIPATED. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AS THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS PERSIST. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE STEADY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER THE
YAKUTAT AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR SNOW TO FALL AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES TO FALL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST WEEK
EXPECTING A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WITH UP TO
1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

 WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE KEEPS VERY LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE GULF WITH
STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE CAPE SUCKLING MARINE ZONE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MARINE
ZONES 43 AND 51 BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE FRONT. TIGHTENING
EAST-WEST GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN CROSS SOUND
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A PARALLEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH CHANNELS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS.

 USED THE ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 &&

 .LONG TERM... LITTLE CHANGE TO WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD MOVING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS BEFORE WEAKENING. FRONTS ASSOCIATED WHIT THESE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OVER THE AK GULF AND THEN OVER THE PANHANDLE BRINGING
BANDS OF STRONGER WINDS AND PRECIP. TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND MID 20S TO LOW 30S
FOR THE NORTHERN REGION. EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE DAY TIME FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT WITH A MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK HAVE BEGUN TO TREND TEMPERATURES UP BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE REGION STILL
KEEPING SOME LOCATIONS BELOW FREEZING.

 THE STORM FORCE FRONT IN THE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THE HEAVY
PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AK GULF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF SUNDAY. WHILE
MOST MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF FEATURE THAT WILL KEEP PRECIP OVER
THE REGION BUT THE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A WEAK OPEN WAVE TO A
CLOSED LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE. PRECIP SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT WILL CHANGE OVER THE RAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE COLD TEMPS ALONG THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AS SNOW. DO EXPECT AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL TO
BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THIS TIME
EXPECTING 12 HOUR SNOW TOTALS IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE FOR THE
HAINES AND HAINES HIGHWAY REGION WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 11 INCHES POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE BORDER.
WHILE SKAGWAY AND THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY WILL STAY COLD ENOUGH THE
FRONT AND HEAVIEST PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH
SO ONLY EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

 THE PARENT LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE ALEUTIANS TOWARDS THE BERING
SEA SUNDAY AS A SECOND LOW MOVES MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
WITH ANOTHER GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AK GULF MONDAY
REACHING THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY. BY THIS TIME MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN OUT OF SYNC AND SEEING A LARGE SPREAD IN POSITION AND
LOCATIONS OF THE DEVELOPING LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS IN THE
GULF. STILL EXPECT WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

 WHILE THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPING
WAVE IN THE GULF THEY WERE IF FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE PARENT LOW.
LEANED MORE TOWARD AN ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH RESULTED IN
NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3. BEGAN
TO BLEND IN FORM 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR DAY FOR WITH THE NEXT
ADVANCING LOW THEN USED NEW WPC THROUGH DAY 8. WPC NOW USING AN
ECMWF ENSEMBLE BLEND AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS DETERIORATED.
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH
DROPS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE NEXT SYSTEMS.
SOME LOW CONFIDENCE INITIALLY WITH SOME DETAILS ESPECIALLY SNOW
TOTALS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

TPS/PRB